Evergrande (Merged threads)

[scottbeard]

20 minutes ago, Timm said:

It's this sort of thing that reminds me that I just don't understand.

If the company staggers on till its next dividend, you'd be quids in.

The current (notional) yield implies that nobody thinks it will survive that long. I suppose it's a long shot punt and if you make enough, you might hit a winner? Like Greek bonds a decade ago.

 

No - that's calculated as last year's dividend divided by today's share price.

Next year's dividend will be Nil presumably if they made an $8bn loss.

[Timm]

5 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

No - that's calculated as last year's dividend divided by today's share price.

Next year's dividend will be Nil presumably if they made an $8bn loss.

See - I told you I didn’t understand!

So is the yield an actual yield based on the current price, or is it some sort of fantasy figure?

 

[scottbeard]

1 minute ago, Timm said:

See - I told you I didn’t understand!

So is the yield an actual yield based on the current price, or is it some sort of fantasy figure?

 

That is the return you'd get if:

- you bought at today's price, and

- the next year's dividend is the same as the last one

That's how a dividend yield is calculated.  I guess you could call it a fantasy figure, but it's just a mathematical ratio and not a promise!

[Timm]

3 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

That is the return you'd get if:

- you bought at today's price, and

- the next year's dividend is the same as the last one

That's how a dividend yield is calculated.  I guess you could call it a fantasy figure, but it's just a mathematical ratio and not a promise!

Thanks - good job I’m not a trader! 

But every day is a learning day!

[scottbeard]

18 minutes ago, Timm said:

Thanks - good job I’m not a trader! 

But every day is a learning day!

Incidentally, bond yields are less of a fantasy figure because bond coupons - unlike dividends - are fixed.  So if you buy a bond yielding 5% then 5% is indeed the return you'd get holding it to maturity.

UNLESS the bond payer defaults, of course, when you might get only Xp in the £.

[Timm]

1 minute ago, scottbeard said:

Incidentally, bond yields are less of a fantasy figure because bond coupons - unlike dividends - are fixed.  So if you buy a bond yielding 5% then 5% is indeed the return you'd get holding it to maturity.

UNLESS the bond payer defaults, of course, when you might get only Xp in the £.

Thanks - that is the bit I do understand (and which may have caused my confusion) 

one final question - presumably there is also the potential for “windfall dividends” when for example a business involved in the growing of arable crops sells a chinch of land to Barrett for housing? ( asking for a friend)

[scottbeard]

Just now, Timm said:

one final question - presumably there is also the potential for “windfall dividends” when for example a business involved in the growing of arable crops sells a chinch of land to Barrett for housing? ( asking for a friend)

Only if all the proceeds are paid out as a dividend - typically most listed companies wouldn't do that I think, and even if they did the total amount wouldn't be large compared to the overall dividend?

But dividend yields are just a mechanistic calculation so I'm not sure but i think they are simply total dividends last year / current price, so would be distorted by it?

[Timm]

1 minute ago, scottbeard said:

Only if all the proceeds are paid out as a dividend - typically most listed companies wouldn't do that I think, and even if they did the total amount wouldn't be large compared to the overall dividend?

But dividend yields are just a mechanistic calculation so I'm not sure but i think they are simply total dividends last year / current price, so would be distorted by it?

Many thanks - much appreciated

[Freki]

1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

A $7.6bn loss in China is nothing.  The Chinese economy is $19 trillion in size.  That's a loss equivalent to 0.04% of the economic output of the country.  Not great for the company concerned, but on its own would be a speed bump at best.  However, it is not alone of course.

The construction sector was about 7% last year, and it is not only Country's Garden (CG) or Evergrande, pretty much all of them are troubled. Remember that when Evergrande was making the news, CG was actually hailed as being robust. Now comes also the contagion. CG owes flats as well as their financial debtors. So the troubles won't be only for the banks and bond holders, but your average Joe who only knew ever raising house prices. 

[Saving For a Space Ship]

China’s economic model is faltering – does it have the political will to fix it?

The country’s property crisis is causing damage that requires Xi to make liberal or market reforms

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/23/china-economic-model-property-crisis

[Tony_Teacake]

I read this as China has the ability to affect global inflation and is now doing so to an extent but for a long time contributed to global price stability and availability of cheap but durable items people like to buy for everyday use, this combined with cheap and plentiful debt kept wage demands low or off the table (wage demands are one reason the BOE will still be raising rates at the next meeting)

The main thing China is exporting now is volatility, defaults in China have knock on effects in global credit markets and as we know this can cause spikes to borrowing rates due to perceived risk and not just inflationary pressures.

[zugzwang]

1 hour ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

China’s economic model is faltering – does it have the political will to fix it?

The country’s property crisis is causing damage that requires Xi to make liberal or market reforms

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/23/china-economic-model-property-crisis

Doomsday propaganda from the Graun. What else were you expecting from the Extreme Centre?

In reality, the Chinese economy is enjoying a Goldilocks moment. Not only displacing Japan to become the world's leading auto manufacturer/exporter in Q1 but also likely to emerge as the No. 1 manufacturer of legacy and mature semiconductor chips (85% of the market by volume) before the end of 2024. And all this with just 2% inflation.

