YOUR Preparations for Brexit

[200p]

Hard Brexit? Soft Brexit? OR in the middle?

We are about to go through a big change (or maybe it won't be a big change). In any change, one should be mentally and physically prepared to adapt. Survival and being able to prosper is the objective. I am creating this thread to put some ideas out there, so all of us can be able to take opportunities when they come so we can "be alright", in the end. Don't assume someone else is going to do it for you.

It's like poker, you might get a good hand, or a bad hand, you have to be prepared and make the most of the hand, or even know when to fold.

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We don't know if this is going to be a hard or soft Brexit. I think that the powers that be, are allowing Brexit (Like Trump winning the Presidency) to happen due to these reasons

*It will allow the global economy to go forward, and may provide a catalyst for EU reforms. The BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) story has run it's course, it's dead in the water.

*It will allow Interest rates to go slowly back to normal levels, saving the financial system. 9 years at zero rates is not the preferred option. At normal interest rates (4 to 7%) we can be prepared for the next financial crisis, as it will be inevitable as the night follows day.

*When interest rates are back to normal. It will allow fiat to continue it's purpose. Gold and Bitcoin do not pay interest, and I think Central Banks probably do not want to use Bitcoin because they lose control of the monopoly of the power of money. It will be very difficult to maintain an inflation rate of 2% This is probably why Bitcoin fell, when the FED brought rates up to 1% With Trump at the helm, the FED can bring rates back to "normal" levels without crashing the stock market or crashing other asset prices.

 

We've never been here before, but what can we compare this to?

A divorce. With this in mind, the risk is of a messy divorce. We might be lucky and it is amicable. But like with real divorce, both sides do not want to lose face, even if there is a "script" to follow. We will see the true colours of the EU administration come to the fore. Like in a real divorce we may want to have another partner lined up - maybe we will need to form close ties with the US, China, Australia, New Zealand or even Russia etc, to improve our poker hand. We will need to accept we can't have our cake and eat it. Or if we do go it alone, but this is where YOUR preparation is needed. If we go it alone for a hard Brexit, we better

*Become more independent and self sufficient. Imports might become more expensive. If you enjoy cheap holidays in the EU, or cheap wine, luxury German cars, or food from the EU this maybe become more difficult. If you enjoy this stuff now, like a divorce, you'll need to pack your suitcase full of this stuff to take with you, as the next destination these things maybe more difficult to obtain in the short term.

*There is other stuff like EU funding into certain UK industries - you will need to find out if you are affected and make the necessary preparations. Start NOW.

*The UK government and the Royal Family will play a bigger role in the administration of the UK. We must accept that this is what Sovereignty is all about. It is in our interests to make sure Brexit works out for everyone in the UK. I expect an election to be called very soon, and Theresa should win it.

Will there be a second Referendum? Will Brexit Happen?

Of course there is still a chance, like in poker, allow for all probabilities. We are not privy to the discussions behind closed doors. But it will not harm anyone to make preparations (like any good tinfoil hatter)

Lastly, to reiterate - Change can present opportunity, but you must be prepared for it and be prepared to adapt.

[200p]

And to add, a time for coming together.

Are there friends or family or elderly relatives that might be quietly concerned over Brexit? Do you work or have friends with EU nationals that are not sure if they want to stay in the UK? They may not have the luxury or the interest about reading the macro picture, and they could be suffering from depression or anxiety over this possible big change. People may need that contact and show we are there for each other - even if we could be running along a script. It might be even easier to believe this is all scripted.

[200p]

Profound economic change is usually the result of a convulsive shock, of which Brexit is clearly one. The referendum should lead to a period of national introspection and a willingness to address the fundamental vulnerabilities of the economy.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/16/let-the-pound-fall-and-the-economy-rise

[stormymonday_2011]

Where do I find cheap EU wine ?

Most European wines retailed in the UK have been more expensive than their southern hemisphere or new world counterparts for years which is why many Brits already drink the latter. Unless you have a taste and the money for vintage champagne, top of the range burgundy or premier cru claret I doubt this is going to be a big issue. 

