Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[HairyOb1]

7 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

So I have cheered you up and helped you learn a new word. Well done me.

You've cheered me up by being a cockjockey, nothing else.
 

[HairyOb1]

2 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

All seems to hang on a transitional arrangement. The Norway option has been buttered up to Joe public as a temporary arrangement. Assuming it happens, seems easier to argue to maintain it once in it?

I am led to believe May is going to signal an intention to invoke Article 127 in her big speech soon (leaving the EEA, so not being the Norwegian model).

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

No. You are confusing economic growth and stable population -No I am not.

The native UK population is achieving the 2.1 kids/family required for stable population. - It isn't, latest figures state 1.83

The UK is not Germany or Italy - we've always had a more Scandi birth rate - Eh?

The UK since ~2002 is going to be a textbook example of why growth in population + benefits  != economic growth - But the figures say the opposite

Have a look at the GDP./head  figures. The official ones show its fallen over the last 15 years.- Wrong again (https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita)

Put the unreported 4m into those figures and the GDP/head are even worse. - Again, wrong...

 

[moneyfornothing]

31 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls. Gather round your wireless for the first exciting installment of...

{{ cue Land of Hope & Glory played by Welsh miners band }}

David Davis' Dangerous Brexit Delusions

The date, February 4th, 2016 - comfortably far away from any chance of Britain voting to leave the EU. The place? A podium at the Institute for Chartered Engineers.

http://www.daviddavismp.com/david-davis-speech-on-brexit-at-the-institute-of-chartered-engineers/

"We are too valuable a market for Europe to shut off. Within minutes of a vote for Brexit the CEO’s of Mercedes, BMW, VW and Audi will be knocking down Chancellor Merkel’s door demanding that there be no barriers to German access to the British market."

Fast forward through the Brexit wormhole and witness the reality of the present situation. Not only is Chancellor Merkel's door still full intact. In September 2017, the CEOs of German automakers say:

http://news.sky.com/story/germany-plans-for-worst-case-scenario-brexit-11032175

"Matthias Wissmann, head of the German Automotive Association, said contingency plans were being formed to deal with a possible failure of Brexit negotiations in the next 18 months."

"Britain is very important for us, but the EU27 is even more important for us, as a market and as a political concept...
So we do the utmost to support anyone who keeps Britain as close as possible to the EU.

"But if you ask me for priorities: keeping the EU27 together is even more important than to keep Britain nearby, so let the British government be convinced that they have to build a bridge."

He said that a cliff-edge Brexit would "change everything", including German industrial investment in the UK.

"If we will fall down the cliff edge, it would be very critical for all sides, also damage part of our concepts in Britain and elsewhere, but to be clear, the higher price would be paid by the British."

Stay tuned for the next exciting episode of David Davis' Dangerous Brexit Delusions!

Remainers change their tunes as well .. one moment it was the Remainer in Chief promising that Leave would mean 'Leaving' the single market , now remoaners insist that leave means 'not leaving' anything

http://www.politico.eu/article/david-cameron-bbc-andrew-marr-ill-pull-uk-out-of-the-single-market-after-brexit-eu-referendum-vote-june-23-consequences-news/

As far as Mercedes is concerned, their loss will be Nissans gain .. dont see why that should influence even aniota of David Davis negotiating position .. 

For some reason remoaners seem to think the default position should be us begging Mercedes to please sell us their cars as we are keen for them to profit .. access to the UK market apparently shouldnt cost anything and has no price attached ..

 

[HairyOb1]

One thing that makes me laugh, is that people are saying that Norways money paid into the EU pot is 'modest', and far less than us.  Per capita, they pay $6 less than us.  They have utterly no control over regulations, or edicts, laws, have to conform to every trade standard, have enshrined every EU regulation and law onto their statute books and have no say into the running of the EU.

If anything, it is the worst deal possible.

 

Anyway, it's moot, as reports last night were that May was triggering Article 127 which ensures we leave the EEA too.

[Futuroid]

3 minutes ago, moneyfornothing said:

Remainers change their tunes as well .. one moment it was the Remainer in Chief promising that Leave would mean 'Leaving' the single market , now remoaners insist that leave means 'not leaving' anything

http://www.politico.eu/article/david-cameron-bbc-andrew-marr-ill-pull-uk-out-of-the-single-market-after-brexit-eu-referendum-vote-june-23-consequences-news/

As far as Mercedes is concerned, their loss will be Nissans gain .. dont see why that should influence even aniota of David Davis negotiating position .. 

