Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.

[hurlerontheditch]

5 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

UK services looking slippy.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/uk-services-growth-slows-7-month-low-firms-093408851--finance.html

 

Quote

 

The IHS Markit survey of companies in the services sector for October found that a "number of firms noted that Brexit-related uncertainty and concerns about the global economic outlook had constrained demand growth for business services".

It also said: "Some survey respondents also commented on subdued consumer spending in October. Consumer-facing sectors such as hotels, restaurants and leisure reported the weakest performance."

selling those flat whites to each other is not giving the economy the boost it needs

[zugzwang]

1 minute ago, hurlerontheditch said:

selling those flat whites to each other is not giving the economy the boost it needs

Fewer and fewer reasons for the UK to avoid a recession next year.

[dugsbody]

3 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Fewer and fewer reasons for the UK to avoid a recession next year.

The longer the timeline the closer people predicting a recession get to being correct. Doesn't mean anything.

[macca13]

2 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

The longer the timeline the closer people predicting a recession get to being correct. Doesn't mean anything.

Can’t prop up a failing economy on working tax credits and printed money forever.. 

[dugsbody]

3 minutes ago, macca13 said:

Can’t prop up a failing economy on working tax credits and printed money forever.. 

Doesn't matter. I could predict that the economy is going to tank at some point because of planetary alignments and I'll be proved correct at some point.

[frederico]

2 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Doesn't matter. I could predict that the economy is going to tank at some point because of planetary alignments and I'll be proved correct at some point.

Yes but within your lifetime?

[winkie]

The economy is tipping because there are too many agencies and middlepeople......money is more important than peoples well being....we no longer invest properly into our children......there is no common sense, because common sense costs money....... repeat and return.?

[zugzwang]

1 hour ago, dugsbody said:

The longer the timeline the closer people predicting a recession get to being correct. Doesn't mean anything.

It meant a lot to me! I forecast sterling < $1.30 and the FTSE 100 < 7,000 on here six months ago and cashed out accordingly. Too bad you missed the opportunity.

A recession next year is certainly not set in stone. Either Spreadsheet Phil or the Canadian Dummy could start spending again and effect a rescue. My instinct is that they will not, as their entirely useless equilibrium models will continue to forecast fair weather until the contraction is well established.

[winkie]

 

[dugsbody]

3 hours ago, zugzwang said:

It meant a lot to me! I forecast sterling < $1.30 and the FTSE 100 < 7,000 on here six months ago and cashed out accordingly. Too bad you missed the opportunity.

Yes, this forum is filled with people who are fantastic at trading. We get to hear all about it after the fact.

[zugzwang]

3 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Yes, this forum is filled with people who are fantastic at trading. We get to hear all about it after the fact.

Contrary to the radiant projections of the BoE/Treasury/OBR, the UK economy has barely managed to get above stall speed all year. We very nearly had a recession last winter. A combination of factors: the concurrent financial crises in China/Canada/Australia (see Keen), the soaring costs of oil and gas, Brexit, falling London house prices, the unwinding of Drumpf's tax stimulus, lead me to believe that a downturn is pretty much baked in for H1 2019... unless we see much more QE/govt borrowing.

Clearly, these dynamics will continue to impact both the stock market and sterling.

Foresight not hindsight.

Quote

The prospect of a recession in 2018 could mean the next rate hike doesn't happen for years. That's what's moved sterling 5-10%, I suspect.

And with the Trump dollar off to the Moon, 1.30 seems like a more credible target to me than 1.40. 

Quote

I'm pretty much a secular bear re sterling. Expecting more QE in fact.

FTSE puked hard today over the Trump tariffs. A retest of 7K isn't out of the question. I'll keep adding to my gold and miners, plenty of time to pick up some cheap financials.

 

Edited November 5, 2018 by zugzwang

[chronyx]

Ex Vauxhall dealer near me has now become a commercial vehicle specialist. Sort of matches the precis of this thread. PCP tapped out, industrial reflation tapped in. Bearing in mind the commercial vehicle company feels confident enough to take on a new building lease/purchase in the current financial environment

Edited November 6, 2018 by chronyx

[No One]

3 hours ago, chronyx said:

Ex Vauxhall dealer near me has now become a commercial vehicle specialist. Sort of matches the precis of this thread. PCP tapped out, industrial reflation tapped in. Bearing in mind the commercial vehicle company feels confident enough to take on a new building lease/purchase in the current financial environment

?

