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monkeyman1974

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About monkeyman1974

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  1. Well if you've experienced it in Spain, in one particular period, I guess it trumps the geometric maths
  2. My thoughts too. The young are royally screwed with HPC or HPI... truth, and it's ugly is 1% HPI and 5% wage inflation over a 10 year period (which would ignore the fact that the young also tend to get promoted) is the least worst option
  3. Outside of disease caused by damp / noise / cold and therefore associated with housing (cost), pretty clearly, I lay the responsibility on those experiencing lower life expectancy. Not drinking is cheaper than drinking. Not smoking is cheaper than smoking. Vegetables are cheaper than meat. Walking is cheaper than driving.
  4. @landlords_ltd if you want to have a pop on twitter
  5. Not least as 9.3% on London price v 19% on Wales, would actually see a widening of the margin, given the relativity of the starting numbers
  6. monkeyman1974

    Bloomberg: Investors want out

    Depending on it's redemptions policy, there can be an incentive to put redemptions in early "to get to front of queue". The IPF have done a ton of work on this area, and pretty much all the open ended funds (capital structure) where suspended come 2009/2010. All really boys down to an investment where the capital structure offers liquidity the underlying does not. In that respect REITS are better, but are hampered by having to distribute 90% of profits as income, leaving little to pay down gearing; and involuntary default events (where LTV rises because values fall). The PE boys haven't exited entirely from the last cycle so this is all getting rather interesting
  7. monkeyman1974

    Centre Point “silly offers”

    I also don't think the 25 or so flats here are the problem, nor the 8 or so in the Shard. I think it is long term net migration https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/august2018 coupled with significant misallocation of bedrooms (characterised by the old single person in a four bedroom house) I'm offering no criticism of either (different debate)
  8. monkeyman1974

    Centre Point “silly offers”

    Goes to show that design appreciation is subjective. I like Seifert. What's more ironic is the ghost of Harry Hyams, keeping this fella empty as rents rose / the centrepoint charity for homeless, as championed in particular by the UK property giants, including Land Sec, for which our Mr Hussey was head of London..
  9. monkeyman1974

    Centre Point “silly offers”

    really? it is built out of Portland Stone (crushed)
  10. monkeyman1974

    What/who will collapse first in 2018

    Crawshaws Butcher - 40 branches - Administration
  11. monkeyman1974

    What/who will collapse first in 2018

    for retailers (outside of prime best towns) minimum wage is more of an issue but why has minimum wage increased high housing costs for a large part
  12. monkeyman1974

    What/who will collapse first in 2018

    >£500m of loss impressive - but it's goodwill (WTF), IT and lease impairments. Sounds like the accountants have finally got real. In what sane world can Debs have £hundreds millions of goodwill. But what is this, just a balance-sheet impairment? It's not cash out. Question - will it hit the banking covenants? Think the credit insurance has already taken a bashing. Goodwill feels entirely ethereal.. Surely the yield will be the market implying the effect of any "goodwill" - seems like it needs to be written down across the board. I'm sure the clever analysts discount it anyway.
  13. monkeyman1974

    What/who will collapse first in 2018

    Correct - the in work benefits are a joke As frankly is social housing in central London (for example) - just means Deutsche Bank pays the Spanish cleaner less money, as they live close. ****** to that, make them pay proper rates of pay - don't make me subsidise them through tax / and price me out
  14. monkeyman1974

    What/who will collapse first in 2018

    CVA are a valid process - Agreed LL don't have to accept them - you can vote against and be bound by the majority vote; typically the CVA will however allow a landlord to have a break, so ensure support for the vote. The CVA is to protect the debtor. Also avoids insolvency provisions in leases.
  15. monkeyman1974

    What Madness

    This.... Cashflow is king. Pay all proceeds to bank, and still have CGT bill. Did sir MEW??
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