Commercial RE is dead

[NoHPCinTheUK]

I had a couple of pints with a friend who is a PM for a software firm in London. They tried to bring people back 2/3 days in presence. No luck. He told me they will not renew the lease this September and they’re actively looking for a smaller space for the occasional client meeting for their British book. They work with banks and all these new banks (Revolut, Monzo etc) don’t have an office and they hire remotely plus every role is open in several different cities. He said this is a different way of doing business and hiring people. My impression is that he was quite exited about it, when I asked why not outsourcing to India at this point he said governments will step in to protect jobs. 
I also know from a very reliable source that half of the towers in the City are empty and the other half is full only three days. Mondays and Fridays are dead and business are struggling. I also had a chat with a senior at my firm (fin services)…she said they won’t put any effort in trying to bring seniors back in, they don’t care, those sitting on international desks do not bother at all coming back to the office. 

It seems JPM want everyone at their desks 5 days now. 

[winkie]

Save emissions, dirty and timely journeys, work locally, invest in local, spend locally.......save money and time, buy a better home further away from work.....speak to the boss from home, speak to the world from home, touch new people......spend more time with your children, save on child care, time to make the dinner......work life balance.......happy employees happy companies....what are the consequences of not keeping your good productive people happy?

[NoHPCinTheUK]

3 minutes ago, winkie said:

Save emissions, dirty and timely journeys, work locally, invest in local, spend locally.......save money and time, buy a better home further away from work.....speak to the boss from home, speak to the world from home, touch new people......spend more time with your children, save on child care, time to make the dinner......work life balance.......happy employees happy companies....what are the consequences of not keeping your good productive people happy?

Some firms struggle to adapt and they want people back. I’m not sure remore working is ideal for every org tbh. I think they have a point when they say we want our employees back at their desks. 

[winkie]

1 minute ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

Some firms struggle to adapt and they want people back. I’m not sure remore working is ideal for every org tbh. I think they have a point when they say we want our employees back at their desks. 

I don't.......let them employ more local people and pay them more.....five days a week to sit in an office behind a screen is wasteful and backward thinking, perhaps they are more nervous about their own jobs and the value of them?

[A.steve]

58 minutes ago, winkie said:

... to sit in an office behind a screen is wasteful and backward thinking ...

Yes, it's a non-job that can be automated away.

[winkie]

30 minutes ago, A.steve said:

Yes, it's a non-job that can be automated away.

Some perhaps......so many teaching courses online......like open university, can meet up for summer school, no need to go onto classroom.....

[Maghull Mike]

WFH IS here to stay.................Firms will love it as its be far cheaper for hem & they can look for staff ANYWHERE on the Planet!

[A.steve]

1 hour ago, winkie said:

Some perhaps......so many teaching courses online......like open university, can meet up for summer school, no need to go onto classroom.....

Would online courses be as efficient to indoctrinate the under classes into learned helplessness?

Would students learn to bend and break the same rules without classrooms?

[MARTINX9]

Working from home was great for the bosses in their nice big leafy houses - it was never as nice for the younger staff living in rented shared flats/small flats as a couple (often with kids) sharing one kitchen table or working on their beds.

Part of the problem is you no longer have any idea who is doing what in an organisation - even who half the people are - as you don't see them.

[winkie]

Just now, A.steve said:

Would online courses be as efficient to indoctrinate the under classes into learned helplessness?

Would students learn to bend and break the same rules without classrooms?

Are you saying only what you call the 'underclass' are indoctrinated, anyone can be..... students can learn anything they want to learn.....some things that might do good, other things not so good......like teachers are good and not so good......find a good teacher, easier to find in the world wide net than at any local school or private school, perhaps it is the teachers themselves that are indoctrinated?

[A.steve]

Just now, winkie said:

Are you saying only what you call the 'underclass' are indoctrinated, anyone can be..... students can learn anything they want to learn.....some things that might do good, other things not so good......like teachers are good and not so good......find a good teacher, easier to find in the world wide net than at any local school or private school, perhaps it is the teachers themselves that are indoctrinated?

I didn't find that very clear.

Indoctrination is not universal - but it is widespread.  It is not always detrimental - but it can be.

