deerohdeer1 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, dugsbody said: Your mistake is thinking this is a UK problem. It is global. So any reasons high house prices need to consider why it is global, and any reason for "bursting the bubble" will need to consider the same. If fiat is going to continue to be debases and head towards "worthless" as many of you on here suggest, then having a large amount of debt at a fixed rate in that fiat currency is a very good strategy. That's why I do it and have done for the last 12 years. Your theory is flawed in logic but also in evidence. We can keep revisiting to see how it works out. I just didn't want to fight the tide and 2012 was as good a time in the past 20 years to get on the ladder you could dream of. That said there are limits to what prices can be achieved unless wages keep compounding, something that hasn't happened for the vast majority. It's a terrible investment vehicle and most with actual wealth understand this, especially in the age where it's possible to purchase stocks globally with a couple of taps of your finger as well as ISAs, premium bonds, forex, commodities, art or whatever floats your boat. If debt remains expensive, this will continue to have a devastating impact on house purchasing power as well as economic activity which produces work and wage pressure. Essentially it's all a gamble, does the pyramid collapse this year or in 100 years.. no idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 hours ago, staintunerider said: You've obviously never heard the saying real estate is local.... You simply haven't got the foggiest but go right ahead....its worked the last 12 years and you think it will continue you've been the beneficiary of cheap money and govt policy....a rigged game...you now have a tiger by the tail and you're going to be eaten because regardless of debasing fiat...wages are way behind the curve and debt servicing on that debasing fiat is getting and has gotten very expensive.... There are a number of folk who think they are geniuses the last 10/20 years when they were just in a rigged game to their advantage.... You are way overthinking stuff and at the same time ignoring some serious reality checks.....number one you're pobably not a property financial genius if you were just in on a one way bet.....however this time your rigged game is at an end .... 🤦♂️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) 2 hours ago, deerohdeer1 said: I just didn't want to fight the tide and 2012 was as good a time in the past 20 years to get on the ladder you could dream of. That said there are limits to what prices can be achieved unless wages keep compounding, something that hasn't happened for the vast majority. It's a terrible investment vehicle and most with actual wealth understand this, especially in the age where it's possible to purchase stocks globally with a couple of taps of your finger as well as ISAs, premium bonds, forex, commodities, art or whatever floats your boat. If debt remains expensive, this will continue to have a devastating impact on house purchasing power as well as economic activity which produces work and wage pressure. Essentially it's all a gamble, does the pyramid collapse this year or in 100 years.. no idea. Breaking down your post. Gamble - Yes, of course it is a gamble. But I'm very convinced that the game is rigged and I want to make sure my gamble is on the rigged side. I believe governments and central banks have enough power to keep rigging the game on that side for a long while yet. Debt remains expensive - debt is still not expensive. Mortgages are still cheap by historical standards. They're more expensive than the last 14 years, yes, and this has had an impact on prices. But at the same time we have had money printing and high inflation (including wage inflation), so this has partly counter-acted the impact of higher mortgage costs. And there is every sign that governments are itching for an excuse to lower rates again. Property is definitely not a terrible investment for an owner occupier given you have to live somewhere. I am far, far better off having held a mortgage than if I'd chose to rent. I purposely keep my mortgage high and don't overpay so I can put more money into pension and ISA (global equity funds). So I benefit from both. Does the pyramid collapse? This presupposes that it is a pyramid. And if you want to bet, then the you're going to have a very tiny chance that you're picking the correct moment just before property collapses (by how much?) as opposed to picking a moment where property continues or even just "not collapse" for another 10 years. Edited February 10 by dugsbody Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cy23 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just thought I'd share this although the news is from New Zealand: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/grim-warning-anz-picks-two-more-reserve-bank-rate-hikes-ahead/KK35EIGCIVBUDIRFRJYUABAHPE/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The bent western fiat printing system is groaning in agony, as it digs it's grave. The west has had a good run since 1945.......and now it's the desperate coffin dodger.......about to fall into the hole. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 10/02/2024 at 17:18, Social Justice League said: The bent western fiat printing system is groaning in agony, as it digs it's grave. The west has had a good run since 1945.......and now it's the desperate coffin dodger.......about to fall into the hole. