Job cuts at big firms

[Si1]

6 minutes ago, longgone said:

Okay so Pete Waterman is your mate.

Omg

[crazypabs]

Get back on topic or get a room people!!!

[Aidan Ap Word]

34 minutes ago, crazypabs said:

Get back on topic or get a room people!!!

Here's an attempt to get back on topic:

1. technology is moving change faster now than it did 50 years ago
2. yes, automation and AI will affect almost all "work" that is left for humans to do (varying degreees based on varying levels of repeatability, safety, mundanity and creativity requirements)
3. what value add will humans need to do in the future?
4. and big corporates with big momentum (ships changing course, finding it hard)

... and much of this is affecting the big corporates who have been slicing profits off the top of the established/expected delivery of 'value'. Where that perception of value has only changed (relatively) slowly over the decades.

Changing perception of 'value' (where, by example, having a car was seen as the route to freedom ... having to have to own a car to get about is slowing beginnign to be perceived as a constraint on freedom) ...

All of these mean the big behemoths of business are at a significant disadvantage ... so it's no surprise they are shedding staff.

All of this has the feel of inevitability/unstoppable momentum to it.

I currently work for a very large service provider to business' in terms of their funds in and out of the business - and am currently focussed on the small business clients - all of which are NOT in the UK.

So there will be much pain - and the days of the "lifetime employee" are largely over (and soon to be forgotten).

What really worries me is that government (IMO anyway) changes significantly slower than corporate world ... and government really should be there to perceive and (justly?) address the social cost of all this ... they can't even negotiate national political change in less than 2 years ... how on earth are they going to address these big changes coming? And how good will they be at responding when big swathes of the mainstream population are hit by this revolution?

 

Edited October 11, 2019 by Aidan Ap Word
Spelling and clarity.

[winkie]

2 hours ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

Here's an attempt to get back on topic:

1. technology is moving change faster now than it did 50 years ago
2. yes, automation and AI will affect almost all "work" that is left for humans to do (varying degreees based on varying levels of repeatability, safety, mundanity and creativity requirements)
3. what value add will humans need to do in the future?
4. and big corporates with big momentum (ships changing course, finding it hard)

... and much of this is affecting the big corporates who have been slicing profits off the top of the established/expected delivery of 'value'. Where that perception of value has only changed (relatively) slowly over the decades.

Changing perception of 'value' (where, by example, having a car was seen as the route to freedom ... having to have to own a car to get about is slowing beginnign to be perceived as a constraint on freedom) ...

All of these mean the big behemoths of business are at a significant disadvantage ... so it's no surprise they are shedding staff.

All of this has the feel of inevitability/unstoppable momentum to it.

I currently work for a very large service provider to business' in terms of their funds in and out of the business - and am currently focussed on the small business clients - all of which are NOT in the UK.

So there will be much pain - and the days of the "lifetime employee" are largely over (and soon to be forgotten).

What really worries me is that government (IMO anyway) changes significantly slower than corporate world ... and government really should be there to perceive and (justly?) address the social cost of all this ... they can't even negotiate national political change in less than 2 years ... how on earth are they going to address these big changes coming? And how good will they be at responding when big swathes of the mainstream population are hit by this revolution?

 

Agree.....change is happening, how people work, how often they work, who they work for, all changing....irregular work, different work, short-term contract work.

....the problem that will have to be looked into in more detail and solved is; Bills, rents, loan repayments tend to be regular, when work will not be, nothing about it will be a job for life, committed, regular and safe......there will be work time, but also, job searching time and leisure time.....regular bills but with an irregular and unpredictable income.

[Aidan Ap Word]

1 hour ago, winkie said:

Agree.....change is happening, how people work, how often they work, who they work for, all changing....irregular work, different work, short-term contract work.

....the problem that will have to be looked into in more detail and solved is; Bills, rents, loan repayments tend to be regular, when work will not be, nothing about it will be a job for life, committed, regular and safe......there will be work time, but also, job searching time and leisure time.....regular bills but with an irregular and unpredictable income.

