Forced sales of goods (to keep paying mortgage).

[Brendan110_0]

Purchase from distressed mortgage holders, they'll obviously sell cars first, what bargains will be out there? 75" - 85" TV's, Hot Tubs (proper one not blow up), luxury watches etc.

[RentingForever]

Large clocks. Twigs in vases. Inspirational wall quotes.

[TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack]

16 minutes ago, RentingForever said:

Large clocks. Twigs in vases. Inspirational wall quotes.

😉 Those will pay for about 90 minutes of the new mortgage payments.

On the car front I work near a main dealer who now seems to have so much stock they will run out of space if they don't sell some. That might explain the "event" they have coming up.

[fellow]

Increased second hand sale activity will obviously eat into retail sales, cool inflation and exacerbate the recession.

Is there any evidence of this happening yet?

Edited August 23, 2023 by fellow

[Social Justice League]

I'll buy their house for 20k.

[The Angry Capitalist]

22 minutes ago, Brendan110_0 said:

Purchase from distressed mortgage holders, they'll obviously sell cars first, what bargains will be out there? 75" - 85" TV's, Hot Tubs (proper one not blow up), luxury watches etc.

There will be some mega bargains to be had especially for used cars.

Probably somewhere between 2025 - 2027.

Don't be tempted to buy as soon as prices will come down significantly. Many will buy too early thinking they will get bargains.

 

[Brendan110_0]

27 minutes ago, The Angry Capitalist said:

There will be some mega bargains to be had especially for used cars.

Probably somewhere between 2025 - 2027.

Don't be tempted to buy as soon as prices will come down significantly. Many will buy too early thinking they will get bargains.

 

Hope so, got my PCP car deal up in October 2024. Looking good equity wise so far, BMW got their assumptions wrong ha ha.

[PeanutButter]

Let me know when Rolex (direct) no longer has a waitlist, and the resale market drops.

That and Chanel handbags are useful indicators.

 

[winkie]

12 hours ago, fellow said:

Increased second hand sale activity will obviously eat into retail sales, cool inflation and exacerbate the recession.

Is there any evidence of this happening yet?

More signs about for car boot sales and garage sales.....still lots of donations to charity shops, must be from past years of excess consumption or having a clear out minimising lives, down sizing.....lots of preused stuff being sold/recycled on the tinternet, seeing more cars parked up with for sale signs and a telephone number.....two car families becoming one?😏

[Scorchio]

13 hours ago, fellow said:

Increased second hand sale activity will obviously eat into retail sales, cool inflation and exacerbate the recession.

Is there any evidence of this happening yet?

Anecdotally there are better offers to be had on eBay than there have been since around 2020.

This is very anecdotal on things I like such as guitar pedals and retro games but it seems like an indicator that disposable income is falling down.

It's worth looking also at what happens in the coming months with the likes of Klarna, PayL8r and all of the other short-term credit providers. You would expect that in times like these they would boom, but in fact it seems a lot of people used them in the 'good times' for non-essential purchases and now perhaps they won't buy those things at all.

[Wurzel Of Highbridge]

31 minutes ago, Scorchio said:

Anecdotally there are better offers to be had on eBay than there have been since around 2020.

This is very anecdotal on things I like such as guitar pedals and retro games but it seems like an indicator that disposable income is falling down.

I also see this with retro fruit machines (machines from the 80's and 90's) which were bought for 'man caves' and 'home bars'.

DJ equipment is also starting to surface, much of the gith end gear tucked away in self-storage.

Speaking of self-storage - Perhaps we'll see and end to the self-storage bubble that has plagued this country for the last 10 years?

[supermarioj]

Self storage is an interesting indicator in my view. I bought a sh*t box in 2018 and no way could I fit in all my accumulated cr*p so I've had to rent an industrial unit as well to store all my stuff and that has no space left!

[A.steve]

14 hours ago, The Angry Capitalist said:

There will be some mega bargains to be had especially for used cars.

Probably somewhere between 2025 - 2027.

Well that hasn't happened yet.  In 2023, every offer seems to be poor value for money - but the most over-priced cars are the sort I would want to buy next... a good quality, well specified, probably German, probably diesel, inconspicuous, capable, comfortable, reliable saloon... about 3 years old.

I suspect I'll still have a problem with that in 2025-2027... as... even if prices fall in general... I don't think people will have bought new, in 2021-2024, the car I want to buy second hand 3 years later.  I definitely don't expect there to be an abundance of suitable options driving down prices.  Come on debt-donkeys.... buy a lot of really nice cars on credit; light use and maintenance for 3 years, please - then try to sell them off at a tiny fraction of their new price.

Edited August 24, 2023 by A.steve

[supermarioj]

Yes, people blame all the furlough covid money for house prices but it also contributed to high car prices.

[Locke]

10 minutes ago, supermarioj said:

Self storage is an interesting indicator in my view. I bought a sh*t box in 2018 and no way could I fit in all my accumulated cr*p so I've had to rent an industrial unit as well to store all my stuff and that has no space left!

Did you at no point of shifting all your sh*t into storage think "I could just get rid of this"? We are plagued by too much stuff in our house, garage and shed and every day I want to chuck it.