I disagree that students can learn anything they want to learn.  Most students are not 'free' in that sense... they are unlikely to have financial independence - for example; they're also constrained practically by legislation... and by the prevailing beliefs in society that constrain the opportunities available to them.  Students rarely direct their own study.

I see no reason to assume that online educational resources available to students are more likely to be constructed in the interests of the student than what a conventional teacher may present in a conventional classroom - or what might be read in conventional books.

I think I've lived through an extraordinary digital period - during which access to data has become extremely cheap.  This, however, is a double-edged sword... More data does not imply better quality information - but it does imply increased time-consuming complexity for any research.  It is entirely possible, in my opinion, that abundant online courses could very easily fail to provide the student with any advantage.

[winkie]

10 minutes ago, A.steve said:

I didn't find that very clear.

Indoctrination is not universal - but it is widespread.  It is not always detrimental - but it can be.

I disagree that students can learn anything they want to learn.  Most students are not 'free' in that sense... they are unlikely to have financial independence - for example; they're also constrained practically by legislation... and by the prevailing beliefs in society that constrain the opportunities available to them.  Students rarely direct their own study.

I see no reason to assume that online educational resources available to students are more likely to be constructed in the interests of the student than what a conventional teacher may present in a conventional classroom - or what might be read in conventional books.

I think I've lived through an extraordinary digital period - during which access to data has become extremely cheap.  This, however, is a double-edged sword... More data does not imply better quality information - but it does imply increased time-consuming complexity for any research.  It is entirely possible, in my opinion, that abundant online courses could very easily fail to provide the student with any advantage.

Not saying conventional teachers are all bad when clearly they are not....they are tied to narrow restrictions on how and what they can teach.....more importantly how they can teach....all kids learn differently, some kids learn later.....teachers in schools have little room to move outside what are forced to do with the tools and orders given to them.....many kids are let down......big time.

[A.steve]

2 hours ago, winkie said:

Not saying conventional teachers are all bad when clearly they are not....they are tied to narrow restrictions on how and what they can teach.....more importantly how they can teach....all kids learn differently, some kids learn later.....teachers in schools have little room to move outside what are forced to do with the tools and orders given to them.....many kids are let down......big time.

I don't think any of this arises as an accident.  The top-down influences on society are probably carefully considered.  I don't believe such influence dictates outcomes - but there are substantial systemic effects.  If one can engrain a sense of utter futility among the majority of the young, they are less likely to act in their own interests now - or later in life.  There are many approaches that lead down this path... the young can be forced to compete rather than cooperate; rewards can be engineered to be arbitrary rather than a consequence of success; a regime of arbitrary 'testing' can be used to create the illusion that education and understanding are without value... while entrenching beliefs that training (to be satisfactorily subordinate) is necessary for survival.

Given observations about adults (including teachers) - it's not obvious that all kids learn - differently, or otherwise.  Some seem to have developed an immunity to understanding - perhaps this is a consequence of the motivations their environment produced?

[fellow]

Step 1. Remove workers from the office.

Step 2. Replace most workers with AI.

Step 3. Replace the remaining workers with cheaper and better foreign labour.

Step 4. Profit.

Edited April 15, 2023 by fellow

[shlomo]

4 hours ago, Maghull Mike said:

WFH IS here to stay.................Firms will love it as its be far cheaper for hem & they can look for staff ANYWHERE on the Planet!

That is something that people do not consider they can be replaced by an Indian on a much lower salary 

[winkie]

1 hour ago, shlomo said:

That is something that people do not consider they can be replaced by an Indian on a much lower salary 

Isn't that the society we live under, a free market, global capitalist society....

Can't therefore pick and choose the bits we like or dislike.... allow some to fail and bailout others...that is not fair.

Edited April 15, 2023 by winkie
Correction...

[winkie]

2 hours ago, A.steve said:

I don't think any of this arises as an accident.  The top-down influences on society are probably carefully considered.  I don't believe such influence dictates outcomes - but there are substantial systemic effects.  If one can engrain a sense of utter futility among the majority of the young, they are less likely to act in their own interests now - or later in life.  There are many approaches that lead down this path... the young can be forced to compete rather than cooperate; rewards can be engineered to be arbitrary rather than a consequence of success; a regime of arbitrary 'testing' can be used to create the illusion that education and understanding are without value... while entrenching beliefs that training (to be satisfactorily subordinate) is necessary for survival.

