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its going down! I think


spxy

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Four areas I looked at are all going down. No huge numbers but on average down by between 2% and 11%, the worst (11%) being in E11 (Zone 3 ?) where my step daughter lives.

What’s really apparent is that, although overall, prices are down, detached houses in my search areas appear to be increasing in value. Maybe it’s just the effect in the data of people with larger detached places downsizing to smaller places and that it’s just showing in the data as detached houses going up whereas in fact it’s just larger detached houses that are the ones being sold (possibly at lower prices than last year).

Another really apparent feature is the number of properties actually sold now verses say six months ago. It’s down by about 50% on average. Combine this with the number of listings of properties on the market, which probably has not far off doubled in the last six months, and it paints a pretty grim picture. This implies 75% of properties on the market are somewhat unaffordable to many and are just not selling, and the ones that are selling are selling for less.

Quite clear, no plateau.

 

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16 minutes ago, ExeC-UK said:

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=south_benfleet&startmonth=05&startyear=2022&endmonth=05&endyear=2023

My area shows opposite, which doesn't make sense.

Edit; Noticed the "properties sold" graph, which is very telling!

Same trend - detached houses up, but see my comments above, is it just bigger places being sold ?

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5 hours ago, spxy said:

Find you area on home.co.uk  and let's see which direction the market is going for you. The navigation is crap on the site select change location on the box top left

 

This is Poole

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=poole&startmonth=05&startyear=2022&endmonth=05&endyear=2023

Good one and thanks!  This was an eye opener.

image.png.660ee1c8e1c5edd0af506141b8551e43.png

image.png.b79597f63a992052f18a32c586996e7d.png

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2 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

Oh found it. Volumes still down 60% compared to 18/19 in Bristol. 

Volumes are down 15% even against May 2020 when the country was still in a semi-lockdown. 

NOTHING IS SELLING 

Don't worry / get your hopes up. According to @Stewy, this just means a permanently high plateau 🤣

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London compared to 2019 same picture 

Flats’ volumes are down 65%, terraced and semis around 50% detached 40%. 
 

Flat’s prices only up 2% compared to May 19. 
 

Roughly same price and NOTHING IS SELLING. 
 

Now the question is how reliable are those data and why hasn’t the Media took notice of them? 
 

Numbers are huge and quite frankly scary. 

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On 29/07/2023 at 08:34, spxy said:

Find you area on home.co.uk  and let's see which direction the market is going for you. The navigation is crap on the site select change location on the box top left

 

This is Poole

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=poole&startmonth=05&startyear=2022&endmonth=05&endyear=2023

My neck of the woods, good to see it falling. Painfully slowly watching, tho. Hopefully the speed will pick up in the upcoming quarters.

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3 hours ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

London compared to 2019 same picture 

Flats’ volumes are down 65%, terraced and semis around 50% detached 40%. 
 

Flat’s prices only up 2% compared to May 19. 
 

Roughly same price and NOTHING IS SELLING. 
 

Now the question is how reliable are those data and why hasn’t the Media took notice of them? 
 

Numbers are huge and quite frankly scary. 

if it's land registry, then only 25% of transactions are making it into the initial reports right now, so you really need to wait 3 months or so until the bulk of remaining transactions get added in. (there is a long tail too)

volumes for 3 months ago are not far off long term average, so it's possible volume has collapsed, but on other hand this tail off in volume is very much an expected artefact of the process

 

This site also lets you view asking prices up to July for same area, click the house price link on the left. 

Edited by mynamehere
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3 hours ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

London compared to 2019 same picture 

Flats’ volumes are down 65%, terraced and semis around 50% detached 40%. 
 

Flat’s prices only up 2% compared to May 19. 
 

Roughly same price and NOTHING IS SELLING. 
 

Now the question is how reliable are those data and why hasn’t the Media took notice of them? 
 

Numbers are huge and quite frankly scary. 

Yes, just think of all that "demand" that is now homeless somewhere, you would think that SKY/BBC would be all over this? Maybe someone should e-mail them......

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On 7/29/2023 at 9:28 AM, Sackboii said:

This implies 75% of properties on the market are somewhat unaffordable to many and are just not selling, and the ones that are selling are selling for less.

Even if people could afford them who would be wanting to buy at the moment ?
Probably a lower percentage of  people than those inside the ULEZ considering buying a Euro 6 Diesel car.

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32 minutes ago, TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack said:

Even if people could afford them who would be wanting to buy at the moment ?

No one I know is looking to move. Then again, no one I know is struggling financially, at least they’re not saying so if they are. Yes, things are tougher for many I know out there and they’re reigning their spending in accordingly.

But any thoughts of moving ? No chance..

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19 hours ago, mynamehere said:

if it's land registry, then only 25% of transactions are making it into the initial reports right now, so you really need to wait 3 months or so until the bulk of remaining transactions get added in. (there is a long tail too)

volumes for 3 months ago are not far off long term average, so it's possible volume has collapsed, but on other hand this tail off in volume is very much an expected artefact of the process

 

This site also lets you view asking prices up to July for same area, click the house price link on the left. 

I think It will be a fixed amount down, rather than a percentage , the same amount of work can be done each month. The 25% would have been the amount one particular month. If you go back three months on these chart there is still a massive drop in volumes.

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