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TheCountOfNowhere

We've Missed The Boat...again

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Yet in many areas London, SE etc prices are above 2007 highs in real terms apparently, so what's dragging the average UK price down? Must be some cheap as chips areas around...

What's dragging it up you mean.

The London Mega bubble.

Take away London and that graph will collapse.

Still, it's nice to fish out another troll. :D:D:D:D

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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What's dragging it up you mean.

The London Mega bubble.

Take away London and that graph will collapse.

Still, it's nice to fish out another troll. :D:D:D:D

Fully aware and post was meant in sarcasm Edited by streamingfreedom

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On a serious note I've never been more confident that prices will not increase much more. People simply can't afford to pay or borrow anymore in rent or a mortgage. We've been squeezed to the absolute maximum, again, and it's the end of the road. the absolute best (worse) the power that be could do is maintain prices where they are for a time through continued hair-brained schemes. Until they decide they don't want to and then it's toast.

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Yet in many areas London, SE etc prices are above 2007 highs in real terms apparently, so what's dragging the average UK price down? Must be some cheap as chips areas around...

Need a chart related to wage inflation, not iphone and app inflation.

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On a serious note I've never been more confident that prices will not increase much more. People simply can't afford to pay or borrow anymore in rent or a mortgage. We've been squeezed to the absolute maximum, again, and it's the end of the road. the absolute best (worse) the power that be could do is maintain prices where they are for a time through continued hair-brained schemes. Until they decide they don't want to and then it's toast.

Reintroduction of MIRAS. Even more bonkers 'Help to Buy' subsidies. Government backed mortgage trading agency a la FMAC in the USA .....

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On a serious note I've never been more confident that prices will not increase much more. People simply can't afford to pay or borrow anymore in rent or a mortgage. We've been squeezed to the absolute maximum, again, and it's the end of the road. the absolute best (worse) the power that be could do is maintain prices where they are for a time through continued hair-brained schemes. Until they decide they don't want to and then it's toast.

Lifetime/inter-generational mortgages, as you'll find in Japan. Lock the population into a perpetual and un-payable debt and their work is finally done.

The banking system will find a way to keep sucking at this teat and, never forget, they have invested their profits in buying the best politicians money can buy. Between them, they will find a way...

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Lifetime/inter-generational mortgages, as you'll find in Japan. Lock the population into a perpetual and un-payable debt and their work is finally done.

The banking system will find a way to keep sucking at this teat and, never forget, they have invested their profits in buying the best politicians money can buy. Between them, they will find a way...

Perhaps, and then you're left with a choice, participate in the madness or not.

I met a lot of Japanese friends at Uni as I studied Japanese as a second language and never met anyone that had any interest in taking on a lifetime mortgage. To be fair they were students so hardly had that on their mind. It's a totally different country where a lifetime in an small apartment is completely normal and acceptable. If we don't get a crash and the current situation is sustained that would be the future for people in the UK. Certainly that's what developers are building more and more of to get maximum ROI on their land. But it would be a bitter pill to swallow for many that grew up in a traditional British house with a garden for the kids to play in and their own bedroom.

At which point the choice will be emigrate for many.

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Even a tiny 1-bed flat in London with the washing machine six-inches from the sofa is over £300k. Not sure how they plan to squeeze space even more. A house with a garden and a few bedrooms seems like the stuff of Narnia.

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At which point the choice will be emigrate for many.

Which is an option open to few in Japan. For the UK, flights to Ireland, Oz and US/Canada are fairly cheap and often. Language and culture not an issue.

Even heading to continental Europe, as I did myself, is relatively straightforward. Kids who are between 10-22 today will make the choices we never had to. They won't hang around.....

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No matter what you choose to do in life, you're always missing a boat somewhere.

Miss the boat = opportunity cost.

I'd guess that pretty much 99.99% of people on HPC forums who haven't bought a property probably COULD buy a property if push came to shove - even a crappy 2-bedder in Moss Side next to a raucus student house.

Maybe....just maybe....there are better opportunities out there (e.g. emigration) than buying a property in the UK.

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Reintroduction of MIRAS. Even more bonkers 'Help to Buy' subsidies. Government backed mortgage trading agency a la FMAC in the USA .....

Yeah, HTB at 90% on a shared ownership of 2%. Leverage up on that rented home baby!

Edited by renting til I die

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Lifetime/inter-generational mortgages, as you'll find in Japan. Lock the population into a perpetual and un-payable debt and their work is finally done.

The banking system will find a way to keep sucking at this teat and, never forget, they have invested their profits in buying the best politicians money can buy. Between them, they will find a way...

We already have interest only. That's even cheaper.

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The other way is close the door to unlimited immigration. Cut demand for houses and prices will drop. Vote out of EU.

If only it were so simple.

If immigration is market driven then, implementing a 70s style closed economy will, indeed, see house prices will fall. If the workers don't come to the jobs then the jobs will move to the workers and prices for most things will fall - starting with labour (wages). Not really a rosy future.

OTOH (and this is arguably actually the case) then current immigration isn't driven by the market but is more aligned with the UK's insane benefit and tax credit system. In which case sort out the lunatic system but retain the benefits of free movement.

Finally, whatever the rationale behind immigration, its impact on house prices is negligible compared to the impact of incontinent credit and minimal interest rates.

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The other way is close the door to unlimited immigration. Cut demand for houses and prices will drop. Vote out of EU.

Cut demand ?

Better talk with the govt and the bankers then as they have been fuelling the HPI with their hare-brained schemes and debt-pumping these last 15yrs. Those poor immigrants must be carrying gold bars in the lining of their coats if they're the cause of the HPI.

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Cut demand ?

Better talk with the govt and the bankers then as they have been fuelling the HPI with their hare-brained schemes and debt-pumping these last 15yrs. Those poor immigrants must be carrying gold bars in the lining of their coats if they're the cause of the HPI.

Indirectly...they are the cause....15 of them paying 300 quid a month to live in an HMO....you can buy a really sh*t over priced house for £3K a month.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Indirectly...they are the cause....15 of them paying 300 quid a month to live in an HMO....you can buy a really sh*t over priced house for £3K a month.

Hmm. Then the 3 million immigrants[1] equates to 200,000 Brit-equivalent demand. As we've currently got 5.5 million Brits permanently living abroad[2], it don't look to me much like freedom of movement is to blame.

[1] dodgy source: I vaguely remember this number in a headline. Probably Daily Mail.

[2] less dodgy but still secondary source: quick google turns up BBC figure.

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Hmm. Then the 3 million immigrants[1] equates to 200,000 Brit-equivalent demand. As we've currently got 5.5 million Brits permanently living abroad[2], it don't look to me much like freedom of movement is to blame.

[1] dodgy source: I vaguely remember this number in a headline. Probably Daily Mail.

[2] less dodgy but still secondary source: quick google turns up BBC figure.

3million....is that official figure.

Have you been out your front door lately ?

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