pig Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said: See upthread. Posters saying staying in the CM+SM has the most votes (green + Orange). But if we are adding colours then leave has the most votes (Orange + yellow + blue). Doesn’t Mays deal - specifically her red lines - lead to Canada on the Brexit Chart ? Edited April 14, 2019 by pig Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, pig said: Doesn’t Mays deal - specifically her red lines - lead to Canada on the Brexit Chart ? Not necessarily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pig Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 56 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said: Yes that’s true. so if we are looking at: 24% no deal 25% WA / CM2.0 33% remain which one? 8th April poll of polls (same website) 54% Remain 46% Leave Which one ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pig Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 1 minute ago, GrizzlyDave said: Not necessarily. ? Thats looking like almost as far as you can get from orange (Norway) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 (edited) 14 minutes ago, pig said: ? Thats looking like almost as far as you can get from orange (Norway) Orange isn’t Norway. Norway is outside the CU. Barnier; “I have said many times before that we can be more — much more —ambitious in our future relationship with the U.K. The Political Declaration provides for a range of outcomes including a customs union. We are ready to make this clear if it helps and this work can be done extremely quickly,”. https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-ready-to-negotiate-customs-union-with-uk-michel-barnier-brexit-deal-agreement/ Edited April 14, 2019 by GrizzlyDave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 23 minutes ago, pig said: 8th April poll of polls (same website) 54% Remain 46% Leave Which one ? On that poll; remain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MARTINX9 Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 33 minutes ago, pig said: 8th April poll of polls (same website) 54% Remain 46% Leave Which one ? I remember the final two polls issued on 23 June 2016 - referendum day. Populus Remain 55 Leave 45 You gov Remain 52 Leave 48! Yes - the pollsters got that right. Just like most predicted a May majority of over 100 and a Clinton landslide. Of course in just the last week - as European election campaigning has just started - Tory and Labour support has fallen by 15 per cent between them. And that is just in one week! So polling can of course be volatile as events change. In summer 2015 remain was ahead on one poll by 44%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 2 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said: If Remain wins in a ranked vote, until the end of time it will be seen as remain gaming the numbers. That chart suggests that the median vote by first preference would land in EFTA, though like many such surveys it is confusingly done because it is comparing Brexit end states (WTO, EFTA, EU) with a transitional arrangement (May's withdrawal agreement). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 1 minute ago, MARTINX9 said: I remember the final two polls issued on 23 June 2016 - referendum day. Populus Remain 55 Leave 45 You gov Remain 52 Leave 48! Yes - the pollsters got that right. Just like most predicted a May majority of over 100 and a Clinton landslide. Of course in just the last week - as European election campaigning has just started - Tory and Labour support has fallen by 15 per cent between them. And that is just in one week! So polling can of course be volatile as events change. In summer 2015 remain was ahead on one poll by 44%. If you look at the polls in the weeks before the referendum, nobody could say Remain were clear favourites. It's a myth that the polling was inaccurate based on only taking the final polls. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 4 hours ago, thecrashingisles said: Yes, it's almost like they've got cold feet and want to be given a face saving way out without consequences or having to admit they might have made the wrong call. How can you make the wrong call about something that has yet to happen? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 23 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said: First they came for the veggie burgers. Who are they. British butchers were at the forefront of the campaign aguing against co-opting of meaty terms by the veggies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 23 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said: First they came for the veggie burgers. Who are they. British butchers were at the forefront of the campaign aguing against co-opting of meaty terms by the veggies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Just now, crouch said: How can you make the wrong call about something that has yet to happen? The fact that you perceive it as something yet to happen is very revealing. What do you expect to happen that will change the trajectory from the one we're clearly on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Just now, thecrashingisles said: The fact that you perceive it as something yet to happen is very revealing. What do you expect to happen that will change the trajectory from the one we're clearly on? As we have not left how can you assess what leaving the EU means? How can I see into what will happen over the next forty years? If I could I wouldn't be typing this; I'd be sitting on the terrace of my villa on Lake Como perusing the dinner menu. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 1 hour ago, onlooker said: Quite. There are really just 3 options: 1) Remaining 2) Being legally out of the EU but taking orders from Brussels, without much or any say in how those orders are determined, and almost certainly still making a hefty financial contribution to the EU. 3) Being out, and able to determine our future ourselves Couched in those terms, people's choices may have been different. 