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Loving The Crash

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  1. ...or anything other than credit expansion/low interest rates for that matter We (yourself included I'm sure) of course all know this on here - and we all seem to agree that the crash will come when real interest rates rise. The only divide on the board seems to be between those that think that the bulk of the crash will occur in an environment of high nominal interest rates, and those that think it will occur in an environment of low nominal interest rates. I liked this video - thank you. Should be essential viewing for the entire population. BTL, Help to Buy etc are often cited
  2. +1 Correct. We're far more likely to get "Covid Bonds" and tax cuts than any tax rises.
  3. "Overseas investors own about 25% of UK gilts" https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/334/uk-economy/uk-national-debt/
  4. Peter Schiff has been lucky with his gold prediction, as have a lot of other people who have also fallen for the same fundamental misunderstanding that he has. i.e. that continued bond issuance bought by domestic buyers is inflationary. In fact, once the proportion of bonds held domestically in countries printing money rises to levels such as we see now, there is very little chance of high inflation. i.e. the potential effects of dollars held overseas being repatriated over a short timescale becomes progressively to look less like that of a tsunami, and more like that of a gentle rippl
  5. Greed is an emotion that drives the efficient allocation of capital. Inflation is a concept to measure monetary expansion. The more competitive a market, the less the possibility to increase prices in that sector - preventing greedy people from raising their prices at will. Soon we will be in an environment of prolonged deflation, and the firms operating in the least competitive markets may be able to hold their prices up for longer. There's a real lack of competition in some areas of tech at the moment e.g. search, social media, operating systems etc etc. Companies in these areas
  6. 1. No, it isn't 2. No, it wasn't 3. No, it doesn't 4. No, they're not 5. No, it doesn't 6. Yes, they can 7. No, they don't 8. No, we're not
  7. This is the worst possible thing to do right now - buy a house for cash. Real house prices have already been falling for 13 years. If you want to join the mortgage-free boomers, then be prepared to bend over, and join them in losing half your capital in real terms. If you instead paid rent, and invested your cash elsewhere over the next 10 years, you would be way better off than committing financial suicide like this. As others have said, 6% below asking price is not a cheeky offer - it is basically paying full price. Still, money isn't everything...but why not run some ca
  8. "The stamp duty hiatus could save thousands for landlords." Is this the real reason for the hiatus? A nice little window to shift properties into companies before the 20% tax relief cap on mortgage interest? Plus maybe a little bit of cashflow for the Treasury thrown in? 'I have all my accounts ready for the bank,' she says, 'but it is not a check I would normally expect my lender to make.' So lenders consider establishing the future earnings potential of the borrower not to be worth the due diligence. The investment stands up on its own does it? What assumptions would
  9. +1 This happened because the booming Chinese economy with its cheap labour created massive deflationary forces, and instead of keeping interest rates around their long term average and allowing the prices of goods to fall, Brown allowed the BOE to continue to target inflation of around 2%. This was pure economic mismanagement and ignorance coupled with unawareness and to a certain extent magical thinking. I get the feeling that Brown couldn't see what was happening, and instead thought that the feel good factor was a result of his own party's policies. In fact it was the result of
  10. Shocking. The forecast annual funding gap to maintain health and social care provision is estimated to be around £4bn in 5 years' time - and we have been waiting a long time for a Green Paper to be published to address this. Seems like small beer now. I'd rather they used the printed money to fund a massive national home building initiative - at least there would be some lasting benefit and some job creation - maybe the government will stumble upon this eventually...
  11. Don't forget 20 years of inflation - the FTSE has lost about a third in real terms over that period...
  12. +1 only at this rate it'll need to be more like 4-5 decades :)
  13. "William Hill blamed the government’s clampdown on fixed-odds betting terminals (FOBTs) as it warned that up to 900 betting shops could close, putting 4,500 jobs at risk. " Good riddance - I'm sick of the sight of these outlets everywhere. That's 4,500 more people available to engage in productive enterprises. If only the government could now address the massive army of estate agents and accountants etc adding nothing to the economy who are involved in property speculation. How is flipping a property not gambling? Or maybe we should all just hold those buy-to-let nudges for a bigg
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