Quid Game Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 @Huggy incoming in 3,2,1 to say but 125,000 people a month are coming off their fixed term deals and onto more expensive ones. Then <insert generic stupid mortgage holders and it’ll be an interesting few months> comment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huggy Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 16 minutes ago, Quid Game said: @Huggy incoming in 3,2,1 to say but 125,000 people a month are coming off their fixed term deals and onto more expensive ones. Then <insert generic stupid mortgage holders and it’ll be an interesting few months> comment. People are aware of the facts now, no need to remind everybody on a weekly basis. Mid to late April for a gentle reminder of this I think. It is very good fun though, so I will leave this here instead. It's 2023, and I may have to set up an account to get some 2024 stories out there in one place, but it's a heartwarming Good Friday read for now https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/cost_of_living/4717388-fixed-mortgage-ends-2023-support-thread?page=11 I have selected some of my favourite quotes, just from the final page, for everyone's benefit. Quote my rate goes up from 1,180.00pcm to 1,760.00 Quote I assume rates will not go down to the 1%\2% they once were - so I’ll probably fix - but that makes me feel a bit sick too! It’s such an increase. Quote my mortgage goes up by £530 pounds per month. very painful Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
70PC Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 33 minutes ago, Quid Game said: @Huggy incoming in 3,2,1 to say but 125,000 people a month are coming off their fixed term deals and onto more expensive ones. Then <insert generic stupid mortgage holders and it’ll be an interesting few months> comment. 9 minutes ago, Huggy said: People are aware of the facts now, no need to remind everybody on a weekly basis. Mid to late April for a gentle reminder of this I think. No, no, no, Huggy. Keeping that message on the front page helps sellers make better decisions. People who bought for £300 four years when mortgage rates were 2% are now trying to offload them at £450 with current mortgage rates at 5%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 9 minutes ago, 70PC said: No, no, no, Huggy. Keeping that message on the front page helps sellers make better decisions. People who bought for £300 four years when mortgage rates were 2% are now trying to offload them at £450 with current mortgage rates at 5%. Sellers thinking people's hard earned pay rises belong to them.......can now borrow more so can suck up more debt to buy their rubbish.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huggy Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 8 minutes ago, 70PC said: No, no, no, Huggy. Keeping that message on the front page helps sellers make better decisions. People who bought for £300 four years when mortgage rates were 2% are now trying to offload them at £450 with current mortgage rates at 5%. I could reword it. 4,000 people come off their sucker rates today. Another 4,000 tomorrow too, and so on, for the rest of the year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 31 minutes ago, Huggy said: People are aware of the facts now, no need to remind everybody on a weekly basis. Mid to late April for a gentle reminder of this I think. It is very good fun though, so I will leave this here instead. It's 2023, and I may have to set up an account to get some 2024 stories out there in one place, but it's a heartwarming Good Friday read for now https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/cost_of_living/4717388-fixed-mortgage-ends-2023-support-thread?page=11 I have selected some of my favourite quotes, just from the final page, for everyone's benefit. I think quoting this thread does your argument more harm the good, given the thread fizzles out so completely in Sep 2023 about when mortgage rates came down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 21 hours ago, Sackboii said: It's all starting to filter down through to the masses anyway - random people I talk to are telling me "I've never seen so many houses for sale..", and a lot of the streets I go down are starting to look like this (without the 'sale agreed' and 'sold' banners I might add..) : This is what Im seeing. To answer the thread title - most people are on 2, 5 and maybe the odd 10y fix. Unlike the early 90s where everyone was on floating rates, this time theres a slow ramp up to peak pain. Thing is, as ates are not going sub 2% that pain is coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huggy Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 (edited) 45 minutes ago, mynamehere said: I think quoting this thread does your argument more harm the good, given the thread fizzles out so completely in Sep 2023 about when mortgage rates came down Only picked that as it was a yearly thread with quite a few pages. 2024 only appeared to have small individual threads, but I am delighted to announce that following literally minutes of Googling, I am able to present the 2024 cohort of marks. https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/cost_of_living/4997973-mortgage-payment-increase And as part of my mood improvement programme, I am pleased to also present examples from page 1. Quote Our 2 year fixed mortgage rate runs out soon. I knew we’d have to pay more but it’s going up £800 to £2.5k!!! Quote Ours is going from 530>720 Quote Ours has gone from £1800 to £2800, Quote Ours went from £765 to £1000 Quote My rate went from 1.89% to 4.24%. Thankfully my remaining mortgage is small, 62k, but it still stung. Quote Ours went from 1.89% to 4.28% so that was an increase of £1200 to £1600 29,000 per week, every week, this year. With payments improving in one direction, always Edit. Who's CrashyTime from the last page? I like you. Edited March 29 by Huggy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 3 minutes ago, Huggy said: Only picked that as it was a yearly thread with quite a few pages. 2024 only appeared to have small individual threads, but I am delighted to announce that following literally minutes of Googling, I am able to present the 2024 cohort of marks. https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/cost_of_living/4997973-mortgage-payment-increase And as part of my mood improvement programme, I am pleased to also present examples from page 1. 29,000 per week, every week, this year. With payments improving in one direction, always Happiness is different for each! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