Sounds scary for us "old folks" (by that I mean: me).

I have no idea what my chrildren are going to do.

I suspect the disruption for them will be greater.

[Errol]

40 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

Sounds scary for us "old folks" (by that I mean: me).

No, older people are fine. We have at least 10-15 years before massive impacts are felt.

It's the people who are children now who will have problems.

[winkie]

20 hours ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

Sounds scary for us "old folks" (by that I mean: me).

I have no idea what my chrildren are going to do.

I suspect the disruption for them will be greater.

The only thing scary to 'old folks' is change.....they know what they like, and they find it hard learning new things, keeping up with the times, and new technology.

[Riedquat]

30 minutes ago, winkie said:

The only thing scary to 'old folks' is change.....they know what they like, and they find it hard learning new things, keeping up with the times, and new technology.

Hard to find much motivation to try to keep up with it when it's mostly just making the world a sh1ttier place to live in. Just a pity that too many people equate novelty with good, and seem to assume that because it all improved life in the past it still does. Sure, there are exceptions but a dislike of change - not scared, just a dislike, don't try to pretend they're the same, that's just dismissing peoples' views, is entirely rational when the vision of the future the people developing this technology are pushing looks pretty damned crap.

[Riedquat]

On 10/10/2019 at 14:24, jimmy2x3 said:

lots of petrol heads cant stand the fact that their love of all things vroom vroom is coming to a finish, its like listening to the anti windmill brigade all over again even though windmills now produce the cheapest power in the uk. im sure people on horse and carts and steam trains and penny farthing bikes all acted the same with their resistance to the world moving on and leaving them behind. 

God almighty, people like you are a depressing stain on the world. You look at the mess you've caused with pride and sneer at those who hate the damage you've done. Utter vermin.

There's something amusingly ironic though about people who attack others for preferring to look to the past whilst having to look to the past to try to justify change in general. I suppose you could argue that cuts both ways, but only if you take a simple black-and-white view of things.

Edited October 12, 2019 by Riedquat

[mattyboy1973]

On 10/10/2019 at 20:31, reddog said:

I don't think it would be very easy for them, especially if they are operating in remote locations, such as open cast mines in the middle of Australia.

Actually they are starting to produce electric mine vehicles now, and one of the big motivations is that can be cheaper to set up a PV array out in the sticks than to contantly transport diesel.

Not particularly relevant to most situations, but interesting nonetheless is this large mining dump truck (https://www.autoblog.com/2019/08/26/edumper-electric-mining-truck-self-charging/?guccounter=2) that generates all of its own electric power, which is possible because they are bringing heavy loads down from a high mine - so it just runs generators on the downward, fully laden leg and gets enough juice to take the empty truck back up.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

On 11/10/2019 at 15:24, winkie said:

Agree.....change is happening, how people work, how often they work, who they work for, all changing....irregular work, different work, short-term contract work.

....the problem that will have to be looked into in more detail and solved is; Bills, rents, loan repayments tend to be regular, when work will not be, nothing about it will be a job for life, committed, regular and safe......there will be work time, but also, job searching time and leisure time.....regular bills but with an irregular and unpredictable income.

I’m slightly less sure this is permanent shift in the way of work, this has happened before in the mid 1800s. Essentially you can have drawn out deflationary periods.

Personally I believe the big issue is debt and low interest rates. High rates bankrupt zombie firms and then new entrants can appear more easily.

My solution would be to whack up interest rates to 10%, send the rubbish firms and property developments to the wall, then get people to start over.

Without creative destruction, you get value destruction.

[jimmy2x3]

39 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I’m slightly less sure this is permanent shift in the way of work, this has happened before in the mid 1800s. Essentially you can have drawn out deflationary periods.

Personally I believe the big issue is debt and low interest rates. High rates bankrupt zombie firms and then new entrants can appear more easily.

My solution would be to whack up interest rates to 10%, send the rubbish firms and property developments to the wall, then get people to start over.

