TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 17, 2015 Author Share Posted August 17, 2015 I haven't viewed a house since I bought my one and only place nearly 18yrs ago. The stress of that time still lingers. Would love to have traded up after 10yrs, but crazy HPI put paid to that. I'm seeing plenty of unoccupied houses all along the coast where I live - French Riviera. All the boomers are now selling up and moving back to where they came from or using the cash as retirement money/health costs. But they can't sell. We did think about moving to the UK for a while till I retire , then head back to France and buy a cheap place in the country. HPI killed that idea also. I look on UK websites from time to time...to keep updated In my price bracket, most of what I see is in the UK is rubbish. Overpriced rubbish. EVERYTHING I see listed in the UK is overpriced rubbish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canbuywontbuy Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 If you put all your cash in one unmovable asset, they have you by the b*llocks ....then imagine buying such an asset near/at the top of the market that's already topped out for years. A bizarre level of ignorance would be required to do that - followed by intolerable regret. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 (edited) Desperate, but not desperate enough, ALL of them have already dropped there asking prices, some considerably....still all overvalued. It's because of their mindset. Tell them that house prices will double over the next five years and they will rub their hands in glee and sit tight. Tell them that house prices will halve over the next five years and they will think you are mad, but prices historically fluctuate and bust follows boom. Look at Greater London in the late 90s, prices dropped over 30% and that was after a much smaller boom than we've had over the last fifteen years. Edited August 17, 2015 by Bruce Banner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 17, 2015 Author Share Posted August 17, 2015 (edited) It's because of their mindset. Tell them that house prices will double over the next five years and they will rub their hands in glee and sit tight. Tell them that house prices will halve over the next five years and they will think you are mad, but prices historically fluctuate and bust follows boom. Look at Greater London in the late 90s, prices dropped over 30% and that was after a much smaller boom than we've had over the last fifteen years. Sadly this is true. 2004/2005 should have been an end to this madness as TPTB realised it was getting out of hand and sometrhing bad might happen. Instead, the lowered IRs !!! 2007/2008 something bad happened and that should have been an end to this madness, instead they lowered IRs and started money printing !!! 2008-2012 saw some realisation that the system was ****ed. Many house just sat unsold for years 2012-2014 pre-election government made things 10 times worse by pumping bubble as hard as they could with FLS/HTB 2015 - Slow down commences and many people look like they know what's coming. The rhetoric has changed. One can sense the game is up ( again ). 2016 - Total Collapse ? The thing is, not until total collapse and another bank run will they stop this utter stupidity IMHO Edited August 17, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 17, 2015 Author Share Posted August 17, 2015 ....then imagine buying such an asset near/at the top of the market that's already topped out for years WITH IRs near 0% and a government supporting sub-prime mortgages and guaranteeing bank losses of 20% for first time buyers. A bizarre level of ignorance would be required to do that - followed by intolerable regret. Caveat Emptor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agentimmo Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 EVERYTHING I see listed in the UK is overpriced rubbish. To be fair, there are some places I like in the west/north west of Scotland that have decent quaity / price. But we decided that we'll spend 3mnths a year up there in retirement and rent. Given the ease of the web and sites like airbnb, owners abroad, etc - it's cheap as chips to rent for this length of time. Plus, if we don't like the area/neighbours or weather or fall ill, we can move on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 17, 2015 Author Share Posted August 17, 2015 To be fair, there are some places I like in the west/north west of Scotland that have decent quaity / price. But we decided that we'll spend 3mnths a year up there in retirement and rent. Given the ease of the web and sites like airbnb, owners abroad, etc - it's cheap as chips to rent for this length of time. Plus, if we don't like the area/neighbours or weather or fall ill, we can move on. Fair point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Sadly this is true. 2004/2005 should have been an end to this madness as TPTB realised it was getting out of hand and sometrhing bad might happen. Instead, the lowered IRs !!! 2007/2008 something bad happened and that should have been an end to this madness, instead they lowered IRs and started money printing !!! 2008-2012 saw some realisation that the system was ****ed. Many house just sat unsold for years 2012-2014 pre-election government made things 10 times worse by pumping bubble as hard as they could with FLS/HTB 2015 - Slow down commences and many people look like they know what's coming. The rhetoric has changed. One can sense the game is up ( again ). 2016 - Total Collapse ? The thing is, not until total collapse and another bank run will they stop this utter stupidity IMHO 2016 - stagflationary sharp shock (raising IRs to combat inflation whilst also in recession) OR not - if not then rinse and repeat with gradual Japanese falls for the next 15 years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 (edited) At least 2015.75 is going to be interesting. Something to look forward to even if it turns out to be a damp squib. The fact that it's received so little attention from the mainstream media suggests there might be something in it - most other similar doom dates get plenty of media coverage along with movies and TV documentaries etc. It could easily come under the category of "unexpected". Edited August 17, 2015 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 17, 2015 Author Share Posted August 17, 2015 (edited) At least 2015.75 is going to be interesting. Something to look forward to even if it turns out to be a damp squib. The fact that it's received so little attention from the mainstream media suggests there might be something in it - most other similar doom dates get plenty of media coverage along with movies and TV documentaries etc. It could easily come under the category of "unexpected". When did they copyright it ? And why are you breaching his copyright ? Or are you..... Edited August 17, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 (edited) When did they copyright it ? And why are you breaching his copyright ? Or are you..... I don't think I am - are you Should we remove the image I'm sure I've seen it posted on HPC elsewhere At any rate here's a link to the web site if you haven't already got it. http:// www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/tag/2015-75 Edited August 17, 2015 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olde guto Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 ....then imagine buying such an asset near/at the top of the market that's already topped out for years. A bizarre level of ignorance would be required to do that - followed by intolerable regret. Funnily enough I know of someone who has just done that. Not only that but paid at