The same thing applies to food. EU countries sell us food they don't give it to us.  Moreover agricultural tariffs mean it trades at an advantage against produce from the rest of the globe. It may  now have to compete on a more level playing field with imports from elsewhere on the planet which already exist on supermarket shelves for those who care to look.

As for EU citizens living in the UK or Brits living abroad like most children in a divorce they will have to decide with which partner they want to live. The UK unlike some European countries is fairly relaxed about dual citizenship.

https://www.gov.uk/dual-citizenship

I don't think that is going to change. 

[Kurt Barlow]

Buy British wherever possible to support our economy.

This is a communal preparation of mutual benefit to everyone.

[dgul]

1 hour ago, 200p said:

 

We've never been here before, but what can we compare this to?

A divorce.

I don't like this analogy.  It trivialises it.  It comes with this assumption along the lines of 'of course they'll be cross -- they were happy and then she just up and left'.

It's beginning to look more like leaving a cult.  Where the cult leaders have to enforce a hard-line, to keep the others in.

Why shouldn't it be an easy process?  Why wouldn't the democratic EU just say 'sure leave.  You'll be fine.  Just remember that you don't get special dispensation if you want to join again -- same rules for everyone!'

Anyway, I'm just ignoring Brexit.  There might be some opportunities that arise from it, but it's too early to say atm.

[stormymonday_2011]

2 minutes ago, Kurt Barlow said:

Buy British wherever possible to support our economy.

This is a communal preparation of mutual benefit to everyone.

At the moment goods often bear the generic brand Made in the EU even if in the case of something's like beer it is actually brewed under license in the UK. One change that should occur is to make the sourcing if products in the UK clear so people like Cadbury's will have to fess up whether their horrible products are actually made here or in Poland. It is going to make it slightly harder  for brands to trade  under the pretext they come from one place and culture when in fact they are made in another.

[spyguy]

Quicky reg office wedding to italian partner,just in case.

[Kurt Barlow]

4 minutes ago, stormymonday_2011 said:

At the moment goods often bear the generic brand Made in the EU even if in the case of something's like beer it is actually brewed under license in the UK. One change that should occur is to make the sourcing if products in the UK clear so people like Cadbury's will have to fess up whether their horrible products are actually made here or in Poland. It is going to make it slightly harder  for brands to trade  under the pretext they come from one place and culture when in fact they are made in another.

You can only do your best. As for beer if it is made here, which in most cases it is,  it is supporting the economy.

I think the Govt should revert back to a policy that all government vehicles are sourced from UK manufactured models unless there is an exceptional reason. I'm fed up with seeing Coppers poncing around in BMW's, Audi's, Volvo's, Skodas  etc when they could be in Jaguars, Landrovers, Avenisis, Qashqai, Astras, Auris  etc.

One thing to watch out for is the Supermarkets labelling products to look very British or packing foreign stuff in UK Plants. In Tescos the other day I picked up a pack of Sea Bass which had a UK product code on it. Looked on the back and it said Farmed Bass from Turkey. That went back on the shelf.

[200p]

A new story for the global economy to digest:

GDP wise. The EU components are slipping right now. The UK and Germany are treading water.

France is teetering on the edge of a decline. Spain, Italy, Greece are in decline well before Brexit. China ad the US are strong. I believe these charts go up to 2015.

Source http://www.tradingeconomics.com/

[JoeDavola]

Is there any unbiased sources that spell out how Northern Ireland is likely to fare? How much of NI was held up by EU funding which will now disappear?

 

[SpectrumFX]

40 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Is there any unbiased sources that spell out how Northern Ireland is likely to fare? How much of NI was held up by EU funding which will now disappear?

 

Probably not. 

I'm in Wales, and spent about a decade working on applying for and spending EU money as a full time job. Every news article i ever saw on it was a misinformed crock of shit.

[OnionTerror]

51 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Is there any unbiased sources that spell out how Northern Ireland is likely to fare? How much of NI was held up by EU funding which will now disappear?

