Anyone else actually trying to sell at the moment?

[gerkin]

I think right now it's like catching a falling knife. It's a race to the bottom and the most desperate and motivated sellers will cut drastically just to get the nightmare off their hands and when prices are going down who wants to buy ? Buyers would rather wait and see if prices stabilise. 

Imagine a buyers situation. They are commiting to a very high interest mortgage and an asset whose price is tanking. 

[Beef Shandy]

It's probable that a recession - possibly a significant one - will be required to return inflation to target.

The being the case, once the BoE begins a cutting cycle, it won't a sign of "all clear, return to normal" but that demand in the economy has contracted, business profits have tanked and employers are looking to make every possible cost saving in order to survive / return to profitability, such as laying people off.

That environment is one in which house prices continue to fall, not rise.

Rises will begin perhaps 18-24 months after that, and that's the window in which bargains will be had as the highly motivated sellers take what's on offer from the few buyers with both the means and the confidence to step in.

 

[Pmax2020]

Duplicate 

Edited June 25, 2023 by Pmax2020

[Pmax2020]

3 hours ago, mynamehere said:

The market for desirable properties is still hot IMO. 

 

I’d second that. A nicely sized Victorian semi came up in Perth for 465k recently, which is close to max 2021/2022 prices. I knew it would sell instantly and the following day it was under offer.

You’ll always have some buyers in really good positions that will accept any falls observed over the next 5 years, will be easily recoverable in 10-15 years time.

I’m keeping an eye on prices of the detached 1930s style bungalows in Edinburgh. I saw some sell for 800k during the pandemic. I have a feeling some like for like ones will sell for 100-200k less in months to come, just because there are a lot of them and the value you can add to them isn’t so certain right now. 

[Johnno1167]

2 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

I’d second that. A nicely sized Victorian semi came up in Perth for 465k recently, which is close to max 2021/2022 prices. I knew it would sell instantly and the following day it was under offer.

You’ll always have some buyers in really good positions that will accept any falls observed over the next 5 years, will be easily recoverable in 10-15 years time.

I’m keeping an eye on prices of the detached 1930s style bungalows in Edinburgh. I saw some sell for 800k during the pandemic. I have a feeling some like for like ones will sell for 100-200k less in months to come, just because there are a lot of them and the value you can add to them isn’t so certain right now. 

I would have agreed with this sentiment a month ago. A lot of those nice desirables in the 700-900K are coming back onto the market where I’m located. All tied to school catchments of course. Some really nice houses that aren’t in catchment for the good schools round here, all have a few price reductions … not moving at all . Bit of a Mexican stand off evolving… 

[GeneCernan]

We've sold. Money in the bank, no mortgage on the old place.

Our purchase has been dragging on and on due to being a probate sale, Land Registry involved, and solicitors/estate agents seeming to care not one jot.

We're giving two more days for positive news and contracts ready to sign.

If that doesn't happen our offer drops significantly on Wednesday and we are prepared to walk away.

[mynamehere]

It's a bit easier to take the temperature of the desirable market in scotland, as when you put bids as everyone has to submit their offers, and afterwards you are generally told what rank your bid was. Anything popular will have a couple of cheeky bids, a cluster around perceived value, then one or two mental bids from those who really want it. Something like 92% of properties that receive offers sell cleanly with no haggling etc. So there really is no ambiguity at all whether there is a stand off or not. There most definitely isn't a stand off for anything slightly desirable.

On the other hand, it's becoming more common for flats to go to fixed price. As mentioned above, flats are going to struggle much more. 

Which is why I don't think OP should dick around trying to second guess, just drop the price to something silly low and gauge the interest level. 

[Pmax2020]

@mynamehere is interested in Edinburgh if I recall correctly. Here’s a house on at 535k, where last August one sold for 610k. Same street, near identical layout. Crashy crashy!!!

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136204931#/?channel=RES_BUY

This could potentially represent a real terms fall of 20% in one year…

[mynamehere]

10 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

@mynamehere is interested in Edinburgh if I recall correctly. Here’s a house on at 535k, where last August one sold for 610k. Same street, near identical layout. Crashy crashy!!!

