Timbuk3 Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 With recent announcements from M&co, William Hill, Pizza Express, etc about the hundreds of shops they are closing. Plus Disney just announced they are doing direct release to streaming services - i.e. no need for big cinema complexes, paying £8 for popcorn, etc. Just watch it at home. Will this be final death knell for the high st ? There are just too many shops in this country, no one needs them. I guess they will be converted to housing or other things. But, the local councils are left holding the bill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timbuk3 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-intu-prop-divestiture-trafford-centre/british-mall-owner-intu-puts-trafford-centre-for-sale-idUKKCN25801Z Trafford centre up for sale. Intu asset sale starts and so does price discovery for all commercial property. If the price of this sale goes through -20% as stated then all other similar assets will have to be marked down in value by a similar amount. Hence likes of British Land start to decrease their holdings etc, more people want to withdraw their investment and so becomes a vicious spiral of downward valuations. And of course the councils that have invested in the like will start to realise they have been sold a dooby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 (edited) Warnings of 'ghost towns' if staff do not return to the office https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53925917# posted here as I don'tthink its just shopping centres that coucils bought Edited August 27, 2020 by Saving For a Space Ship Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highcontrast Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 ‘The Big Short 2.0’: How Hedge Funds Profited Off the Pain of Malls They should have gone short on shopping centres, not long. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/business/mall-short-hedge-funds.html?fbclid=IwAR0vhsy41NpOi57mUiarkYeMeTYbMTEpAx-jxQZVsG5AU71vq0_oyy5L9DA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 UK retailers hit by first weekly fall in shoppers since Covid lockdown https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/14/uk-retailers-fall-in-shoppers-covid-lockdown Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timbuk3 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Saving For a Space Ship said: UK retailers hit by first weekly fall in shoppers since Covid lockdown https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/14/uk-retailers-fall-in-shoppers-covid-lockdown And 3rd Quarter rents are due soon. More insolvencies on the high street. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Highly Leveraged Commercial Real Estate Bets that UK Local Authorities Took to Meet Budget Shortfalls Begin to Unravel https://wolfstreet.com/2020/10/13/uk-local-authorities-highly-leveraged-commercial-real-estate-bets-begin-to-unravel/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmondtw Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 I guess they will be converted to housing or other things. But, the local councils are left holding the bill. If council s have bought them they will sell when they are converted to housing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainb Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 If council s have bought them they will sell when they are converted to housing Quite. They grant planning permission themselves and then sell on with planning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timbuk3 Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Quite. They grant planning permission themselves and then sell on with planning. According to Barclays, re-purposing a shopping mall drastically reduces it's value. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/15/mall-values-could-b.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainb Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 According to Barclays, re-purposing a shopping mall drastically reduces it's value. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/15/mall-values-could-b.html Thats USA - where there are is tons of land and those malls are out of town. "Most" shopping centre REITs have alternative use valuation's in this country now at 90% of their shopping centre value. New river reit - who has the low cost nonsense councils tend to buy up as last resort being the most obvious example. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryrot Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 (edited) Quite. They grant planning permission themselves and then sell on with planning. That might work if councils restrict their purchases to properties within their boundaries. What happens when they buy buildings elsewhere? "Thames Tower in Reading, one of the properties bought by Spelthorne council as part of a £285 million deal in August 2018" Reckon Reading Borough Council will OK this for flats - for the benefit of Spelthorne BC? (In fact Reading BC are so useless they might, but you get the drift. More examples below) https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2018-12-04/councils-borrow-billions-to-buy-real-estate "Surrey County Council has spent £70 million on a shopping centre in Worcestershire, while Torbay Council in Devon has purchased a distribution warehouse 230 miles away in Medway, Kent. Broxbourne Council in Hertfordshire, meanwhile, has spent £17 million on a site occupied by Tesco 170 miles away in Grimsby. Surrey council records show that 80% of its investments have been made outside the county. In April, Isle of Wight Council forked out £11 million on an industrial estate in Salford Quays, Manchester, two months after the seller invited offers of £8.7m. The council says that "brochure prices are used as marketing material to attract buyers and don't necessarily reflect market value" and that the estate was bought through a two-stage competitive bidding process." Edited October 15, 2020 by dryrot add link Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainb Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 That might work if councils restrict their purchases to properties within their boundaries. What happens when they buy buildings elsewhere? "Thames Tower in Reading, one of the properties bought by Spelthorne council as part of a £285 million deal in August 2018" Reckon Reading Borough Council will OK this for flats - for the benefit of