70PC Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 52 minutes ago, Huggy said: I could reword it. 4,000 people come off their sucker rates today. Another 4,000 tomorrow too, and so on, for the rest of the year 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 23 hours ago, Dweller said: Don't know if anyone else has already posted this https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-13197819/Why-Britains-homeowners-surviving-higher-mortgage-rates.html Why Britain's homeowners are surviving much higher mortgage rates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Just now, staintunerider said: I just thought this sums it up perfectly. The UK RE market is fascinating in it's bizarre refusal to adapt to funadamentals straight off like the US, Canada and Europe is eg Germany....we've been so drunk for so long(remember the US had a crash after 08) we really don't do sober anymore and this includes the Govt and Institutions, they're basically just crossing their fingers that the show will go on or those pesky new fundamentals will revert back to the extraordinary fundamentals that cause all this of which there have been a succession of crazy, crazier and utter lunancy. So without crazy, crazier and utter lunacy coming back what do you think happens next ? Unless you're one of the drunks full of hopium and alcohol ? This is what happens: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 (edited) 4 minutes ago, staintunerider said: I just thought this sums it up perfectly. The UK RE market is fascinating in it's bizarre refusal to adapt to funadamentals straight off like the US, Canada and Europe is eg Germany....we've been so drunk for so long(remember the US had a crash after 08) we really don't do sober anymore and this includes the Govt and Institutions, they're basically just crossing their fingers that the show will go on or those pesky new fundamentals will revert back to the extraordinary fundamentals that cause all this of which there have been a succession of crazy, crazier and utter lunancy. So without crazy, crazier and utter lunacy coming back what do you think happens next ? Unless you're one of the drunks full of hopium and alcohol ? This is what happens: Oh and it already is btw regardless of the BS House Price Indices from vested interests....etc Many of the sales are just folk swapping housing equity..mate sold 3 bed semi to a little old lady who was downsizing for ***** sake in case her grandkids want to stay over with her once in a blue moon.... Edited March 29 by staintunerider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 hour ago, Huggy said: I could reword it. 4,000 people come off their sucker rates today. Another 4,000 tomorrow too, and so on, for the rest of the year And the only reason rates are sub 6% is because the markets believe the fed is going back to QE and so they are frontrunning that trade, happy to buy £1 TRILLION new treasures that are being issues every 100 days! Not to mention all the other sovereign and corporate debt being issued. Once the markets realise the fed is not going back to QE, all hell will break loose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 3 minutes ago, nero120 said: And the only reason rates are sub 6% is because the markets believe the fed is going back to QE and so they are frontrunning that trade, happy to buy £1 TRILLION new treasures that are being issues every 100 days! Not to mention all the other sovereign and corporate debt being issued. Once the markets realise the fed is not going back to QE, all hell will break loose. We are in an uptrend in inflation and uptrend in interest rates that will be interrupted from time to time by countertrend moves, such as we had in the 1970s, but the long-term trend in the next 20 to 30 years is for inflation to accelerate and for interest rates to move up Marc Faber He did allow for short term rate reductions(which will obviousy be celebrated by mortgage junkies) but they will be merely a blip and just crowd pleasers. What shocks me is that so called professionals in the money markets think contrarian to this, they are nothing but loons in reality because they are just addicts to perverse financial measures. The Asset managers should celebrate this because they can finally get some yield without going to junk status investments but I guess they are all in up to their doo dahs because they wonder about the long term effects on stocks in their portfolios now there is no cheap money around. The real smart money will be working on how to bet against the hopium and denial out there and profit from the realignment. I will tell you something on a Joe Public level, having seen the 90's downturn for a whole decade once you are in negative equity and your asset value is falling you are merely a passenger. You have 2 options throw in the towel and bail or carry on meeting your contractual obligations, most will try and do the latter until that option is taken away from them by accelerating debt service costs or job loss or both. What is very important to understand if you're a big mortgage jockey, fixed rates are pathetic in the UK in terms of duration, in the 90;s rates were actually falling, the crack up boom of the 80's happened with actually quite high interest rates and prices did not recover when rates fell. This time rates are alreay higher and may go higher still, fixed rates will end, asset prices will eventually start to fall and those falls will accelerate and even plummet at some point. It's a bit like coming out of the sauna, going into a pub and noticing you have drunk 4 pints and don't even feel the need to head to the gents, at some point you will and then you will again and then again...except with the real estate correction it's going to take a lot longer to flush all that decades of insanity out of the system. It will happen, this is just the phony war like back in 1939 then the real **** suddenly happens! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 minute ago, staintunerider said: What is very important to understand if you're a big mortgage jockey, fixed rates are pathetic in the UK in terms of duration, in the 90;s rates were actually falling, the crack up boom of the 80's happened with actually quite high interest rates and prices did not recover when rates fell. For those who don;t know there was a moment in circa 93/94 when the **** hit the fan and rates went back up to very high levels for a a few days to save the pound...it was well into double digits.... Had this crisis not been averted house prices which had in London and the South East already corrected by around 50% in many cases would likely have gone back to late 1970's prices And Tenyearstogetmymoneyback would be called 20yearstogetmymoneyback Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 2 hours ago, Huggy said: my mortgage goes up by £530 pounds per month. very painful To put the economic effect of this into context, every four of those is the equivalent of one minimum wage job being withdrawn from the economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 (edited) 1 hour ago, Huggy said: Only picked that as it was a yearly thread with quite a few pages. 2024 only appeared to have small individual threads, but I am delighted to announce that following literally minutes of Googling, I am able to present the 2024 cohort of marks. https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/cost_of_living/4997973-mortgage-payment-increase And as part of my mood improvement programme, I am pleased to also present examples from page 1. 29,000 per week, every week, this year. With payments improving in one direction, always Edit. Who's CrashyTime from the last page? I like you. The thing that jumps out at me are the ones who are leveraged up right up the wazoo, they will likely sell or end up folding(better to sell yourself than have it done for you, forebearance is always only temporary). These will be the margin sellers either the OO or the lender and they create downward pressure by setting new lows Don;t trust the housing indices as I'm sure they already massaging them out of the stats. Those indices are not transparent and would not be allowed in any other financial markets for that reason. There is all manner of stuff you can do with an index unless you are actually interested in the validity of an index and i highly suspect that is not their agenda whatsoever. Their agenda is simply index growth and that is not the right metric for an index provider....they are vested interests pure and simple. They deal in the money creation and profit of the market. Falling markets are bad news for them. Trouble is like loons who have blown a bubble on the their little soap bottle rings, remember those ? they are unmanageable and always eventually the inevitable happens... And boy oh boy have they all tried to avoid the inevitable Edited March 29 by staintunerider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Bank of England says UK is coping with higher interest rates https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-of-england-interest-rates-cuts-121635602.html Translation: there's no need for us to cut rates anytime soon. However, the main takeaway from this article is the effects of the rates rises are only just past the halfway point so there's a lot more pain to come: "About 45% of fixed-rate mortgage holders are still facing higher monthly repayments when they reprice their mortgage by the end of 2026." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 12 minutes ago, fellow said: Bank of England says UK is coping with higher interest rates https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-of-england-interest-rates-cuts-121635602.html Translation: there's no need for us to cut rates anytime soon. However, the main takeaway from this article is the effects of the rates rises are only just past the halfway point so there's a lot more pain to come: "About 45% of fixed-rate mortgage holders are still facing higher monthly repayments when they reprice their mortgage by the end of 2026." Translation: House prices are Plateaud at 5% rates. Once we cut them in spring 🌱 it'll be off to the races again. 🐎 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frederico Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 The UK has become good at something once again, kicking the can down the road. it’s very frustrating but there we are, I have no idea what will happen, but I keep hearing stories of adult offspring moving back home as they can’t afford anywhere to live independently. If we do get any sort of correction, the news will be full of sob stories and more support scams will be forthcoming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 8 hours ago, staintunerider said: And Tenyearstogetmymoneyback would be called 20yearstogetmymoneyback 🤐 I might have been better off. When I sold, my loan to value was about 0.2 and the mortgage was down to about six months salary. Having always thought I would buy a repossessed mansion I actually ended up out of the market for nine years (love does strange things). Seeing my girlfriends property increase by about 5 x my salary over that period was unexpected and very disappointing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Seen a slew of Reddit posts, all fearing imminent rises in their mortgage rates (all on super low current fixes). some talking about not being able to cope. the crunch point come mostly over this summer, plenty of people who remortgaged in the last 6 months, has opportunities to fix when rates were lower, so very few had the large % increase like those remortgaging this summer. Also plenty who came of 5 year fixes in the last 12 months didn’t have the 1% rates from that long ago anyway. the true pain is concentrated in those both who both got the lower rates, and bought the covid peak (extended to the max in FOMO panic) AND missed out on being able to lock in rates as they rose rapidly. its a fairly finite section of buyers. But is a very concentrated pain. The ability to extend mortgage rates to 30+ years won’t help those who already bought on those terms, however there is always interest only, the mighty can kick. its going to cause some serious pain at X point in the future. BUT that’s the future so who cares? my personal idea of hell, renting from the bank forever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Homeowners don't need to survive higher mortgage rates ffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Debtors do.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.