For some reason remoaners seem to think the default position should be us begging Mercedes to please sell us their cars as we are keen for them to profit .. access to the UK market apparently shouldnt cost anything and has no price attached ..

 

David Cameron wasn't for Brexit, so why would be the one to define what shape it should take. Surely that was something that those in favour of it, those pushing it should have done BEFORE the vote?

As for Nissan's gains. Those gains might well be in Europe, when they shut down and leave the UK as well (as they would under a "hard Brexit" scenario). Especially when you consider Nissan are part of the Renault group so they have a range of EU plants to choose from in order to manufacture their cars!

 

[OnionTerror]

13 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

One thing that makes me laugh, is that people are saying that Norways money paid into the EU pot is 'modest', and far less than us.  Per capita, they pay $6 less than us.  They have utterly no control over regulations, or edicts, laws, have to conform to every trade standard, have enshrined every EU regulation and law onto their statute books and have no say into the running of the EU.

If anything, it is the worst deal possible.

 

Anyway, it's moot, as reports last night were that May was triggering Article 127 which ensures we leave the EEA too.

Utterly wrong.....Norway has more control and more of a say over global rules, and hence single market rules that we have ever had being inside the EU...

....The worst possible scenario is dropping out with nothing...Moreover, what kind of deal are you expecting us to do within the next ten months or so?

Edited September 13, 2017 by Dave Beans

[Futuroid]

3 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

One thing that makes me laugh, is that people are saying that Norways money paid into the EU pot is 'modest', and far less than us.  Per capita, they pay $6 less than us.  They have utterly no control over regulations, or edicts, laws, have to conform to every trade standard, have enshrined every EU regulation and law onto their statute books and have no say into the running of the EU.

If anything, it is the worst deal possible.

Yup, Farage was touting a Norway-style deal earlier this year IIRC. All of the costs, none of the control and actually, none of the soverignty either! (since you have to agree to abide by ECJ decisions). 

 

 

We can't actually implement hard brexit (ports not ready, companies not ready) so the closer to March 2019 we get, the crapper our deal will be because the EU knows we are desperate. (that smell of desperation that other countries - like the USA - can smell it too).

[pig]

45 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls. Gather round your wireless for the first exciting installment of...

{{ cue Land of Hope & Glory played by Welsh miners band }}

David Davis' Dangerous Brexit Delusions

The date, February 4th, 2016 - comfortably far away from any chance of Britain voting to leave the EU. The place? A podium at the Institute for Chartered Engineers.

http://www.daviddavismp.com/david-davis-speech-on-brexit-at-the-institute-of-chartered-engineers/

"We are too valuable a market for Europe to shut off. Within minutes of a vote for Brexit the CEO’s of Mercedes, BMW, VW and Audi will be knocking down Chancellor Merkel’s door demanding that there be no barriers to German access to the British market."

Fast forward through the Brexit wormhole and witness the reality of the present situation. Not only is Chancellor Merkel's door still full intact. In September 2017, the CEOs of German automakers say:

http://news.sky.com/story/germany-plans-for-worst-case-scenario-brexit-11032175

"Matthias Wissmann, head of the German Automotive Association, said contingency plans were being formed to deal with a possible failure of Brexit negotiations in the next 18 months."

"Britain is very important for us, but the EU27 is even more important for us, as a market and as a political concept...
So we do the utmost to support anyone who keeps Britain as close as possible to the EU.

"But if you ask me for priorities: keeping the EU27 together is even more important than to keep Britain nearby, so let the British government be convinced that they have to build a bridge."

He said that a cliff-edge Brexit would "change everything", including German industrial investment in the UK.

"If we will fall down the cliff edge, it would be very critical for all sides, also damage part of our concepts in Britain and elsewhere, but to be clear, the higher price would be paid by the British."

Stay tuned for the next exciting episode of David Davis' Dangerous Brexit Delusions!

Was is a delusion though or simply a lie ?

To a. certain extent there's no point blaming politicians for lying when it's clearly what voters want to hear and indulge in themselves.

[HairyOb1]

4 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Utterly wrong.....

....The worst possible scenario is dropping out with nothing...Moreover, what kind of deal are you expecting us to do within the next ten months or so?