For China to miss its 5% GDP target by a mere 0.5% this year its annual GDP growth rate would have to fall to 3.6% in the next two quarters. Substantially lower than Q1 (4.5%) and Q2 (6.3%). If this is the baseline case of analysts they are not doing their modelling properly.

pic.twitter.com/sOo9TRWshE

 

Edited August 23, 2023 by zugzwang

[dances with sheeple]

6 hours ago, scottbeard said:

A $7.6bn loss in China is nothing.  The Chinese economy is $19 trillion in size.  That's a loss equivalent to 0.04% of the economic output of the country.  Not great for the company concerned, but on its own would be a speed bump at best.  However, it is not alone of course.

That is the point I was making, I didn`t say this one company was the whole economy.

[dances with sheeple]

1 hour ago, Tony_Teacake said:

I read this as China has the ability to affect global inflation and is now doing so to an extent but for a long time contributed to global price stability and availability of cheap but durable items people like to buy for everyday use, this combined with cheap and plentiful debt kept wage demands low or off the table (wage demands are one reason the BOE will still be raising rates at the next meeting)

The main thing China is exporting now is volatility, defaults in China have knock on effects in global credit markets and as we know this can cause spikes to borrowing rates due to perceived risk and not just inflationary pressures.

That sounds like one of my quotes.

[Tony_Teacake]

21 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

That sounds like one of my quotes.

From this site?

[Flat Bear]

2 hours ago, Tony_Teacake said:

I read this as China has the ability to affect global inflation and is now doing so to an extent but for a long time contributed to global price stability and availability of cheap but durable items people like to buy for everyday use, this combined with cheap and plentiful debt kept wage demands low or off the table (wage demands are one reason the BOE will still be raising rates at the next meeting)

The main thing China is exporting now is volatility, defaults in China have knock on effects in global credit markets and as we know this can cause spikes to borrowing rates due to perceived risk and not just inflationary pressures.

Very good points. China is the Elephant in the room.

[dances with sheeple]

1 hour ago, Flat Bear said:

Very good points. China is the Elephant in the room.

Thanks.

[dances with sheeple]

1 hour ago, Tony_Teacake said:

From this site?

No, from the MSE (Must Spend Extra on property) Troll Farm

[scottbeard]

2 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

That is the point I was making, I didn`t say this one company was the whole economy.

Sorry.  Misunderstood

[Tony_Teacake]

10 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

No, from the MSE (Must Spend Extra on property) Troll Farm

LoL I like it. I am banned off there but have been reading your posts on there recently. I agree with a lot you say on there and you definitely know how to rub them up.

Once the land registry data shows some significant drops  I will be back on there posting. You will know it is me.

[dances with sheeple]

8 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Sorry.  Misunderstood

 There was a general whining session one day on Bloomberg about how they don`t really know details but the Chinese economy seems weak in many different ways, not least the top down control structure stifling investment and innovation (according to Bloomberg) that is really what I was quoting.

[dances with sheeple]

11 minutes ago, Tony_Teacake said:

LoL I like it. I am banned off there but have been reading your posts on there recently. I agree with a lot you say on there and you definitely know how to rub them up.

Once the land registry data shows some significant drops  I will be back on there posting. You will know it is me.

LOL,  I am also hated on there but not banned which pisses them off, doesn`t bother me though because the idea of trumpeting High property prices = Good on a so called "money saving" site strikes me as ridiculous, there are some very persistent HPI  = A God Given Right Trolls on there still banging away even after all the rate rises and I noticed the way they would swarm on you and try to get reactions or threads shut, the best way to avoid a ban is to keep it polite, on topic and just drop some reality in now and again. 

[dances with sheeple]

On 23/08/2023 at 23:10, Tony_Teacake said:

LoL I like it. I am banned off there but have been reading your posts on there recently. I agree with a lot you say on there and you definitely know how to rub them up.

Once the land registry data shows some significant drops  I will be back on there posting. You will know it is me.

I think I have spotted you!

[Tony_Teacake]

33 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

I think I have spotted you!

Not me it's my cousin LoL. 

Looks like they have removed  a few of my comments already after I replied to these ones

Aberdeenangarse said:

No one appears to have predicted 5.25% ?

Some people did, I think 7% base rate easily in reach now.

I replied "my cousin mentioned this plenty of time" and that RelievedSheff started engaging with me. You know him well as he always disagrees. I wonder if he is on here under a different handle.

You watch it won't be long until they throw me off again.

Edited August 25, 2023 by Tony_Teacake

[dances with sheeple]

14 minutes ago, Tony_Teacake said:

Not me it's my cousin LoL. 

Looks like they have removed  a few of my comments already after I replied to these ones

Aberdeenangarse said:

No one appears to have predicted 5.25% ?

Some people did, I think 7% base rate easily in reach now.

I replied "my cousin mentioned this plenty of time" and that RelievedSheff started engaging with me. You know him well as he always disagrees. I wonder if he is on here under a different handle.

You watch it won't be long until they throw me off again.

You have to avoid conflict with the resident Trolls, they want you and anyone who calls "crash" banned and they want threads shut so they will provoke you all the time, it is much harder for them now, the Price Police used to just swarm over crash threads and kill them off, now as it is all over the media it is way harder for them to shut it down, just keep making the obvious points in a polite and non-argumentative way is my advice.