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136204931#/?channel=RES_BUY

This could potentially represent a real terms fall of 20% in one year…

HR is 550, this kind of house is still averaging 10% over HR so that all adds up I'm afraid

Real terms means nothing to me sadly as I'm on a fixed income now till i sail off

If i remember your wage growth situation correctly, you should be a beneficiary though

Edited June 25, 2023 by mynamehere

[Pmax2020]

3 minutes ago, mynamehere said:

HR is 550, this kind of house is still averaging 10% over HR so that all adds up I'm afraid

We’ll see. I’m not sure the ‘10% over rule’ really exists. I’ve bought 3 houses and in each case I got them all within 1 or 2 percent of the home report. 

Are you an agent or do you have BTLs? You just give that slight vibe that you don’t want to see, or don’t believe prices will fall up here. 
 

Edited June 25, 2023 by Pmax2020

[mynamehere]

27 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

We’ll see. I’m not sure the ‘10% over rule’ really exists. I’ve bought 3 houses and in each case I got them all within 1 or 2 percent of the home report. 

Are you an agent or do you have BTLs. You just give that slight vibe that you don’t want to see, or don’t believe prices will fall up here. 
 

Did the houses you bought have competitive closing dates? There are exceptions of course, but houses that sell close to HR tend to hang around for a while. Anything that goes to closing within a week or two, will likely achieve the average HR premium for that area, which is hyper local.

If this house hangs around for a bit it will likely be relisted at +5%, about 575 fixed price or some signal that OIRO will be sufficient.

Yes I'm an estate agent with tons of BTLs. 

Edit, it's been on for 10 days now so def worth a watch.

 

 

 

Edited June 25, 2023 by mynamehere

[mynamehere]

32 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

@mynamehere is interested in Edinburgh if I recall correctly. Here’s a house on at 535k, where last August one sold for 610k. Same street, near identical layout. Crashy crashy!!!

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136204931#/?channel=RES_BUY

This could potentially represent a real terms fall of 20% in one year…

 

Found the zoopla listing, originally listed for 490 in 2022, sold for 610.

HR was likely something like 525. So it probably went for about 15% over HR. 

Market is a bit softer now, but I think they should easily clear 600. One to watch!

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/property-history/86-woodfield-park/colinton/edinburgh/eh13-0rb/61314050/

[LivingWithTheInlaws]

I've been trying to sell my dad's retirement flat since January. 3 viewings initially, then nothing for 12 weeks. Changed agents, nothing. Price went down 250, 225, 200, then 185. Still no enquiries. Reluctantly, I've now got a tenant but at least they are covering the service charge.

[henry the king]

19 hours ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

Another concern in a rapidly falling market, could be accepting a good price, to later find out that the valuation fell short and the buyers mortgage didn't fly. Could waste a couple of months and require a restart. Traditionally in England, 1 in 3 chains fall through, in this market that is closer to 1 in 2 (according to 'Moving Home with Charlie' sources).

 

Might be worth catching this live stream in a few hours: DOOM I tells ya!
I likes Bear food

 

Good video tbh.

Even on here could don't really understand just how massive the switch from QE to QT was for asset prices (mainly house prices).

QE allowed governments to just rack up debt with no downside as gilt yields were artificially suppressed. Now, with QT, governments AND the central banks are selling debt onto the markets, so yields will be much much higher for the long term. This means mortgage rates stay higher and house prices go down.

We have only seen the very beginnings of the impact of the QT programme. 

[henry the king]

17 hours ago, Johnno1167 said:

You might be waiting a long time . I’m in the market to buy , ready to pull trigger . I’m now assuming I will plan now on waiting 18-24 months min as prices slowly decline (not just flatline ) &   save a couple of hundred K (price already dropped 75K  on two houses I’ve viewed ). Logic tells me it’s crazy to buy a fixed asset in a market with declining asset prices unless you have to.  I know a few other people in the same situation..  not even bothering to go see stuff .

It is hard to time the market but it isn't hard to not buy into a bubble.

It makes sense to wait for the bubble to deflate imo. 

[henry the king]

16 hours ago, Beef Shandy said:

It's probable that a recession - possibly a significant one - will be required to return inflation to target.

The being the case, once the BoE begins a cutting cycle, it won't a sign of "all clear, return to normal" but that demand in the economy has contracted, business profits have tanked and employers are looking to make every possible cost saving in order to survive / return to profitability, such as laying people off.

That environment is one in which house prices continue to fall, not rise.

Rises will begin perhaps 18-24 months after that, and that's the window in which bargains will be had as the highly motivated sellers take what's on offer from the few buyers with both the means and the confidence to step in.

