happy_renting Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 According to polls there has been a big swing in favour of a Brexit. For the first time in weeks I think the UK may vote to leave the EU. The debate has turned nasty in the Tory party and Cameron is making a massive misjudgement in attacking Boris. The Brexit isn't about Boris, and Cameron's tactic merely elevates Boris's profile. If we vote to leave, Cameron surely can't now survive as PM. We would have to have someone seen as willing to carry out a Brexit. Could the Government fall? Possibly. Could we see a fight between Corbyn and Boris for premiership in the next few months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddog Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 I take the Independent poll with a pinch of salt, but yes I think leave could edge it. Cameron has been so aggressive and unpleasant with his project fear stunt that if he loses he is probably screwed. As most conservative votes have at least a little bit of Euroscepticism in them you would have thought he would have tried to keep it dignified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ill_handle_it Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Forget the polls. The EU don't much care about votes. Best odds 5:2 to remain,yet polls roughly equal. I've put my life savings of 20 squids on remain. I'm going to donate my £8 winnings to Refugees Welcome. Allah yusallmak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Hovis Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Don't forget the Liberals' leader, he may have a big role to play in this. Um, it's on the tip of my tongue. It's a bloke, I remember that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spunko2010 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Corbyn will also be ousted if Dave goes. He isn't popular enough with Labour voters or the wider public. He should have campaigned on the Leave vote as a life long eurosceptic but wasn't brave enough. He's mincemeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spunko2010 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 What I'm more interested in is what will happen to farage if we leave. The Tories are terrified of Ukip. Will they invite Farage into government or continue to slander him. I suspect he'll rebrand Ukip to form a new party campaigning for smaller government as the Tories aren't really Tories any more. I'd probably still vote for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Hovis Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 What I'm more interested in is what will happen to farage if we leave. The Tories are terrified of Ukip. Will they invite Farage into government or continue to slander him. I suspect he'll rebrand Ukip to form a new party campaigning for smaller government as the Tories aren't really Tories any more. I'd probably still vote for him. I half think he may retire from politics in the event of Brexit. His work of all these years will be done; the war would be won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steppenpig Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Don't forget the Liberals' leader, he may have a big role to play in this. Um, it's on the tip of my tongue. It's a bloke, I remember that. I know who you mean! Although I may be mixing him up with someone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SarahBell Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 I know who you mean! Although I may be mixing him up with someone else. Fallon, Farron? Tim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Corbyn will also be ousted if Dave goes. He isn't popular enough with Labour voters or the wider public. Don't bet on it. He has a massive mandate and will be hard to shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 On topic, I think you're right and I think Corbyn will end up PM because people will be disgusted at having been lied to by the pro-Brexit campaign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 we have fixed terms now so presumably nothing exciting would need to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SarahBell Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 we have fixed terms now so presumably nothing exciting would need to happen I do not believe Boris would ever get elected as leader of the conservatives. He's way too fruitcake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cosmic Apple Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Cameron and Corbyn can't last as leaders in a post Leave Britian, Corbyn for not sticking to his principles and backing Leave which he naturally should have done and Cameron for failing to secure the vote for Remain as PM. There will be massive fall out from this either way, and in the event of a Leave vote massive fall out and repercussions throughout the EU. Interesting times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 we have fixed terms now so presumably nothing exciting would need to happen The Fixed-term Paliaments Act says that if a Government loses a no confidence vote and a new Government isn't able to win a confidence vote within 14 days then a general election must be held. The Tories only have a majority of 8 so if the infighting got really bad in the Conservative party post-referendum then you'd only need a handful to vote against the Government in a no-confidence vote to trigger an election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 If UK leave then I suspect the whole EU project will fall like a pack of cards and that will not be allowed to happen, end of. The EU is done either way. The only question is who ends up taking the blame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 The EU is done either way. The only question is who ends up taking the blame. Why do you think so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XswampyX Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 Why do you think so? Because it's undemocratic. It's not some unfortunate accident that democracy breeds success, rather it's because of it. The EU isn't democratic, so will fail. 500 million people and what they value V's 5 people isolated in the EU bubble. FIGHT! Everything the EU does is s**t, and everybody knows it. That's not my view point, it's just the way it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
long time lurking Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 Why do you think so? Because the only chance it has of surviving long term is a fully fiscal and political union ,can you see the German taxpayer subsidising the Greeks/Spanish /Portuguese , can you see the Greeks being ruled by some one in Brussels ,can you see the UK taxpayer excepting that our government`s budget and funding is going to be decided by someone in Brussels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 Why do you think so? The EU is like a shark. It has to keep moving forward, or it dies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy_renting Posted June 12, 2016 Author Share Posted June 12, 2016 The Fixed-term Paliaments Act says that if a Government loses a no confidence vote and a new Government isn't able to win a confidence vote within 14 days then a general election must be held. The Tories only have a majority of 8 so if the infighting got really bad in the Conservative party post-referendum then you'd only need a handful to vote against the Government in a no-confidence vote to trigger an election. I forgot how slim the majority is. There would be little prospect of the Tories agreeing on a new leader and avoiding an election. Maybe Cameron wouldn't be bothered, he does not intend to continue for long anyway. Will this split the Tory party? Who has the clout to hold them together? I don't see Osborn or Johnson doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 I forgot how slim the majority is. There would be little prospect of the Tories agreeing on a new leader and avoiding an election. Maybe Cameron wouldn't be bothered, he does not intend to continue for long anyway. Will this split the Tory party? Who has the clout to hold them together? I don't see Osborn or Johnson doing it. With the added complication that the Conservative party chooses its leaders by a vote of the grassroots party members, not just the parliamentary party. Not sure what the mechanism is of triggering a leadership election if the current leader doesn't want to stand down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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