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Everything posted by JoeDavola

  1. Agree with the above - I think prices are ridiculous but also agree the situation isn't exactly the same as 2007. I think effect of the massive shortage of properties coming on the market can't be underestimated as well. I imgaine anything half decent that comes on (i.e. something that isn't small and/or in a terrible state of repair) has an incredible amount of pent-up demand. I don't know what these prices and the trajectory they're on mean for the young and those on low wages - probably being renters for life. I also suspec the housing 'ladder' is no longer as common as once was - most of the folk I know in their late 30's who bought their 'starter' home during the crash years have no intention of moving for the forseeable as they don't want to take on massive extra debt for slightly more room. The fact that houses didn't come on in any great numbers over the summer period leads me to suspect that transaction volumes will remain low for the forseeable which will help push prices up perhaps even more.
  2. What thread are you referring to can you post a link please?
  3. Another price level crossed...the £400K semi: https://www.propertypal.com/11-st-johns-park-rosetta-belfast/703393
  4. Yes someone I know has referred to the mid-upper end of the housing market as an 'equity swapping' market - i.e. people basically swapping houses with each other.
  5. To clarify I mean I have a low stress low hours enjoyable job that feels like semi-retirement compared to the stress I've experienced in the past, and I don't want to feel I need to go back to the high-stress long hours life just to pay for a roof over my head.
  6. Oh my. Well done you. Doubling your money in 8 years. You've played it well. The sums of money that are being made and lost here based on when you happened to buy a house are life changing i.e. being able to retire at 50 vs working till you die. I'm not going to retire young, but I also don't want to slave 40-60 hours a week so i won't be buying into this market any more than I need to. It's getting to the point where maxxing out my S&S ISA every year and ending up a renter with 300K+ in shares in a tax free wrapper might actually be a wiser thing than buying a house in Belfast.
  7. I'm still quite shocked at how spectacularly wrong I was when I assumed that the lockdown of the economy would put a brake on HPI or might even cause a drop in house prices. Anedotally, most of my peers bought 5-8 years ago and none of them have moved from their first house and have no plans on moving they think the market is insane and don't want to take on an extra 100K debt as they approach 40 for a little bit of extra room. This trend may well continue given the smaller number of transactions actually happening, but if it does you've got a housing market that fewer and fewer of the population can actually buy into. And as I mentioned above the idea of a housing 'ladder' is now gone.
  8. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57648935
  9. Some friends sale agreed their house (owned outright) about 6 months ago for a decent profit on what they paid 6 years back but still haven't sold and moved because there's nothing on the market that represents decent value without adding tens of thousands of extra debt to get something basically the same/inferior to what they have. It's quite something to see someone with tons of equity in the market effecively still priced out from a mixture of ridiculous asking prices and absolute dross that's falling to bits but still asking big prices.
  10. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/13/top-bank-of-england-economist-warns-of-1970s-style-price-inflation
  11. I'd assume what's being compared there are the 3 most expesive areas of NI - Belfast still seems more expensive than most parts of NI IMO. Your point about the opportunity cost of paying rent every year is perfectly valid. Prices would have to fall faster than the money you're blowing on rent. The other factor I guess is that many houses on sale are fixer-uppers, and I'm hearing a few reports of people being surprised at how high the quotes are from tradesmen to get work done these days.
  12. Yes quite possibly. The only example I can think of is my parents old house. Rateable value 160K, peaked at 320K, sold about 7 years ago for 170K and only had one offer at that, now would be worth about 270K if similar houses listed recently are anything to go by. I have no faith any more that prices will crash. Too many government schemes to prop up the bubble. Help to buy seems tame now compared to government-guaranteed 5% mortgages. They've made it quite clear they'll throw everything at keeping this inflating.