Without creative destruction, you get value destruction.

my solution would be a citizens wage and a local sales tax in place of buisness arates and council tax. let the people keep the money they earn rather than taking it from them and playing around with it then handing it back. cut out the middleman ie tax credits and universal credit, the administration of council tax and buisness rates. a great amount of the council is involved in shuffling our money around they should just stop doing it and go home. 

 

[TwoWolves]

Current employment problems have little to do with automation or even changes in the automobile industry. Debt exhaustion and asset price inflation have tapped-out the consumer. This is the consequence of the 2008 bailouts, the last gasp of globalization before it collapses. 

[GregBowman]

4 hours ago, TwoWolves said:

Current employment problems have little to do with automation or even changes in the automobile industry. Debt exhaustion and asset price inflation have tapped-out the consumer. This is the consequence of the 2008 bailouts, the last gasp of globalization before it collapses. 

So why is leisure air travel increasing at an average of 5-6% and shows no sign of abating ?

The real cost of a car is cheaper than ever effectively a premium car for less than a third of a premium holiday for a whole years use ?

Millions of consumers still have plenty of money or access to it - for all the reasons stated elsewhere they are delaying or not purchasing at all ( younger generations ) cars 

So actually over supply, technology change and consumer choice has everything to do with employment and viability of the automotive industry 

Motorcycle sales are on their strongest upwards trend for twenty years as well having a small impact as well

[winkie]

19 hours ago, Riedquat said:

Hard to find much motivation to try to keep up with it when it's mostly just making the world a sh1ttier place to live in. Just a pity that too many people equate novelty with good, and seem to assume that because it all improved life in the past it still does. Sure, there are exceptions but a dislike of change - not scared, just a dislike, don't try to pretend they're the same, that's just dismissing peoples' views, is entirely rational when the vision of the future the people developing this technology are pushing looks pretty damned crap.

Because when you are comfortable and older you have made your bed, you have calculated your future age span and budgeted accordingly.....you have no need to progress, learn new tricks or buy new toys to keep ahead of the game......you have already played the game, the game won't last that much longer and it will be over.?

13 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I’m slightly less sure this is permanent shift in the way of work, this has happened before in the mid 1800s. Essentially you can have drawn out deflationary periods.

Personally I believe the big issue is debt and low interest rates. High rates bankrupt zombie firms and then new entrants can appear more easily.

My solution would be to whack up interest rates to 10%, send the rubbish firms and property developments to the wall, then get people to start over.

Without creative destruction, you get value destruction.

Zombie firms will eventually drop out, it just takes longer......a zombie firm will forever require new finance, down to the providers how long they wish to support it......interest rates play only a small part, it is the principal debt amount that is the big issue.....call that in and it is over.?

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

1 hour ago, winkie said:

?

Zombie firms will eventually drop out, it just takes longer......a zombie firm will forever require new finance, down to the providers how long they wish to support it......interest rates play only a small part, it is the principal debt amount that is the big issue.....call that in and it is over.?

You forget the role of extend and pretend.

Admitting it's a Zombie is bad for the banks short-term balance sheet and this year's bonus.

[winkie]

18 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

You forget the role of extend and pretend.

Admitting it's a Zombie is bad for the banks short-term balance sheet and this year's bonus.

Sure that must enter into the equation.....must be reasons why things happen as they do.?

[GregBowman]

On 12/10/2019 at 13:08, winkie said:

The only thing scary to 'old folks' is change.....they know what they like, and they find it hard learning new things, keeping up with the times, and new technology.

Doesn’t vary much Between ages the fear of change it’s a hard wired primate defence mechanism 

The chimp paradox Book explains it well 

Edited October 14, 2019 by GregBowman

[Si1]

On 13/10/2019 at 05:21, GregBowman said:

So why is leisure air travel increasing at an average of 5-6% and shows no sign of abating ?

The real cost of a car is cheaper than ever effectively a premium car for less than a third of a premium holiday for a whole years use ?

