Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Arpeggio]

12 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said:

No, they aren't a pandemic can infect you even if you are not trying to ingest it. It's pretty hard to eat a burger by accident. You are making a spurious comparison.

There was no comparison. Anyone reading my posts would see that I was talking about a different aspect of a pandemic than contagiousness.

If you want to say "you can't catch the burgers just from sitting next to someone on a bus" you can say that, no one will disagree with you. You won't catch chicken nuggets either.

 

12 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said:

Some. But are you prepared to wash your hands of someone who has diabetes and let them die or discount their death? You sound like a eugenicist.

Do you think people with diabetes should avoid junk food?

Bill Gates has suggested lowering the world population and here you are suggesting someone sounds like a eugenicist who knows that avoidable diabetes is behind 22,000 deaths a year.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/health-matters-preventing-type-2-diabetes/health-matters-preventing-type-2-diabetes

[anonguest]

3 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

Do you think people with diabetes should avoid junk food?

I think that is automatic.  I have yet to meet a diabetic who eats junk food!

[Arpeggio]

4 minutes ago, anonguest said:

I think that is automatic.  I have yet to meet a diabetic who eats junk food!

People who eat enough junk food end up diabetic and the main risk factors are being overweight / obese. 22,000 deaths per year before COMORBID19.

Edited January 19, 2021 by Arpeggio

[anonguest]

Just now, Arpeggio said:

People who eat enough junk food end up diabetic and the main risk factors are being overweight / obese.

True. But once the condtion has developed/taken hold then it is de facto irreversible (the very small number of people who can, seemingly, reverse it through lifestyle change is so small as to be irrelevant).

[anonguest]

Perhaps a caution to the UK Govt?  In its apparent 'cutting corners' plans to admister single doses only and delay second doses.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/19/single-covid-vaccine-dose-in-israel-less-effective-than-we-hoped

 

Edited January 19, 2021 by anonguest

[Arpeggio]

1 minute ago, anonguest said:

True. But once the condtion has developed/taken hold then it is de facto irreversible (the very small number of people who can, seemingly, reverse it through lifestyle change is so small as to be irrelevant).

If we avoided it in the first place we could make significant inroads into getting that 22,000 lower, and make progress fighting COMORBID19.

Reversing Type 2 Diabetes

[NobodyInParticular]

19 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

There was no comparison.

Then why mention it. 

19 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

Anyone reading my posts would see that I was talking about a different aspect of a pandemic than contagiousness.

Your posts often lack internal logic. It can be hard to tell what you are getting at sometimes 

19 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

Do you think people with diabetes should avoid junk food?

Yes. What is your point? 

19 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

Bill Gates has suggested lowering the world population and here you are suggesting someone sounds like a eugenicist

Lowering population isn't eugenics. Eugenics is about (as the name implies) about genetic 'quality'. Indeed, many classical eugenicists were in favour of a higher population just of the 'right' sort. 

19 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

 

 

[Arpeggio]

3 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Perhaps a caution to the UK Govt?  In its apparent 'cutting corners' plans to admister single doses only and delay second doses.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/19/single-covid-vaccine-dose-in-israel-less-effective-than-we-hoped

As I previously implied, there is a point of incompetence where it is so blatant, that it cannot be anything other than deliberate or from being half-ar$ed, as opposed to genuinely giving a chit but messing up.

Desperate medics lose 8,000 hospital beds after Matt Hancock's NHS blunder

[NobodyInParticular]

15 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

People who eat enough junk food end up diabetic and the main risk factors are being overweight / obese. 22,000 deaths per year before COMORBID19.

Junk food isn't the prerequisite as people got it before any of the fast/junk food chains. 

[Arpeggio]

3 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said:

It can be hard to tell what you are getting at sometimes.

For you.

[Arpeggio]

12 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said:

Junk food isn't the prerequisite as people got it before any of the fast/junk food chains. 