A matter of opinion - I think paying $6 per head less, having no control, having to accept FOM and all of the regulations, laws is tantamount to the worst deal.  It's what we have now, with slightly less money paid, and absolutely the same conditions, but no say in the future.  It's insanity to suggest this is a good deal.  

I am a passionate remainer, but if this was the deal, I would think most would be angered by it.

Anyway, it is moot, as I said, I am led to believe May will make this clear in her speech later this month.

[OnionTerror]

Edited September 13, 2017 by Dave Beans

[moneyfornothing]

8 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

A matter of opinion - I think paying $6 per head less, having no control, having to accept FOM and all of the regulations, laws is tantamount to the worst deal.  It's what we have now, with slightly less money paid, and absolutely the same conditions, but no say in the future.  It's insanity to suggest this is a good deal.  

I am a passionate remainer, but if this was the deal, I would think most would be angered by it.

Anyway, it is moot, as I said, I am led to believe May will make this clear in her speech later this month.

On that we can agree .. 

[GrizzlyDave]

29 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

I am led to believe May is going to signal an intention to invoke Article 127 in her big speech soon (leaving the EEA, so not being the Norwegian model).

 

Has she got a mandate for this or does parliament need to endorse it?

[moneyfornothing]

18 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Yup, Farage was touting a Norway-style deal earlier this year IIRC. All of the costs, none of the control and actually, none of the soverignty either! (since you have to agree to abide by ECJ decisions). 

 

 

We can't actually implement hard brexit (ports not ready, companies not ready) so the closer to March 2019 we get, the crapper our deal will be because the EU knows we are desperate. (that smell of desperation that other countries - like the USA - can smell it too).

And why would we be desperate ? Why wouldnt the EU get desperate .. ?

[GrizzlyDave]

36 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

One thing that makes me laugh, is that people are saying that Norways money paid into the EU pot is 'modest', and far less than us.  Per capita, they pay $6 less than us.  They have utterly no control over regulations, or edicts, laws, have to conform to every trade standard, have enshrined every EU regulation and law onto their statute books and have no say into the running of the EU.

If anything, it is the worst deal possible.

 

Anyway, it's moot, as reports last night were that May was triggering Article 127 which ensures we leave the EEA too.

They voluntarily contribute more than the minimum to invest into broader programs.

Edited September 13, 2017 by GrizzlyDave

[suresh786]

What happened to this thread, huge messages in short time, getting hot

[HairyOb1]

20 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

They voluntarily contribute more than the minimum to invest into broader programs.

Not anything I can read Dave - They do pay to be in Erasmus, and other EU programs, but it's not voluntarily, it has to, to take part in the program.

[spyguy]

55 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

I am led to believe May is going to signal an intention to invoke Article 127 in her big speech soon (leaving the EEA, so not being the Norwegian model).

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita-ppp

2006 - 38k/head.

2016 - 38k/head.

~30% of inflation since then and an extra ~4m heads, which the stats do not account for.

Once you start putting the correct number of people into that calculation, the figures are dire.

 

[spyguy]

47 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Utterly wrong.....Norway has more control and more of a say over global rules, and hence single market rules that we have ever had being inside the EU...

....The worst possible scenario is dropping out with nothing...Moreover, what kind of deal are you expecting us to do within the next ten months or so?

AFAIK Norway has never asserted any power or influence over the EU.

At the mo, its happy with access to Europe and being asked to attend the meetings. building up its soft power.

I dont think the Norgies are doing anything dodgy. Just its going well - or has for them - and they are happy to play the long game and pay to play.

[HairyOb1]

27 minutes ago, moneyfornothing said:

And why would we be desperate ? Why wouldnt the EU get desperate .. ?

I think we all know that the 27 is more important than the 1 - We're the ones who need to resolve our issues, they don't care if we drop out with nothing.

People have to understand, we're not getting as good deal out of this, we can't, as we can't be seen to be getting a better deal out than in.

[GrizzlyDave]

7 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Not anything I can read Dave - They do pay to be in Erasmus, and other EU programs, but it's not voluntarily, it has to, to take part in the program.

But that's the point. They pay more to take part in more. So the UK could have a cheaper deal, but with a basic model. Not one I would advocate though. We all like heated seats.

