dances with sheeple Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 7 hours ago, Unmoderated said: Agreed here. The pressure on affordability for existing mortgage holders will accelerate as more and more come of their fixed rates and are hit with going from 1-2% to 5-6%. I'm highly doubtful hammering a small but growing segment of people will get inflation under control anytime soon. FED also seems perplexed by trying to control inflation using monetary policy in a globalised economy. I think they will, eventually, have to look at fiscal policy. A theme on MSE at the moment is that this targets mortgage holders only and that they are bearing the cross for the rest of us etc. etc. but it also targets house buyers who have to bid less, bringing down prices, anyone with debt other than for property, that is a lot of people now, employers wishing to borrow to expand etc. and means people will lose jobs in sectors where debt holders can cut back to pay their higher debt cost, not pleasant but pretty effective I would say. IMO it is not under control because they started too late and are not cranking the lever hard enough, they need to do 0.5% rises every month until the brakes go on hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 7 hours ago, Huggy said: The BBC are on message too House prices fall at fastest rate in 12 years, says Halifax https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66130798 SKY financial guy nearly gagged while saying the words, too too funny really, LOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unmoderated Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 3 hours ago, dances with sheeple said: A theme on MSE at the moment is that this targets mortgage holders only and that they are bearing the cross for the rest of us etc. etc. but it also targets house buyers who have to bid less, bringing down prices, anyone with debt other than for property, that is a lot of people now, employers wishing to borrow to expand etc. and means people will lose jobs in sectors where debt holders can cut back to pay their higher debt cost, not pleasant but pretty effective I would say. IMO it is not under control because they started too late and are not cranking the lever hard enough, they need to do 0.5% rises every month until the brakes go on hard. I hear you on the prospective house buyers.... all that does though is make them bid less on houses which don't feature in CPI. Or they could just smack 2% in income tax, make everyone pay something towards the problem, reassure the world that UK is able to pay down its national debt. That would involve common sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 14 hours ago, henry the king said: You are the guy saying that inflation will collapse and the BoE will cut rates in a few months. How exactly are we the ones on hopium? We are stating facts that have already happened: 1, IRs up to 5% ALREADY 2, Mortgage rates well over 6% ALREADY 3, House prices falling in nominal terms YoY ALREADY 4, House prices falling in real terms 10% YoY ALREADY That is apparently hopium. Whereas you: 1, Inflation MIGHT come down 2, The BoE MIGHT cut rates soon 3, House prices MIGHT go up soon 4, The government MIGHT bailout me out soon. Stop the difference? You are factually the one making things up which might happen in the future. We are just observing what has already happened. When inflation crashes below zero I suspect "real terms" will be quickly forgotten. No need to get angry btw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 52 minutes ago, Stewy said: When inflation crashes below zero I suspect "real terms" will be quickly forgotten. No need to get angry btw. @henry the king he’s just a troll as I pointed out weeks ago. Every post is just a single, low effort, inflammatory sentence. Ignore him and he will go away because it’s only fun for these people watching the reactions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 12 minutes ago, scottbeard said: @henry the king he’s just a troll as I pointed out weeks ago. Every post is just a single, low effort, inflammatory sentence. Ignore him and he will go away because it’s only fun for these people watching the reactions. Deeming everyone you disagree with as a troll gets pretty boring, fast. Like I've said, energy prices cratering means inflation will follow. USA didn't have the energy price spike we did therefore inflation is more subdued. Their deflation will also be more subdued but ours will be evident soon now the nights are lengthening. We had a whole day of near-negative electricity prices recently. That will soon feed through to bills and the wider economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry the king Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 47 minutes ago, scottbeard said: @henry the king he’s just a troll as I pointed out weeks ago. Every post is just a single, low effort, inflammatory sentence. Ignore him and he will go away because it’s only fun for these people watching the reactions. You are right. I put him on ignore now. Every post is low effort and inflammatory I agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 2 hours ago, Stewy said: When inflation crashes below zero I suspect "real terms" will be quickly forgotten. No need to get angry btw. Core inflation just increased (unexpectedly) 2 months in a row so is showing no signs of crashing to zero yet. I agree it will do at some point but will coincide with a severe recession which will crash house prices even if rates do get slashed. A hard landing is baked in now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 48 minutes ago, henry the king said: You are right. I put him on ignore now. Every post is low effort and inflammatory I agree. This is just ridiculous. Mods? I've just set out a lengthy explanation of how cratering energy prices will lead to deflation via cost push. All production inputs are reliant on energy which is in rapid deflation. I think this accusation of trolling is projection. They just want a response. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Up the spout Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 54 minutes ago, henry the king said: You are right. I put him on ignore now. Every post is low effort and inflammatory I agree. Seems pretty troll-like to me, plus not adding anything to the discussion so ignoring is the better play Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 Just now, Up the spout said: Seems pretty troll-like to me, plus not adding anything to the discussion so ignoring is the better play Also known as "I only want to listen to those I agree with". Ridiculous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 It’s not an airport. no need to announce quite so loudly and repetitively who you are ignoring. it pushes close bullying if you keep repeating how you are ignoring someone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 17 minutes ago, Stewy said: This is just ridiculous. Mods? I've just set out a lengthy explanation of how cratering energy prices will lead to deflation via cost push. All production inputs are reliant on energy which is in rapid deflation. I think this accusation of trolling is projection. They just want a response. Energy prices aren't cratering. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/oil-prices-up-three-per-cent-to-nine-week-high-on-supply-concerns/ar-AA1dAwf0 Oil prices climbed about three per cent to a nine-week high on Friday as supply concerns and technical buying outweighed fears that further interest rate hikes could slow economic growth and reduce demand for oil. Brent futures rose $1.95, or 2.6 per cent, to settle at $78.47 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) rose $2.06, or 2.9 per cent, to settle at $73.86. That was the highest close for Brent since May 1 and WTI since May 24. Both benchmarks ended up about five per cent for the week. After two months of price consolidation between roughly $73-77, Brent moved into technically overbought territory for the first time since mid April. “The rally over the last week or so … has been quite strong and backed by momentum – as well as fresh cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia,” said Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst at OANDA. Top oil exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia announced fresh output cuts this week bringing total reductions by OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, to around 5m barrels per day (bpd), or about five per cent of global oil demand. “OPEC+ production cuts are expected to tighten the market, driving supply deficits in the second half of 2023, supporting higher oil prices,” analysts at U.S. financial services company Morningstar said in a note. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, zugzwang said: Energy prices aren't cratering. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/oil-prices-up-three-per-cent-to-nine-week-high-on-supply-concerns/ar-AA1dAwf0 Oil prices climbed about three per cent to a nine-week high on Friday as supply concerns and technical buying outweighed fears that further interest rate hikes could slow economic growth and reduce demand for oil. Brent futures rose $1.95, or 2.6 per cent, to settle at $78.47 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) rose $2.06, or 2.9 per cent, to settle at $73.86. That was the highest close for Brent since May 1 and WTI since May 24. Both benchmarks ended up about five per cent for the week. After two months of price consolidation between roughly $73-77, Brent moved into technically overbought territory for the first time since mid April. “The rally over the last week or so … has been quite strong and backed by momentum – as well as fresh cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia,” said Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst at OANDA. Top oil exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia announced fresh output cuts this week bringing total reductions by OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, to around 5m barrels per day (bpd), or about five per cent of global oil demand. “OPEC+ production cuts are expected to tighten the market, driving supply deficits in the second half of 2023, supporting higher oil prices,” analysts at U.S. financial services company Morningstar said in a note. Gas for August: Why are you lying? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 Just now, Stewy said: Gas for August: Why are you lying? Crude is up 5% bbl on the week. The highest close for Brent since May 1st. Your claim that energy prices are cratering is false. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Up the spout Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 2 hours ago, scottbeard said: @henry the king he’s just a troll as I pointed out weeks ago. Every post is just a single, low effort, inflammatory sentence. Ignore him and he will go away because it’s only fun for these people watching the reactions. 1 hour ago, henry the king said: You are right. I put him on ignore now. Every post is low effort and inflammatory I agree. 36 minutes ago, Up the spout said: Seems pretty troll-like to me, plus not adding anything to the discussion so ignoring is the better play 28 minutes ago, mynamehere said: It’s not an airport. no need to announce quite so loudly and repetitively who you are ignoring. it pushes close bullying if you keep repeating how you are ignoring someone That is once each, which doesn't seem so loud or repetitive to me (and is nowhere near 'bullying', which is just a dramatic and unsubstantiated accusation). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, zugzwang said: Crude is up 5% bbl on the week. The highest close for Brent since May 1st. Your claim that energy prices are cratering is false. Pick and choose your favoured fuel . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, Stewy said: Pick and choose your favoured fuel . You made a sweeping generalisation. I corrected it. Energy prices are not cratering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Up the spout said: That is once each, which doesn't seem so loud or repetitive to me (and is nowhere near 'bullying', which is just a dramatic and unsubstantiated accusation). I could substantiate if you really want. But I guess everyone would rather just talk about house prices, rather than listen to the same pile on by the same handful of posters every single index thread. Which ends in the same way, every single time. Edited July 8, 2023 by mynamehere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 Anyway, HPC is still on the Q train, i do agree it's the best metric. YoY is pointless after such covid volatility No denying there was significant bounce back which lasted half a year, when rates stabilised around 4% the real action starts now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BorrowToLeech Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 12 minutes ago, mynamehere said: Anyway, HPC is still on the Q train, i do agree it's the best metric. YoY is pointless after such covid volatility No denying there was significant bounce back which lasted half a year, when rates stabilised around 4% the real action starts now Is Q on Q seasonally adjusted or not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, BorrowToLeech said: Is Q on Q seasonally adjusted or not? The monthly data is seasonally adjusted. The quarterly data is a simple average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BorrowToLeech Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 16 hours ago, dances with sheeple said: A theme on MSE at the moment is that this targets mortgage holders only Existing mortgage holders aren’t the target, you can see this from the US which has the same basic inflation fighting policy but also has fixed rate mortgages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BorrowToLeech Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, mynamehere said: The monthly data is seasonally adjusted. The quarterly data is a simple average. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dopamine Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 I thought that by June of this year the trajectory of a correction would be clear. I thought we'd be down by between 5-7.5% YOY by now, heading to nominal 15-20% falls or even more, so I was wrong. Revising my view, now, I'm unsure if there's just been a delay in the correction or whether a combination of low volume, high inflation and greater inequality than the last crash (ie more people completely priced out of mortgage finance even in the face of big falls) will limit the downside. I'm swaying towards thinking that the downside will now be a max of 10% nominal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.