Stewy Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 Slightly down on the previous month's reading but good for a winter month in the doldrums and rates at 5.25%. There's no stopping the juggernaut 🤔 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huggy Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 49 minutes ago, Stewy said: Slightly down on the previous month's reading but good for a winter month in the doldrums and rates at 5.25%. There's no stopping the juggernaut 🤔 Well done. What are you going to spend your monthly winnings on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 (edited) 55 minutes ago, Stewy said: Slightly down on the previous month's reading but good for a winter month in the doldrums and rates at 5.25%. There's no stopping the juggernaut 🤔 It's seasonally adjusted. It looks like it's reached a turning point and starting to fall. The delusion will be ending now mortgage rates are going up and no props have been announced in the budget. Edited March 7 by fellow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 it’s quite a sustained rise, knocking on the door of all time high its looking like anyone who delayed buying when they had the means, made a bad call this time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frederico Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 Anyone who buys now is mad or absolutely has to, or has sold at a decent price. For anyone else it’s extremely risky. If rates and growth continue on a path close to the current trend, there will be a huge amount of pain. The tories like labour before them have managed to kick the can a bit further than I hoped. The economy can only be saved with rates at 2% or below. Anything above 4% and a meltdown is coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual-observer Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 There's no surge coming when BTL lending has collapsed the way it has. You need rampant BTL lending and property flipping to get a sustained surge, that's not happening this year at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankie Teardrop Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 No props in the budget suggests the spring bounce is over before it even really began. Its election year though, here and elsewhere, I dont expect the big falls to really kick in until Labour (& Trump) get in and make a real hash of things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MerchantNavy Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 24 minutes ago, frederico said: Anyone who buys now is mad or absolutely has to, or has sold at a decent price. For anyone else it’s extremely risky. If rates and growth continue on a path close to the current trend, there will be a huge amount of pain. The tories like labour before them have managed to kick the can a bit further than I hoped. The economy can only be saved with rates at 2% or below. Anything above 4% and a meltdown is coming. That's what this forum has been saying for 20 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidan Ap Word Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 1 hour ago, mynamehere said: it’s quite a sustained rise, knocking on the door of all time high its looking like anyone who delayed buying when they had the means, made a bad call this time Meanwhile in a small burrough in the SE (LR data, actuals, and with significant lag): In TN6 it peaked at 571, recent transactons acerage 413. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sackboii Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 Quote Halifax HPIs +0.4% MoM +1.7% YoY What a load of b0ll0cks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted March 7 Author Share Posted March 7 1 hour ago, Sackboii said: What a load of b0ll0cks. What's your preferred metric today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dweller Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/mar/07/uk-house-prices-near-2022-peak-after-fifth-monthly-rise-in-a-row UK house prices near 2022 peak after fifth monthly rise in a row Halifax says prices grew by 1.7% on an annual basis with the average UK house now costing £291,699 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sackboii Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 Just now, Stewy said: What's your preferred metric today? Metric today, or lack of it, is the problem. The metric today shows LR data that is pretty much 6-8 months ago. Let's see.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted March 7 Author Share Posted March 7 Just now, Sackboii said: Metric today, or lack of it, is the problem. The metric today shows LR data that is pretty much 6-8 months ago. Let's see.. "Just you wait...give it another few months...years...decades" 😭 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sackboii Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 Just now, Stewy said: "Just you wait...give it another few months...years...decades" 😭 Unlike some, I have absolutely no interest on whether prices rise or fall. But I can spot VI bullshoite when I see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huggy Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 2 hours ago, MerchantNavy said: That's what this forum has been saying for 20 years. And we've been right for two decades. 2008 actually happened, and 15 years of nought.point.fkall% interest rates happened too. That certainly didn't make us wrong as the next few years will prove without any doubt. You could drink a bottle of vodka every day for 20 years and be 'fine'. Those doctors don't know nothing eh! A year later the doctors show why they earn the above average bucks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MerchantNavy Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 13 minutes ago, Huggy said: And we've been right for two decades. 2008 actually happened, and 15 years of nought.point.fkall% interest rates happened too. That certainly didn't make us wrong as the next few years will prove without any doubt. You could drink a bottle of vodka every day for 20 years and be 'fine'. Those doctors don't know nothing eh! A year later the doctors show why they earn the above average bucks As a renter, I want a full crash but I just don't see it happening until all the MPs have got rid of their property portfolios. They will tank the economy to keep house prices high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huggy Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 (edited) 41 minutes ago, MerchantNavy said: As a renter, I want a full crash but I just don't see it happening until all the MPs have got rid of their property portfolios. They will tank the economy to keep house prices high. I don't think they're clever or powerful enough. It seems that the GDP game, that you get more points for higher house prices (or implied rents or whatever shyte they call it) and more immigrants, is in full swing across the globe. This puts upward pressure on prices but the Fed and the markets are bigger and nastier than the millionnaire landlord and Remainer Tony Blair. He does not call the shots here Jay Powell will bitch slap that grin from his reptilian face, I bet my future house purchase on it! Edited March 7 by Huggy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sackboii Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 5 minutes ago, Huggy said: the millionnaire landlord and Remainer Tony Blair. He does not call the shots here Jay Powell will bitch slap that grin from his reptilian face, I bet my future house purchase on it! 😆 ✔️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckmojo Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 The whole thing is surreal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pebbles Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 7 hours ago, fellow said: It's seasonally adjusted. It looks like it's reached a turning point and starting to fall. The delusion will be ending now mortgage rates are going up and no props have been announced in the budget. This forum users really can't help themselves hpc bingo when data doesn't fit the narrative. This is bad data for house price crash hopes. Yet this response is the first response. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 42 minutes ago, Pebbles said: This forum users really can't help themselves hpc bingo when data doesn't fit the narrative. This is bad data for house price crash hopes. Yet this response is the first response. The recession hasn't finished yet. Just because a market is rising today, that doesn't mean it won't fall tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pmax2020 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 1 hour ago, Pebbles said: This forum users really can't help themselves hpc bingo when data doesn't fit the narrative. This is bad data for house price crash hopes. Yet this response is the first response. Perhaps, but we’ve had 2-3 years of particularly high inflation and house prices fall below that trajectory. In Scotland I can give plenty of examples of houses not shifting at 2021/2022 price points, yet in that time average wages have risen 10-15%. My observations are that prices have fallen about 5% in Scotland, so a real terms fall of at least 10% in the last couple of years. Look at this detached house in Edinburgh - ‘offers over 365k’. The last two of that build type sold for 386k July 2023 & 415k June 2023. Similar 3 beds in same estate sold for 404k October 2022! https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/145463369 So I respectfully view such indexes with skepticism… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pebbles Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 41 minutes ago, fellow said: The recession hasn't finished yet. Just because a market is rising today, that doesn't mean it won't fall tomorrow. The recession has finished the BoE came out and said as much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 pointless trying to predict the future. But we can pretty confident that roughly 5% interest rates is much more likely to = flat nominal prices and low volume. Than any kind of nominal crash. If you happen to be on of the few (100s?) of people in the UK who benifit from real price falls, then congrats! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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