Field of Nightmares Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 Citi Bank announced today that they don't see rates coming down until 2025 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 https://nitter.net/markets/status/1726090384659402921#m No rate cut, run-a-way inflation coming! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morty Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 13 minutes ago, Maghull Mike said: https://nitter.net/markets/status/1726090384659402921#m No rate cut, run-a-way inflation coming! lol just received not so lovely email today about these energy price increases, very prompt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdd Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 Energy price increase? But Stewy the Wizard told me prices were cratering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballyk Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 (edited) I don't particularly want or expect interest rates to fall, but there has been a big fall in world trade. You can see this in shipping rates falling, stock price of Maersk at 12 month low, OPEC talking about cutting output, etc, etc. The higher interest rates are clearly having the desired impact on demand throughout the world. Edited November 21, 2023 by Ballyk Accuracy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 29 minutes ago, cdd said: Energy price increase? But Stewy the Wizard told me prices were cratering. December gas down another 5% today 🙂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpg50000 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stewy said: December gas down another 5% today 🙂 Except that's completely irrelevant as the energy suppliers buy way in advance. Hence why the energy price cap is increasing in January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unmoderated Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 25 minutes ago, dpg50000 said: Except that's completely irrelevant as the energy suppliers buy way in advance. Hence why the energy price cap is increasing in January. I think the point being made is that the price for future delivery is falling in price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.steve Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 10 hours ago, Wurzel Of Highbridge said: They couldn't predict inflation on the way up, so they won't be able to on the way down either. That's not strictly accurate... The BoE has predicted inflation, frequently and regularly, since 1992... when it became their target. Of course, the prediction for inflation has always been the same: that it will return to target in the medium term given the decisions made by the Monetary Policy Committee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 9 hours ago, Unmoderated said: I think the point being made is that the price for future delivery is falling in price. Many posters don't like good news on here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unmoderated Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 6 hours ago, Stewy said: Many posters don't like good news on here. Haha, we could agree on that. But one man's good news can be another man's bad. The catastrophisers on here will never buy because house prices wont fall 50% in nominal terms. In my mind the best news would be for borrowing costs to at least be the level of CPI and house prices become cheaper in real terms. Personally the good news has been high inflation while being very fortunate to have remortgaged during Covid and getting a stupidly low interest rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unmoderated Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 15 hours ago, A.steve said: That's not strictly accurate... The BoE has predicted inflation, frequently and regularly, since 1992... when it became their target. Of course, the prediction for inflation has always been the same: that it will return to target in the medium term given the decisions made by the Monetary Policy Committee. Tail wagging the doggo my dear boy. If the BoE expected inflation to be off target in the medium term they'd take appropriate action, hence it always reverts to target in the models because the model factors in the appropriate action. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 7 hours ago, Stewy said: Many posters don't like good news on here. Not true. Sticky inflation and falling house prices have been celebrated all year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdd Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 From the autumn statement: Inflation is forecast by the independent budget watchdog to drop to 2.8% by the end of 2024, falling to the 2% target in 2025 Minimum wage 10% rise to £11.44 State pension rise 8.5% Benefits rise 6.7% National insurance reduced We live in the times of greed, where companies want to extract maximum profits. Therefore, inflation isn't falling back to 2% with rises such as these. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petetong Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 (edited) According to BBC today, comparing Jan 2021 and Oct 2023: food is 30% more expensive clothing is 25% more expensive energy 82% is more expensive all baked in. Edited November 22, 2023 by petetong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 4 hours ago, petetong said: According to BBC today, comparing Jan 2021 and Oct 2023: food is 30% more expensive clothing is 25% more expensive energy 82% is more expensive all baked in. Still all cheap. We all live like kings these days. Steak night out tonight 🥩 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.steve Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 (edited) 7 hours ago, Unmoderated said: Tail wagging the doggo my dear boy. If the BoE expected inflation to be off target in the medium term they'd take appropriate action, hence it always reverts to target in the models because the model factors in the appropriate action. I think you're missing the point with your K9 references, Pedigree Chum. The point was that the BoE did predict, and their prediction was always trivially predictable. I argue, the BoE always predicted - and that their prediction wasn't always either insightful or, ex-post, correct. Edited November 22, 2023 by A.steve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loving The Crash Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 On 21/11/2023 at 18:43, Field of Nightmares said: Citi Bank announced today that they don't see rates coming down until 2025 The BoE is also assuming no rate cuts in 2024 in its inflation projections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, Loving The Crash said: The BoE is also assuming no rate cuts in 2024 in its inflation projections. Above 4% until the start of 2027 per the most recent meeting. i.e. forever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petetong Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 3 hours ago, Stewy said: Still all cheap. We all live like kings these days. Steak night out tonight 🥩 Well you might be living large, but many aren't ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 On 21/11/2023 at 18:43, Field of Nightmares said: Citi Bank announced today that they don't see rates coming down until 2025 1 hour ago, Loving The Crash said: The BoE is also assuming no rate cuts in 2024 in its inflation projections. Whereas @Stewy of course is still saying that they should have cut in November and it's a 100% chance (✔️✔️✔️) they will do so in 22 days time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheResponsibleHouseBuyer Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 OBR end of 2024 = 2.8% inflation. BOE holding their foot over the break pedal as we speak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 3 hours ago, scottbeard said: Whereas @Stewy of course is still saying that they should have cut in November and it's a 100% chance (✔️✔️✔️) they will do so in 22 days time... We should in the 4%s already. 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unmoderated Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 12 hours ago, A.steve said: I think you're missing the point with your K9 references, Pedigree Chum. The point was that the BoE did predict, and their prediction was always trivially predictable. I argue, the BoE always predicted - and that their prediction wasn't always either insightful or, ex-post, correct. If you predict where your car will be down the road you'd put it in the middle of the lane. Why? Because you'll take actions all the way up to that point to keep the car in the middle of the lane. If your current course of action put you off target, in a field or a tree or the oncoming lane, you'd take action to steer back. BoE is (in this simple analogy) no different. If they predicted 10% inflation in the two year horizon it would assume they also have just taken their hands off the wheel. If they believe 10% inflation likely in two years they'd take action to control it, and vice versa. You're arguing then that all predictions turn out to be inaccurate. I would agree with that. It's the only certainty of a forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.steve Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 11 hours ago, Unmoderated said: If you predict where your car will be down the road you'd put it in the middle of the lane. Why? Because you'll take actions all the way up to that point to keep the car in the middle of the lane. If your current course of action put you off target, in a field or a tree or the oncoming lane, you'd take action to steer back. BoE is (in this simple analogy) no different. If they predicted 10% inflation in the two year horizon it would assume they also have just taken their hands off the wheel. If they believe 10% inflation likely in two years they'd take action to control it, and vice versa. The distinction is that, when I'm trying to drive (forwards) down the middle of the lane, I look through the windscreen. The BoE can't do similar - they look exclusively through the rear-view mirror. 11 hours ago, Unmoderated said: You're arguing then that all predictions turn out to be inaccurate. I would agree with that. It's the only certainty of a forecast. I disagree that all predictions turn out to be inaccurate. Some turn out to be accurate... because the person making the prediction has solid knowledge that you do not. I can predict that I won't fall into the Mediterranean sea within the next hour... because I have relevant information to which you are not a party. My prediction will prove accurate as a result. If you tried to make predictions about things I won't fall into in the next hour, your prediction (even if it sounds equally plausible) will be less accurate than mine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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