 

Exactly true. 

[the stig]

We sold at the end of last year.

Listed at £600k for a month - nothing. We thought that was optimistic anyway.

Dropped to £580k. 2x viewings that were obviously the wrong kind of buyer. Agent said "it's the market. it's dead". My response was that if it was £1 it'd sell tomorrow, and if it was £1M it'd sell in 30 years time. There has to be a price that's right for the market. Telling me that it's "the market's fault" is just useless information.

Changed agent to someone with a completely different approach. Dropped to £500k offers over.

2 weeks later it sold for over asking.

Our view was that it was better to get out and take our 70% equity with us, rather than miss the opportunity, watch the value drop and our equity reduce.

It seems to have worked out well so far.

[nero120]

1 hour ago, the stig said:

We sold at the end of last year.

Listed at £600k for a month - nothing. We thought that was optimistic anyway.

Dropped to £580k. 2x viewings that were obviously the wrong kind of buyer. Agent said "it's the market. it's dead". My response was that if it was £1 it'd sell tomorrow, and if it was £1M it'd sell in 30 years time. There has to be a price that's right for the market. Telling me that it's "the market's fault" is just useless information.

Changed agent to someone with a completely different approach. Dropped to £500k offers over.

2 weeks later it sold for over asking.

Our view was that it was better to get out and take our 70% equity with us, rather than miss the opportunity, watch the value drop and our equity reduce.

It seems to have worked out well so far.

Congrats, out of interest how long did it take you to complete?

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

2 hours ago, the stig said:

We sold at the end of last year.

Listed at £600k for a month - nothing. We thought that was optimistic anyway.

Dropped to £580k. 2x viewings that were obviously the wrong kind of buyer. Agent said "it's the market. it's dead". My response was that if it was £1 it'd sell tomorrow, and if it was £1M it'd sell in 30 years time. There has to be a price that's right for the market. Telling me that it's "the market's fault" is just useless information.

Changed agent to someone with a completely different approach. Dropped to £500k offers over.

2 weeks later it sold for over asking.

Our view was that it was better to get out and take our 70% equity with us, rather than miss the opportunity, watch the value drop and our equity reduce.

It seems to have worked out well so far.

How do you persuade the other part(s) of 'we' to go along with this?

[the stig]

39 minutes ago, nero120 said:

Congrats, out of interest how long did it take you to complete?

6 months. It was a rollercoaster.

Selling a house is stressful anyway, but it's much more stressful when you've convinced yourself that every week that passes is another £1,000 off the value if it falls through!

[the stig]

7 minutes ago, the_duke_of_hazzard said:

How do you persuade the other part(s) of 'we' to go along with this?

She wanted to move anyway for other reasons that had been building for years.

Once rates started ramping up and i explained how selling and renting might play out to our favour, she became another HPC devotee.

our situation was that we wanted to move anyway. It's pretty much just luck that that decision coincided with the market shifting. But once it started shifting we had fingers crossed that it would go through, and it cemented the decision to rent rather than add another purchase onto the chain.

[winkie]

On 25/06/2023 at 12:32, downwiththissortofthing said:

Two weeks since I posted this and still not a single enquiry (I'm going to drop the price this week and see what happens).

A real life example of a falling market.

Are you buying anything else?......why should you not buy something that has also dropped in price.....no loss, only gain, less debt to borrow.

[PeanutButter]

Just checked rm my area and last 14 days vs last 14 days + sold is…

 

1 flat.

Edited June 26, 2023 by PeanutButter

[nero120]

49 minutes ago, the stig said:

6 months. It was a rollercoaster.

Selling a house is stressful anyway, but it's much more stressful when you've convinced yourself that every week that passes is another £1,000 off the value if it falls through!

Indeed! Thanks for the response.

[Unmoderated]

On 25/06/2023 at 13:11, FivePoundLatte said:

We've been on the market for 1.5 months. We're the cheapest size/type house in our postcode area (i.e. cheapest 1 bed flat, or cheapest 3 bed house). 

We've had 1 non serious viewing in total.

Our next door neighbours have been on the market for a month with 0 viewings.

I'm actually glad because it's a barometer of the market, and it's clearly a dead and falling market. We're happy to stay here until there's a corrections then look to sell at a reasonable price in a few years.

Are you wanting to trade up or down?