  13. If this keeps going some of these wee terraced houses are gonna end up at double the rateable value: https://www.propertypal.com/22-eastleigh-dale-ballyhackamore-belfast/691302
  14. I remain skeptical that wages will inflate much, especially in industries where there isn't lots of opportunities to 'jump jobs' frequently for pay-rises like there is in IT for example. If you're an IT bod who is ambitious and can hop jobs between these various American companies that are setting up in NI then yes you may well have very large pay increases over the coming decade. I guess it will hinge on what kind of pay rises the public sector gets since so much of NI is public sector? I think current prices are utterly ridiculous especially in Belfast but over the next 10 years it's a better inflation hedge than stirling that's for sure. I also don't believe that IR's will ever rise in any meaningful way.
  15. Apologies, wrong link: https://www.propertypal.com/25-09-obel-62-donegall-quay-belfast/689834
  16. https://www.propertypal.com/25-09-obel-62-donegall-quay-belfast/689834/photo-17 ....£400K for a flat in the Obel tower, anyone?
  17. My family are in East Belfast which has been going mental price wise over the past year. Couple of odd things happened recently - a house that went on for about £160K and sold within the week, mysteriously came on the market again and hasn't sold several weeks on - I'd have thought buyers would have been fighting over it even though it needs a serious facelift. Another house that sold quickly for 200K seems to have had the sale fallen through, then got a new roof put on it (failed the survey?), and is back on a couple weeks back - be interesting to see how fast it sells. A few semi's coming up near my mate in Organgefield east belfast a popular area which are taking slightly longer to sell than expected. Having said that I don't see this as indicitive of a market downturn - I fully expect the market to go absolutely crazy over the summer as the lockdown ends and buyers and sellers come out in larger numbers than ever. I know someone viewed this place and it was in a terrible state apparently - I mean it doesn't look great to me from the photos but it looked even worse in person and even smelled bad ect...but it sold much to my surprise. Doesn't look like £265K worth to me. https://www.propertypal.com/61-donovan-parade-knights-green-castlereagh-belfast/681827
  18. Oh and check out this beauty from the BT9 rental market - have a poo in the bedroom whilst gazing out the front window over University Street: https://www.propertypal.com/flat-1-12-university-street-belfast/688410/slideshow/photo-5
  19. Careful what ya wish for....check back to this topic in another month when prices are up another 5% Well as we've seen the government can shut down a big chunk of the economy and cause a second boom in 15 years. And we've also seen that the government will throw everything they can at the boom and indeed are taking steps to drive it even further (lower deposit mortgages) - so it'll need to be some event outside of the government that puts a stop on things. All I do know is that anyone who did buy since the last crash, many of whom are in what would have been 'starter' homes for 10 years and counting and would now be moving 'up the ladder', want nothing to do with this market and have no plans on moving.
  20. Or perhaps the best part of 200K to live in what looks like an ex-council terrace house in Sydenham East Belfast: https://www.propertypal.com/88-brandon-parade-belfast/688446/photo-5
  21. Imagine my surprise at people not wanting to spend 300K to live in an attic during a lockdown.
  22. I think we need a new topic entitled "feels like 2005 all over again"....270K to live in a converted roofspace in BT9 anyone? https://www.propertypal.com/4-atelier-house-atelier-house-sans-souci-malone-road-belfast/687933/photo-4
  23. I know quite a few people well into their 30's and getting toward 40 who never bought a house, and at these prices I think they'll be renters for life.
  24. In addition, it would seem to be that if the average couple say 30 years old is paying that for a very normal house that would often be considered a starter home or one rung up at most, the concept of a 'housing ladder' is gone unless we have major wage inflation over the coming 10 or 20 years.
  25. If you take 20 years then @ 2% on a £180K mortgage (20% depost on a £200K house - £200K not buying you too much these days) that's £910 a month according to an online calculator. Add rates, upkeep ect...there must be quite a few couples where one wage basically all goes on paying for and maintaining the house? Again I might just be a bit out of touch with the amount of money the average couple can throw at their house every month. Most single people aren't really in a position to buy one of these £200K houses that's for sure.
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