Millions of consumers still have plenty of money or access to it - for all the reasons stated elsewhere they are delaying or not purchasing at all ( younger generations ) cars 

So actually over supply, technology change and consumer choice has everything to do with employment and viability of the automotive industry 

Motorcycle sales are on their strongest upwards trend for twenty years as well having a small impact as well

So why are the BoE angling for interest rate cuts? (Genuine question)

Thompson holidays? Aigle Azur? Patisserie Valerie, pizza express?

Edited October 15, 2019 by Si1

[GregBowman]

28 minutes ago, Si1 said:

So why are the BoE angling for interest rate cuts? (Genuine question)

Thompson holidays? Aigle Azur? Patisserie Valerie, pizza express?

I appreciate it’s a genuine question the first one ! But not sure they have a clue Carnage cut interests rates after failing to raise them as a panic not required post referendum move 

Patisserie Valerie over expanded and greed of Johnson caught up with it and pizza express well known coupon based basket case for years 

Thomas Cook tough biz - agree all are sort of counter argument but not sure conclusive 

Hard to discern whether this is industry structural, economic or just the usual ebb and flow of business 

 

[Si1]

10 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

 

Hard to discern whether this is industry structural, economic or just the usual ebb and flow of business 

 

Indeed.

[HariSeldon]

 

On 12/10/2019 at 20:09, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

On 11/10/2019 at 15:24, winkie said:

change is happening, how people work, how often they work, who they work for, all changing....irregular work, different work, short-term contract

I’m slightly less sure this is permanent shift in the way of work, this has happened before in the mid 1800s.

Exactly, people have been saying the same since the Industrial Revolution. From the 1960s on it was Robots were going to take all our jobs. This decade it's Artificial Intelligence will put us all out of work.

Yet despite 200 years of such predictions there's probably more people in work than ever in the planet's history.

 

[Riedquat]

40 minutes ago, HariSeldon said:

Exactly, people have been saying the same since the Industrial Revolution. From the 1960s on it was Robots were going to take all our jobs. This decade it's Artificial Intelligence will put us all out of work.

Yet despite 200 years of such predictions there's probably more people in work than ever in the planet's history.

200 years really isn't that long a time ago. And for a large proportion of those 200 years the greater productivity it brought is what moved us from barely being able to produce enough to scrape by. We're past that point now though, so it's either produce more luxuries (a lot of which will be wasteful cheap tat) or cut working. The latter sounds great on the surface but raises a lot of further issues that we're no closer to solving, such as how to avoid it creating even more skewed wealth distribution. We're already seeing the negative side effects, look at the lack of job security.

[winkie]

3 hours ago, HariSeldon said:

 

Exactly, people have been saying the same since the Industrial Revolution. From the 1960s on it was Robots were going to take all our jobs. This decade it's Artificial Intelligence will put us all out of work.

Yet despite 200 years of such predictions there's probably more people in work than ever in the planet's history.

 

I beg to differ......people have always worked..... what you mean by work is paid money to work, selling their time to others for cash... how many hours a week are they actually paid to work?......what in work benefits do they have.....it is a fact that although people are working over a lifetime they are working less.....why kids leave school at 18 now staying studying for longer, people who can stop working or working as many hours during tranches of life or retire early.......thousands also are working caring for others.?

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

1 hour ago, winkie said:

I beg to differ......people have always worked..... what you mean by work is paid money to work, selling their time to others for cash... how many hours a week are they actually paid to work?......what in work benefits do they have.....it is a fact that although people are working over a lifetime they are working less.....why kids leave school at 18 now staying studying for longer, people who can stop working or working as many hours during tranches of life or retire early.......thousands also are working caring for others.?

Yes, agree.

Division of Labour led to efficiencies, but then some gained more than others and gradually capital was created and then capitalism was thought up.

Of course this also led to the demise of the hunter/warrior class might is right credo. Today money is power, no doubt 50,000 years ago Warren Buffett would have been eaten by that sabretooth - I think that was one of his quotes.

 

 

Edited October 15, 2019 by Mikhail Liebenstein