Given observations about adults (including teachers) - it's not obvious that all kids learn - differently, or otherwise.  Some seem to have developed an immunity to understanding - perhaps this is a consequence of the motivations their environment produced?

If it is possible to do things differently, learn differently, work differently......why not take advantage of it, else people might suspect those that fear change, fear the change or loss of their own jobs....or loss of investments in commercial property worldwide..

 

 

 

 

[TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack]

5 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

Part of the problem is you no longer have any idea who is doing what in an organisation - even who half the people are - as you don't see them.

Lots of people in the engineering company I work for work from home 4 days a week. Personally I think it has been terrible for teamwork and productivity. The biggest problem I see is people thinking "I know what needs doing" then going off and doing things without checking with anyone else. Half the time they will go off and design things incorrectly and it only becomes apparent after a week or two. In the past a two minute, back of an envelope sketch would get someone on the same wavelength.

As for AI taking engineering jobs, it might be able to copy and merge existing designs, but would it have ever come up with the idea for a Nissan Leaf, the Chevy Volt, or the General Motors EV1 which preceded the Leaf?

[A.steve]

50 minutes ago, winkie said:

If it is possible to do things differently, learn differently, work differently......why not take advantage of it, else people might suspect those that fear change, fear the change or loss of their own jobs....or loss of investments in commercial property worldwide..

It seems you're promoting change for the sake of change.  People should fear investment loss - it is only by the existence of risk of loss that investment promotes appropriate allocation of resources.  Changes, when they advantage you, should be embraced... but it is a mistake to assume that all changes are desirable just because they involve something different (and less familiar, so less well understood.)

[A.steve]

4 minutes ago, TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack said:

As for AI taking engineering jobs, it might be able to copy and merge existing designs, but would it have ever come up with the idea for a Nissan Leaf, the Chevy Volt, or the General Motors EV1 which preceded the Leaf?

Are you you saying that an AI would be hard pushed to do a worse job than the inventors of these fetishised EVs?  Frankly, I think 'AI' mathematics is at the cutting edge of creative engineering...  it's the tool that can be exploited by the most able engineers... and, simultaneously, a buzz-word spouted by the most inept.

[Timm]

9 hours ago, winkie said:

Some perhaps......so many teaching courses online......like open university, can meet up for summer school, no need to go onto classroom.....

I don’ want to get too deep into the conversation that followed this comment, but I would like to point out the difference between the OU who in my experience offer a superb learning experience, and a lot of other distance learning which can often be just a bag of shite.

[SickOfWaiting]

11 hours ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

 I asked why not outsourcing to India at this point he said government will step in to protect jobs bring millions of Indians to the UK

 

[SickOfWaiting]

9 hours ago, Maghull Mike said:

WFH IS here to stay.................Firms will love it as its be far cheaper for hem & they can look for staff ANYWHERE on the Planet!

This is how it will end, great for the 1st batch of WFHers, then as time goes by the jobs will go to where its cheapest.

Just another way to hollow out the country!

The opposite of Hendy Ford model of paying people decent wages to they could buy his product.

[nero120]

They already tried outsourcing IT jobs to india in the early 2000s (I was made redundant from my first developer job as a result), sufficive to say it was a disaster and soon most of those companies were re-hiring local workers.

[TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack]

8 hours ago, A.steve said:

Are you you saying that an AI would be hard pushed to do a worse job than the inventors of these fetishised EVs?  Frankly, I think 'AI' mathematics is at the cutting edge of creative engineering...  it's the tool that can be exploited by the most able engineers... and, simultaneously, a buzz-word spouted by the most inept.

My point is that I don't think AI would ever come up with the idea of something new. 
Could AI have come up with the idea for the Ford Mustang, which on paper makes no sense ? I doubt it. It would have just come up with a new variation of the Ford Falcon looking a bit closer to Ford's competitors. 

I'm not saying AI is useless, just that it is simply a tool like a Word Processor. In the late 1970s a TV programme "Now the Chips are Down" predicted that Microprocessors would take most people's jobs and they would need training in how to use all their leisure time. While a few areas such as Print-Setting were badly affected, 45 years later we seem to have more unfilled vacancies than ever.