Spelthorne BC? (In fact Reading BC are so useless they might, but you get the drift. More examples below) https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2018-12-04/councils-borrow-billions-to-buy-real-estate "Surrey County Council has spent £70 million on a shopping centre in Worcestershire, while Torbay Council in Devon has purchased a distribution warehouse 230 miles away in Medway, Kent. Broxbourne Council in Hertfordshire, meanwhile, has spent £17 million on a site occupied by Tesco 170 miles away in Grimsby. Surrey council records show that 80% of its investments have been made outside the county. In April, Isle of Wight Council forked out £11 million on an industrial estate in Salford Quays, Manchester, two months after the seller invited offers of £8.7m. The council says that "brochure prices are used as marketing material to attract buyers and don't necessarily reflect market value" and that the estate was bought through a two-stage competitive bidding process." I cant comment on such madness. To be fair at one point there was a logic to council buying up the local centre. Nobody at all wanted them, prices were "rock bottom" for the land and the council wanted to keep the business rates and "local shopping". Knowing that the alternative land use was always a possibility. From that some councils seemingly have gone on an investment spree elsewhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timbuk3 Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Thats USA - where there are is tons of land and those malls are out of town. "Most" shopping centre REITs have alternative use valuation's in this country now at 90% of their shopping centre value. New river reit - who has the low cost nonsense councils tend to buy up as last resort being the most obvious example. What starts in the US tends to follow to UK sooner or later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timbuk3 Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Highly Leveraged Commercial Real Estate Bets that UK Local Authorities Took to Meet Budget Shortfalls Begin to Unravel https://wolfstreet.com/2020/10/13/uk-local-authorities-highly-leveraged-commercial-real-estate-bets-begin-to-unravel/ First picture of the guy who arranged all the financing and deals for Spelthorne council. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 First picture of the guy who arranged all the financing and deals for Spelthorne council. and now whoever they left holding the baby .. https://memes.yarn.co/yarn-clip/3349d0b3-14be-4554-95f1-2d54938cbb53 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeanutButter Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Croydon council on verge of bankruptcy after risky investments https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/29/croydon-council-on-verge-of-bankruptcy-after-risky-investments Croydon borrowed £545m during the past three years to invest in housing and commercial property. This included a £200m loan to its own housing development arm Brick By Brick, which has yet to return a dividend. The council has capital borrowings of nearly £2bn. It invested £30m in the local Croydon Park Hotel in 2018-19. This went into administration in June. It also spent £46m on a shopping centre. The council’s strategy of “invest[ing] its way out of financial challenge” was “inherently flawed”, as councillors did not properly understand the retail and leisure markets, auditors said. It allowed a £39m overspend on adult and children’s social care to spin out of control after 2017 when an Ofsted inspection branded its children’s services “inadequate”, and subsequently used accounting tricks to mask its failure to control costs in these departments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Croydon council on verge of bankruptcy after risky investments https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/29/croydon-council-on-verge-of-bankruptcy-after-risky-investments Croydon borrowed £545m during the past three years to invest in housing and commercial property. This included a £200m loan to its own housing development arm Brick By Brick, which has yet to return a dividend. The council has capital borrowings of nearly £2bn. It invested £30m in the local Croydon Park Hotel in 2018-19. This went into administration in June. It also spent £46m on a shopping centre. The council’s strategy of “invest[ing] its way out of financial challenge” was “inherently flawed”, as councillors did not properly understand the retail and leisure markets, auditors said. It allowed a £39m overspend on adult and children’s social care to spin out of control after 2017 when an Ofsted inspection branded its children’s services “inadequate”, and subsequently used accounting tricks to mask its failure to control costs in these departments. So if they go bankrupt, and they borrowed from the govts public borrowing fund, who loses out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeanutButter Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 So if they go bankrupt, and they borrowed from the govts public borrowing fund, who loses out? Same as ever: us, the taxpayers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 So if they go bankrupt, and they borrowed from the govts public borrowing fund, who loses out? If you pay taxes - you do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Up to 18,000 UK high street premises could be vacant amid Covid crisis https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/04/up-to-18000-uk-high-street-premises-could-be-vacant-amid-covid-crisis Oh Deeeer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tapori Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Specials - Ghost Town Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will! Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 No matter how bad it gets, there's always an idea to make things worse! FT Alphaville: Making real-estate assets work for local governments (Registration but not subscription required.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/10/land-securities-property-portfolio-dividend-piccadilly-bluewater-half-year-pre-tax-loss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tapori Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 0 Accountability from spivs, shysters, bureaucrats, politicians and corrupt corporates. Absolute state Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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