 

There is an argument that a customs border could sit in the Irish Sea.

http://www.irishnews.com/news/brexit/2017/01/18/news/brexit-hard-border-could-be-across-irish-sea-890651/

[Bossybabe]

I'm looking at houses for sale on the Moray Firth Coast...

[winkie]

No more popping over to buy a few wines or beers, even cheesy food might have to be declared......up for a visa to visit you friends for a few weeks, tariffs on cheap flights, limit on currency in or out?????.....who knows, lets all stay at home and grow your own......protect yourself, learn a language.

[council dweller]

Well as I said during the referendum ....don`t buy German or French cars. If anything goes wrong you can`t get the parts !

I suppose remainer`s  will feel sorry for me because I`m a Turkey that voted for Christmas.

....but riding a Japanese motorbike,  driving a Jap car, buying food at Aldi are nothing new for me.

Spose I`m like one of those blacks in 30`s America who were left untouched by the depression.

[raindog]

Best sausages i had in years were Brazilian, the chap selling them had to stop selling them a couple of years ago as they didn't have the correct EU certification or whatever.

Pure meat they were, tasty as hell and reasonably priced too.

Hope to see them in stock soon next time i come back to the UK.  :-)

[Sledgehead]

8 hours ago, 200p said:

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YOUR preparation for Brexit

 

Bunting : red, white, blue, ~2000 m

Trestle Tables : 20

Booze : 80 bottles fizz, 3 Kegs beer, 20 Bottles Pimms

Food : TBD

Speech : yet to write

[Guest TheBlueCat]

2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Is there any unbiased sources that spell out how Northern Ireland is likely to fare? How much of NI was held up by EU funding which will now disappear?

 

I think it is reasonable to assume that, at least to begin with, approximately the same amount of funding will go to NI just direct from the UK treasury rather than via Brussels. I think the government already said as much. I'm reading that Theresa May is worried about the prospect of a united Ireland so it's highly unlikely she's going to want to do anything that would make that more likely (e.g. cut UK funding to NI) and, more pragmatically, it's such a small sum of money relative to other expenditure she's not going to cause herself a massive political headache for such a tiny saving.

[Guest TheBlueCat]

My preparation: sell my remaining Euros, I don't think it's going to go well for the currency over the next few years.

[stormymonday_2011]

2 hours ago, council dweller said:

Well as I said during the referendum ....don`t buy German or French cars. If anything goes wrong you can`t get the parts !

I suppose remainer`s  will feel sorry for me because I`m a Turkey that voted for Christmas.

....but riding a Japanese motorbike,  driving a Jap car, buying food at Aldi are nothing new for me.

Spose I`m like one of those blacks in 30`s America who were left untouched by the depression.

I expect most people will simply go with the flow. If European goods get expensive or hard to obtain then people will buy whatever alternative is available . If travel to Europe becomes too difficult or costly they will simply go elsewhere if possible. Politicians and pundits on both sides of the Brexit debate seem to spend all their time talking the language of conflict that if one wins the other loses or vice versa.  The reality of commercial exchange is far more complex. Both sides could end up with a reasonable set of arrangements if they are pragmatic or they could both end up losers if they are not. 

 

[Sledgehead]

1 hour ago, raindog said:

Best sausages i had in years were Brazilian, the chap ...

Pure meat ...  tasty as hell and reasonably priced too.

Hope to see them in stock soon next time i come back to the UK.  :-)

Well, they say everybody wants something different from Brexit ....

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

1 hour ago, Sledgehead said:

Bunting : red, white, blue, ~2000 m

Trestle Tables : 20

Booze : 80 bottles fizz, 3 Kegs beer, 20 Bottles Pimms

Food : TBD

Speech : yet to write

There could be competition to invent a new dish like at the Coronation.

[happy_renting]

I am stacking ammo and powdered milk.

If any babies come crawling after my milk, I'll shoot 'em.

[Sledgehead]

43 minutes ago, 24 year mortgage 8itch said:

There could be competition to invent a new dish like at the Coronation.

Full English Brexit

(esp if Union breaks up)