You stopped making sense since you wanted to reduce things to that "you can't catch burger from sitting next to someone".

Did you even bother to read this?

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/health-matters-preventing-type-2-diabetes/health-matters-preventing-type-2-diabetes

"The increasingly obesogenic environment we live in makes it harder for individuals to avoid unhealthy lifestyle choices. The obesogenic environment can be considered to be at the root of the prevention challenge in Type 2 diabetes."

• overweight or obesity with a body mass index (BMI) of 25 or more
• a large waist circumference – more than 80cm or 31.5 inches in women and 94cm or 37 inches in men

Edited January 19, 2021 by Arpeggio

[anonguest]

Just now, NobodyInParticular said:

Junk food isn't the prerequisite as people got it before any of the fast/junk food chains. 

I think that would have been Type 1 diabetes.  It is Type 2 which is, so I understand it, a much more prevalent condition arising through/provoked by modern Western lifestyles.

[Arpeggio]

9 minutes ago, anonguest said:

I think that would have been Type 1 diabetes.  It is Type 2 which is, so I understand it, a much more prevalent condition arising through/provoked by modern Western lifestyles.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7905734.stm

Edited January 19, 2021 by Arpeggio

[MARTINX9]

Could the UK’s decision to delay second doses of the vaccines be a major mistake?

Seems Israel is finding that a single dose of the Pfizer vaccine is not providing the protection assumed whereas the second dose within the recommended three weeks produces a significantly improved outcome resulting in an up to 12 fold increase in antibodies.

Maybe we should focus on getting the second doses to the over 80s before we start on the over 50s?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/19/single-covid-vaccine-dose-in-israel-less-effective-than-we-hoped

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, Arpeggio said:

As I previously implied, there is a point of incompetence where it is so blatant, that it cannot be anything other than deliberate or from being half-ar$ed, as opposed to genuinely giving a chit but messing up.

Desperate medics lose 8,000 hospital beds after Matt Hancock's NHS blunder

Maybe not quite the **** up it sounds.

The NHS is not short of beds, it is short of staff and particularly critical care staff. The private sector beds did not add much to capacity in the first lockdown as the private sector relies on the same pool of staff as the NHS.  

In the first lockdown using the contracted private beds ended up with the NHS effectively bidding against itself for the limited pool of agency staff. 

 

Edited January 19, 2021 by Confusion of VIs

[Confusion of VIs]

4 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Because......it just so happens, incredulously, that it is German politicians suggesting these dramatic measures.

Also.....I am not aware that driving without a license, unless perhaps a grossly repeated offence and/or with other unusual circumstances, is ordinarily treated with imprisonment?  fines and bans, yes.  But imprisonment (here in the UK)?

Even though we both agree it is morally wrong to do I do not believe that someone infected, fed up of being cooped up at home, who selfishly goes out for a short walk for, say, a short walk in the open at his local park only and has de facto negligible interaction with others poses a comparable risk as, say, someone failing to 'blackout', in the situation like The Blitz.  The latter easily leding to numerous deaths for sure. 

People being locked up for driving without a licence is remarkably common, some people just keep doing it until they are locked up. The measure is proposed for people who repeatedly refuse to quarantine - warned, fined, fined again and finally locked up. 

The idea of German bombers being guided to their targets by the odd light being left on was a wartime myth, if it was true the bombers would never have hit their targets as thousands of decoy lights were set up all over the country.

 

[Confusion of VIs]

Cheap antiparasitic could cut chance of Covid-19 deaths by up to 75% Researchers hail ivermectin findings but say more studies needed on using drug

Sound promising, another dirt cheap drug that seems to be effective.

Although not in the US 12 cents to $960 that's an impressive mark up for a generic.  

Quote

“It’s a generic drug used all over the world. It costs 12 cents to make the drug substance. The drug costs $3 in India, $960 in the US,” Dr Hill told the Financial Times.

 

[NobodyInParticular]

9 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

For you.