[No One]

12 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Drumpf's

No one who uses that slur deserves attention. Not because it's insulting, but because it's childish. The English vocabulary has an extensive range of profanities for you to use.

[chronyx]

23 minutes ago, No One said:

?

What is that i just see a square

[No One]

12 minutes ago, chronyx said:

What is that i just see a square

smily face - "blank face"

[thehowler]

14 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Contrary to the radiant projections of the BoE/Treasury/OBR, the UK economy has barely managed to get above stall speed all year. We very nearly had a recession last winter.

Do you not think we'll see a bounce for sterling if we get to transition from the EU? The first year at least should see a slight jolt, enough to ward off recession.

Anyway, I thought durhamborn said all bets were off on this thread if no cataclysmic shift before this Noel? That shows even the most convincing/well-argued forecasts can come to naught.

[zugzwang]

3 hours ago, No One said:

No one who uses that slur deserves attention. Not because it's insulting, but because it's childish. The English vocabulary has an extensive range of profanities for you to use.

But 'Drumpf' has onomatopoeic consonance. It's the sound of a flatulent warthog.

[zugzwang]

1 hour ago, thehowler said:

Do you not think we'll see a bounce for sterling if we get to transition from the EU? The first year at least should see a slight jolt, enough to ward off recession.

Anyway, I thought durhamborn said all bets were off on this thread if no cataclysmic shift before this Noel? That shows even the most convincing/well-argued forecasts can come to naught.

A smooth transition would be best for sterling. Maybe we'd get back to $1.35?

Steve Keen's 'Minsky' is the only macro model I have any confidence in but using it to make quantitative calls is still a matter of guesswork and hunches. I'm almost embarrassed by how little science there is to it, frankly. On the other hand, you've got to have a narrative. Buying and holding is simply taking a bet that the future will resemble the past and I certainly don't believe that.

Where did durhamborn go, anyway? We need an update!

 

[hurlerontheditch]

Quote

UK GDP rose 0.6% between July and September, according to the Office for National Statistics, compared to the second quarter.

The annual rate is 1.5% up from 1.2%.

 

[thehowler]

On 06/11/2018 at 16:18, zugzwang said:

Where did durhamborn go, anyway? We need an update!

Look and you will find.

[hurlerontheditch]

Quote

 

UK earnings excluding bonuses grew by 3.2% in the three months to September, compared with a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics says.

Including bonuses, earnings grew by 3%.

 

BOE hand will be forced on interest rates

Edited November 13, 2018 by hurlerontheditch

[Will!]

SSE Energy Services transaction not proceeding

Retail energy suppliers will be squeezed hard if and when wholesale energy prices rise but consumers' ability to pay their utility bills does not.

[winkie]

 

[Will!]

On 02/02/2018 at 20:26, Fence said:

I need to check but thought SSE was paying a div higher than their free cash flow.

For those who've bought SSE because its an energy generator that should do well in a reflation cycle, it published its Q3 Trading Statement on 8th February.

http://sse.com/media/563049/SSE_Q3_18_19_Trading_Statement.pdf

Quote

SSE plc completed the third quarter of its financial year on 31 December 2018. This Trading Statement:

• reiterates SSE’s intention to recommend a full-year dividend for 2018/19 of 97.5 pence per share and to deliver the five-year dividend plan set out in May 2018;
• sets out SSE’s current assessment that the Capacity Market ‘standstill period’ means it is unlikely to receive, or be able to recognise, contracted income from the Capacity Market until after this financial year, resulting in an estimated 6p reduction in current year adjusted earnings per share (EPS)* which takes the forecast for adjusted EPS in 2018/19 to be in the range of 64p to 69p;

*Adjusted EPS excludes SSE Energy Services (‘held for disposal’).

So the dividend is greater than the EPS.

Quote

SSE intends to use up to £200m of the proceeds from the recent Dunmaglass and Stronelairg disposals to fund a discretionary share buyback in accordance with the authority granted by shareholders at SSE's Annual General Meeting on 19 July 2018 and Chapter 12 of the Listing Rules. The buyback is expected to commence before the wind transaction completes, which is due by the end of March. The remaining proceeds will be used to reduce net debt. 

A £200m share buyback (pumping up the EPS for the Directors' bonuses, no doubt) and a £435m reduction in debt.