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Not long now................ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankie Teardrop Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Piggies squealing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oliver Sutton Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 What caused the big jump around 1:30 today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sackboii Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 18 minutes ago, Oliver Sutton said: What caused the big jump around 1:30 today? U.S. inflation figures I suspect.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 hours ago, Frankie Teardrop said: Piggies squealing... 👍😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 09/01/2024 at 18:12, frosti2k2 said: The 10yr gilt has reached its short term bottom. Commodities and inflation are already rising. The next wave of inflation is occurring. How do I know? I don't...... Good call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, Sackboii said: U.S. inflation figures I suspect.. Yep, we had a double whammy today. UK wage growth and US inflation both fell less than expected. We will probably see another uptick tomorrow when the UK inflation figures are released? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Yield curve does not look a picture of health Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 hours ago, fellow said: We will probably see another uptick tomorrow when the UK inflation figures are released? Probably. I want to bookmark the above graph, you know; from the experts and come back to it mid summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 hours ago, Data Dave said: Probably. I want to bookmark the above graph, you know; from the experts and come back to it mid summer. The forecasts look a bit high to me. ✓ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 (edited) UK inflation remains unchanged at 4%. Yields lose all gains from yesterday: Edited February 14 by fellow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 24 minutes ago, fellow said: UK inflation remains unchanged at 4%. Yields lose all gains from yesterday: A classic dump-and-pump for gilts this week...it caught out many on here... 😉 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trump Invective Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 42 minutes ago, Stewy said: A classic dump-and-pump for gilts this week...it caught out many on here... 😉 I did a classic dump and pump this morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 17 hours ago, fellow said: UK inflation remains unchanged at 4%. Yields lose all gains from yesterday: Hmm. Lot of noise over the last few days. But still a material change since this thread was started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankie Teardrop Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Piggies still squealing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Frankie Teardrop said: Piggies still squealing... If the trend continues, rates will be going up once again. Strange how the BOE think inflation is going to hit 2% in April before gradually moving up again to time a rate hike soon after the election so that Labbie newboy gets the blame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sackboii Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 29 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said: If the trend continues, rates will be going up once again. Strange how the BOE think inflation is going to hit 2% in April before gradually moving up again to time a rate hike soon after the election so that Labbie newboy gets the blame. There is often some market reaction to any new government. With Labour, it's not usually good, although on the other hand it's unthinkable that it could get worse.. Still, @Stewy will be alright.. 😆 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual-observer Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 42 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said: If the trend continues, rates will be going up once again. Strange how the BOE think inflation is going to hit 2% in April before gradually moving up again to time a rate hike soon after the election so that Labbie newboy gets the blame. I suspect the real underlying issue is the next Govt is going to have it's hand forced to find real economic growth. That means tax cuts and it means austerity, can't see labour doing it therefore you're talking about another Truss moment brewing whereby investors smell risk brewing on the horizon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18 minutes ago, Sackboii said: There is often some market reaction to any new government. With Labour, it's not usually good, although on the other hand it's unthinkable that it could get worse.. Still, @Stewy will be alright.. 😆 The economic models they use have been perfected to a tee since 2008 and through the mockdowns. These obviously aren't the models they make public, instead acting like fool to make the unwary think they know little. I've seen the machinations behind the scenes to know there are some scarily smart people who know exactly what triggers to pull when the herd needs directing. We'll keep bumbling on...-0.2% growth here, +0.2% growth there...no protests about anything as people will still have an outlet on various daft internet forums Governments don't matter...life choices matter...be well friends ✓ and more importantly anti-fragile ✓✓✓ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.