3 Is a fantasy, economic reality means we will end up aligning ourselves with the EU. Exercising our sovereign right to decide to take orders from the EU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: Who are they. British butchers were at the forefront of the campaign aguing against co-opting of meaty terms by the veggies. They = anyone bigoted enough to use government to repress plain language and free speech. Are you seriously defending this? Don’t you find it all a bit Orwellian? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, thecrashingisles said: Except 3) doesn't reflect reality either. We're constrained by the Good Friday Agreement and the structure of our economy and society, so even if we get full legal autonomy, it won't be able to take us very far. A very interesting, revealing and IMV correct comment. So, after 45 years in the EU we are still constrained by the structure of our economy and society. But this must apply to all the other members of the EU, which means, either that the EU has not been very successful at "ever closer union", or it may not be possible anyway in which case why is it the ultimate objective of the EU? Edited April 14, 2019 by crouch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 1 minute ago, crouch said: A very interesting, revealing and IMV correct comment. So, after 45 years in the EU we are still constrained by the structure of our economy and society. But this must apply to all the other members of the EU, which means, either that the EU has not be very successful at "ever closer union", or it may not be possible anyway in which case why is it the ultimate objective of the EU? You've misinterpreted what I wrote. When I say constrained, I mean that we are hardwired economically into Europe. There is integration at the level of governments, but there is also integration at the level of day-to-day life. The latter cannot be undone without a cost that people are not willing to bear. The only way to do it would be with a very authoritarian government that didn't have to worry about elections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 2 hours ago, thecrashingisles said: Except 3) doesn't reflect reality either. We're constrained by the Good Friday Agreement and the structure of our economy and society, so even if we get full legal autonomy, it won't be able to take us very far. That is the spirit, such an optimistic perspective. Where there is a will there is a way, maybe some of those constraints will have to change to achieve the greater good. You never answered my earlier question if you got anything wrong regarding the GFC? Maybe you views on Brexit may not be as on the mark as you posting confidence indicates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Just now, Confounded said: That is the spirit, such an optimistic perspective. Where there is a will there is a way, maybe some of those constraints will have to change to achieve the greater good. You never answered my earlier question if you got anything wrong regarding the GFC? Maybe you views on Brexit may not be as on the mark as you posting confidence indicates. The two things are not remotely comparable. Regarding changing constraints - yes, the UK could break up, and probably will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 22 hours ago, highYield said: The prince of unicorns. To do so would destroy the Conservative party. Which is, of course, why they cannot do it. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast. If May cannot get her deal through what is the alternative. The mytical no deal would end in even more humiliation being heaped on us and destroy also destroy the Conservative party. On the other hand after revoking A50 they could go into the GE as the Brexit party, if that's what they believe the country still wants. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: If May cannot get her deal through what is the alternative. The mytical no deal would end in even more humiliation being heaped on us and destroy also destroy the Conservative party. On the other hand after revoking A50 they could go into the GE as the Brexit party, if that's what they believe the country still wants. Having been a life long Conservative voter (and member) I now say without any hesitation, bring it on. Cameron closed the lid on the corpse of the Conservative party and May is busy nailing it shut. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: Having been a life long Conservative voter (and member) I now say without any hesitation, bring it on. Cameron closed the lid on the corpse of the Conservative party and May is busy nailing it shut. The Conservative party is terminal now, three parliaments of ignoring the housing prospects of the under 50s in their southern English heartlands will see to that. At some point in the 2020s it will be like Labour in Scotland in 2015, overnight a region where they expected to automatically pick up 50 MPs every general election will be gone and with it the prospect of there ever again being a Conservative majority government. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 29 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said: You've misinterpreted what I wrote. When I say constrained, I mean that we are hardwired economically into Europe. There is integration at the level of governments, but there is also integration at the level of day-to-day life. The latter cannot be undone without a cost that people are not willing to bear. The only way to do it would be with a very authoritarian government that didn't have to worry about elections. How do you know that the statement in bold is true? Where is your evidence? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 18 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: Having been a life long Conservative voter (and member) I now say without any hesitation, bring it on. Cameron closed the lid on the corpse of the Conservative party and May is busy nailing it shut. Amen to that. Did you vote Tory in 2017? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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