And the several other posters who have also had issues with your 'logic'. 

[NobodyInParticular]

6 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

People being locked up for driving without a licence is remarkably common, some people just keep doing it until they are locked up. The measure is proposed for people who repeatedly refuse to quarantine - warned, fined, fined again and finally locked up. 

The idea of German bombers being guided to their targets by the odd light being left on was a wartime myth, if it was true the bombers would never have hit their targets as thousands of decoy lights were set up all over the country.

 

I am reminded of the time that a German bomber bombed a decoy target with wooden bombs, allegedly. 

[NobodyInParticular]

9 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7905734.stm

5% per 1000?

[NobodyInParticular]

9 hours ago, anonguest said:

I think that would have been Type 1 diabetes.  It is Type 2 which is, so I understand it, a much more prevalent condition arising through/provoked by modern Western lifestyles.

No, people have been getting type 2 for thousands of years, they've just tended to then die of it, which kept a lid on numbers. Even with the graph posted, some of the effect of an increase in numbers will be survival rates over the last 25 years 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

46 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said:

No, people have been getting type 2 for thousands of years, they've just tended to then die of it, which kept a lid on numbers. Even with the graph posted, some of the effect of an increase in numbers will be survival rates over the last 25 years 

This is kind of back to my Darwinian point, over time we can damage the collective population by enhancing the survivability of traits we might not desire.

That said, if all the new entrants are over 50 and less likely to have kids, then the trait will only get passed on a more latent form. But I guess a younger person has more time to fix their diet and exercise routine, which could hide / prevent a predisposition.

Edited January 20, 2021 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[koala_bear]

11 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

Could the UK’s decision to delay second doses of the vaccines be a major mistake?

Seems Israel is finding that a single dose of the Pfizer vaccine is not providing the protection assumed whereas the second dose within the recommended three weeks produces a significantly improved outcome resulting in an up to 12 fold increase in antibodies.

Maybe we should focus on getting the second doses to the over 80s before we start on the over 50s?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/19/single-covid-vaccine-dose-in-israel-less-effective-than-we-hoped

The vaccine trials included very few older people (vaccine effectiveness in general is lower in older people), hence some of this is measuring the lower effectiveness in older people that the trials didn't.

Israel has also been measuring vaccine effectiveness by several different metrics from death to asymptomatic cases (similiar to Oxford /AZ trial methodology), the later is less flattering than the Pfizer trial definition. (Also see Chinese vaccine in UAE with flattering effectiveness definition with effectiveness just over 80% but 52% in Brazil where they when for the Oxford/AZ effectiveness measure.

Many of those vaccinated were going out and not following guidance from day 1 (as case rates were rocketing generally) and with day 12 as being a useful marker for start of some protection were getting infected

[Peter Hun]

Priti Patel says government should have closed borders last March to stop coronavirus

 

Home Secretary says she wanted to close borders last year but appears to suggest she was overruled

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/priti-patel-close-borders-coronavirus-travel-b1789926.html

 

So she's not entirely stupid after all.

[CityLAD88888]

2 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Priti Patel says government should have closed borders last March to stop coronavirus

 

Home Secretary says she wanted to close borders last year but appears to suggest she was overruled

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/priti-patel-close-borders-coronavirus-travel-b1789926.html

 

So she's not entirely stupid after all.

Interesting, thinnest of silver linings but at least some facets of a zero covid were at least mooted by some in government at the time. I wonder what the push back was? Purely economic? Fear of looking Xenophobic maybe?: WHO were stupidly advising against travel bans/being pressed to advise against them by China, the Orange clown had unilaterally imposed one on China (most likely politically motivated) so fear of not wanting to look 'Trumpist' as such?

All speculation of course, but sadly clearly (as I've mentioned before) the zero covid approach was seen as an outlier (NZ, Taiwan) view at the time by most in the West and so we stupidly waited and the rest is, as they say, history.