[Greater Fool]

3 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

Let me know when Rolex (direct) no longer has a waitlist, and the resale market drops.

That and Chanel handbags are useful indicators.

 

The watch market is tanking, check out the site. We can't be too far off when you can walk into a Rolex AD and actually buy a watch.

https://watchcharts.com/watches/price_index

 

[supermarioj]

15 minutes ago, Locke said:

Did you at no point of shifting all your sh*t into storage think "I could just get rid of this"? We are plagued by too much stuff in our house, garage and shed and every day I want to chuck it.

Unfortunately not. Sadly, for completely irrational reasons, I have acquired too many motorbikes and have to store them somewhere! I bought my first house in 1983 (a 2 up 2 down terrace in SE20) and I think it had more space and garden than my present laughable 3 bed. 

[Scorchio]

34 minutes ago, A.steve said:

Well that hasn't happened yet.  In 2023, every offer seems to be poor value for money - but the most over-priced cars are the sort I would want to buy next... a good quality, well specified, probably German, probably diesel, inconspicuous, capable, comfortable, reliable saloon... about 3 years old.

Having recently replaced my car there is definitely a cooling off in certain areas of the market but it certainly hasn't reached the German big three. Still too many deano-box newbuilds that need them on the drive. I would suggest looking at Japanese brands to find a good deal. Lexus IS saloon's ended in 2021 for example.

[Armus]

Used TVs are almost worthless, there’s always a newer, better model released each year.

If any of them have gaming PCs they could sell them, or at least the graphics cards.

[A.steve]

4 hours ago, Scorchio said:

Having recently replaced my car there is definitely a cooling off in certain areas of the market but it certainly hasn't reached the German big three. Still too many deano-box newbuilds that need them on the drive. I would suggest looking at Japanese brands to find a good deal. Lexus IS saloon's ended in 2021 for example.

In the late 1990s, I had a well-specified Carina - which I liked - though my Avensis that followed it underwhelmed.  I loved the Lexus IS-200 and IS-300 of that era... in fact, I still do... but I'm no fan of the more recent efforts by Lexus.  If I became a billionaire, I think I'd buy a 1990s IS and then get it re-built with up-to-date engine, transmission, suspension, gearbox - etc.  I was very impressed by some 'sleeper' Lexus-IS builds that youtube opted to show me over the years.  As a non-billionaire, sadly, I'd need something less esoteric that'd promise more reliability.

I'm not sure I'd ever have been buying my German saloon after it had been owned by a Dino... I think I'd have been looking for one that had been run as an executive car for someone senior in a big company... then replaced because it had reached 3-years old.

[70PC]

20 hours ago, RentingForever said:

Large clocks. Twigs in vases. Inspirational wall quotes.

For sale - Highly sought after bunch of twigs and deceptively spacious modern detached wall clock with no chain. Offers over £15,000.   

[TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack]

7 hours ago, A.steve said:

In the late 1990s, I had a well-specified Carina - which I liked - though my Avensis that followed it underwhelmed.  I loved the Lexus IS-200 and IS-300 of that era... in fact, I still do... but I'm no fan of the more recent efforts by Lexus.  If I became a billionaire, I think I'd buy a 1990s IS and then get it re-built with up-to-date engine, transmission, suspension, gearbox - etc.  I was very impressed by some 'sleeper' Lexus-IS builds that youtube opted to show me over the years.  As a non-billionaire, sadly, I'd need something less esoteric that'd promise more reliability.

I'm not sure I'd ever have been buying my German saloon after it had been owned by a Dino... I think I'd have been looking for one that had been run as an executive car for someone senior in a big company... then replaced because it had reached 3-years old.

I have wasted more time looking for cars than I have spent on this site. The major problem is that over a million cars which would normally have been made and then sold in the U.K. didn't because of the pandemic. Things are getting more sensible but a year ago I was seeing 3 year old cars being listed for more than the RRP when they were new.

Regarding your desire for an executive saloon about five years ago we had a BMW 420D as a pool car at work for over a year. Apparently it was leased for some executive who then left leaving them wondering what to do with the car until the end of its lease.  

[Maghull Mike]

These people don't have anything, its ALL leased

Mike

[staintunerider]

On 23/08/2023 at 19:13, Brendan110_0 said:

Purchase from distressed mortgage holders, they'll obviously sell cars first, what bargains will be out there? 75" - 85" TV's, Hot Tubs (proper one not blow up), luxury watches etc.

seen the 99% loan ads are back

[staintunerider]

On 23/08/2023 at 19:34, TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack said:

😉 Those will pay for about 90 minutes of the new mortgage payments.

On the car front I work near a main dealer who now seems to have so much stock they will run out of space if they don't sell some. That might explain the "event" they have coming up.

I wonder if anyone knows if the PCP plans have lowered the Guaranteed Minimum Future Value.?....like insurance companies these dudes know what the score is ...although from one poster they seem to have made a bad call thus far...kind of makes me think the GMFV will be very conservative....

I handed a car back in fine fettle that had no equity in it....36 months i had the offer to purchase or return....it got returned...only pcp deal i have had....

Edited August 25, 2023 by staintunerider