[HairyOb1]

Just now, spyguy said:

AFAIK Norway has never asserted any power or influence over the EU  They can't.  They're in the EEA, there is no control.  This is essentially you saying they have no contorl, but that's ok, as they're cool with it.  They have no choice!

At the mo, its happy with access to Europe and being asked to attend the meetings. building up its soft power - They aren't asked to meetings, they're only in the EEA.

I dont think the Norgies are doing anything dodgy. Just its going well - or has for them - and they are happy to play the long game and pay to play - They aren't doing anything dodgy, no one is suggesting that.  What we're saying is that, per capita, they pay almost as much as we do, but have no control, have to abide by EU edicts, have to have FOM and pay for trade and other EU institutions.

 

[jonb2]

2 hours ago, spyguy said:

No.

#1 - TCs were pure Brown vote for me!

#2 The jobs are crap as you cannot get anyone to work more than 16h. TCs are creating crap, low paid PT jobs. Its not the other way.

#3 Nah. SPorts direct are just a compnay that took adavanatge of relative strong pouind, subbed labour. SD will go pop in a year or so.

#4 No its not. Its fiven a stage to plead for subbed Labour. It needs slapping down.

'#5 Nope. She really just stopped subbing economic basketcases. She should have extebnded her reformign zeal to the public sector. I say that as the grandson of a couple of miners. In my cas, my famili had all been laid off from the ptis well before Thatcjer  came to pwoer.

 

You really are a single issue (Spy)guy.

Your obsession with Brown and Tax Credits attacks a microcosm of the symptoms of what's wrong.

1) See above

2) No, the problem is, as a country, that we are entering post-industria with little talent and no vision. There will be an increased need for benefits, as it suits the elites to farm people and exploit them on government subsidy. The amount of good jobs for the man of the street is going DOWN fast. What you going to do to stop huge social unrest - run a cull?

3) Sports Direct is a shining example of the malady. Legalised corporate greed.

4) Exactly my point - how are you going to magic up decent jobs?

5) Disagree, she may have curbed industrial union power - which was rampant and out of control. But she did not have the forethought to replace it with anything else except a non-humanised "greed is good" ethos. She was a zealot. If we lived in the 16th century, she would have been one of those catholic witch-finder generals.

... and here we are today. A living example of the failure of neo-liberalism.

[HairyOb1]

1 minute ago, GrizzlyDave said:

But that's the point. They pay more to take part in more. So the UK could have a cheaper deal, but with a basic model. Not one I would advocate though. We all like heated seats.

No, they pay to trade based on their economy.  They pay to be members of the EEA.  That's the base price, based on economy, per capita.  Other  parts they've negotiated to pay into.

So they pay almost as much as us, for less control, less say and with no seat at the table.  They have FOM, abide by ECJ and have enshrined all EU law onto their statute books.  Pretty much everything we've stated we're NOT going to do!

[spyguy]

46 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

A matter of opinion - I think paying $6 per head less, having no control, having to accept FOM and all of the regulations, laws is tantamount to the worst deal.  It's what we have now, with slightly less money paid, and absolutely the same conditions, but no say in the future.  It's insanity to suggest this is a good deal.  

I am a passionate remainer, but if this was the deal, I would think most would be angered by it.

Anyway, it is moot, as I said, I am led to believe May will make this clear in her speech later this month.

Norway is a cold ,wet country well away from anywhere. And peaks a wierd Scandi language.

They know theyve no risk of being overwhelmed by migrants in the same way as the UK.

 

[spyguy]

1 minute ago, jonb2 said:

You really are a single issue (Spy)guy.

Your obsession with Brown and Tax Credits attacks a microcosm of the symptoms of what's wrong.

1) See above

2) No, the problem is, as a country, that we are entering post-industria with little talent and no vision. There will be an increased need for benefits, as it suits the elites to farm people and exploit them on government subsidy. The amount of good jobs for the man of the street is going DOWN fast. What you going to do to stop huge social unrest - run a cull?

3) Sports Direct is a shining example of the malady. Legalised corporate greed.

4) Exactly my point - how are you going to magic up decent jobs?

5) Disagree, she may have curbed industrial union power - which was rampant and out of control. But she did not have the forethought to replace it with anything else except a non-humanised "greed is good" ethos. She was a zealot. If we lived in the 16th century, she would have been one of those catholic witch-finder generals.

... and here we are today. A living example of the failure of neo-liberalism.

Check SPorts Direct share price.

Its goign down.