least £20k over what I'd consider the (overpriced) maximum for the road in question (I used to drink at a pub on the road and the area wasn't great and was made worse by that road connecting up to a council estate - it was like a war zone on Halloween). They seem determined to spend £1000's on redecorating as well. Mind you their parents used to be an EA and mortgage advisor for a BS (started running a catering business after the credit crunch), so the brainwashing started at a very early age. Karma? The sins of the father and all that? One thing worthy of note is that it's only because of an inheritance that went towards the deposit that they were able to do this (they had a student loan, pretty big OD and owed money of CC's), plus they're in their mid-late 20's (and were utterly obsessed with buying a house). They'll learn the hard way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 There really is something stupid about us Please don't include me in the 'us'. They can eat at massive HPC. I've already paid twice for 'collective responsibility' victimhood, whilst others rattle around £1m valued houses complacent to anything in financial world, expecting moar HPI+++, and scoffing at idea of ever downsizing... HPI locked in, and would 'miss out' on future HPI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Funnily enough I know of someone who has just done that. Not only that but paid at least £20k over what I'd consider the (overpriced) maximum for the road in question (I used to drink at a pub on the road and the area wasn't great and was made worse by that road connecting up to a council estate - it was like a war zone on Halloween). They seem determined to spend £1000's on redecorating as well. Mind you their parents used to be an EA and mortgage advisor for a BS (started running a catering business after the credit crunch), so the brainwashing started at a very early age. Karma? The sins of the father and all that? One thing worthy of note is that it's only because of an inheritance that went towards the deposit that they were able to do this (they had a student loan, pretty big OD and owed money of CC's), plus they're in their mid-late 20's (and were utterly obsessed with buying a house). They'll learn the hard way. There's no excuses at these prices. Brainwashing excuses... can't get away with them. Not at these prices. It's not 2008 again when the brainwashed victims excuse was all the rage. 'Collective responsibility'. For mid-late 20s paying these prices again vs some of us here in our 40s waiting for HPC, learning bailouts the hard way? It's 2007+30% here. You think it's overpriced and they've set another top by paying £20K more. Outbidding others in process, who recoil from the prices. Any bailout can come directly from the hpc-softheart next time to such buyers... not from Gov/taxypayers. Yes they have to learn the hard way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thejaksie Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 It's definitely the peak . Evidenced by me having put an offer down on a place. Above asking don't ask me why and I defintely won't try and convince you that there is no crash coming and this is a good idea - very risky business. Just got really bored waiting for so many years and want to settle in a house suitable for the next 15 years and we found one we like and it's crazy expensive but somehow ok compared to the other cr*p on the market. I have (almost) capitulated, if you can't beat them might as well join them. I have sold out AARGH last time I bought that was April 2007 (before selling in '12), at the absolulte peak. So start shorting, the HPC is nigh! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 It's definitely the peak . Evidenced by me having put an offer down on a place. Above asking don't ask me why and I defintely won't try and convince you that there is no Sorry, but I have to ask, was it sealed bids? An offer over asking price gives the EA the green light to start a Dutch auction, as he knows you really want the house. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
righttoleech Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 It's because of their mindset. Tell them that house prices will double over the next five years and they will rub their hands in glee and sit tight. Tell them that house prices will halve over the next five years and they will think you are mad, but prices historically fluctuate and bust follows boom. Look at Greater London in the late 90s, prices dropped over 30% and that was after a much smaller boom than we've had over the last fifteen years. I bought new in 1989, not only did a neighbours repossession bought for £165,000 sell for £95,000 6 years later, this takes no account of inflation which was substantial at this time. Whilst the houses fell by annual salary amounts mortgages hit 17%. Most people who were around at the time seem to have forgotten or are in denial. I am beginning to think now that the crash will never happen.....so it is probaby imminent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thejaksie Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Sorry, but I have to ask, was it sealed bids? An offer over asking price gives the EA the green light to start a Dutch auction, as he knows you really want the house. The agent actually didn't want us to bid higher, suspect they favoured the other buyer for some reason (suspect the other purchaser arranged their mortgage through them) . So we submitted a higher bid anyway which was passed along. It's our final bid no further increase Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
streamingfreedom Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 I am beginning to think now that the crash will never happen.....so it is probaby imminent Same here... my wife is desperate to gain the 'security' of a mortgage, while I keep saying that a crash is just around the corner. Kind of a moot point since we can't afford anything livable anyway, but I also feel like it may never happen. This is the new norm...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewig Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 My krusty alsop loving HPI cliche spouting primary school teaching sister just had an offer accepted on a new build shitbox for sale. Showed me it on rightmove and said 'what would you offer? we were thinking of going in at £xxxk (96% of asking price) and if they don't accept, offering £xxxk (98% of asking).' I said take a look at sold prices in the area rather than basing you offer on asking price. How do I do that was her reply. They got it for 98% of asking I gather. Krusty and Fill would be proud of her hardball negotiating skillz. Her previous form was buying at 2006 peak. Just sold that pile of bricks at a loss but somehow has rationalised it away in her head that they were really unlucky to buy at peak and that prices will only keep going up now. I'm hoping she hits a 2/2 bullseye on top picking here. Given up trying to reason with her, almost hope she crashes and burns which in conventional wisdom probably makes me a bad person but I'm sick of the madness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porca misèria Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 I viewed a place today. Very much what it said on the tin. Had potential to be a good place: ample space inside and out, quiet location, but rather bizarrely arranged. I should want to get it rewired (bah) and redecorate it (good), but also rearrange it to bring the kitchen up to the ground floor next to the dining room, and turn the downstairs nice room from a kitchen-diner (which leaves the real dining room redundant) into my office. Then the windowless downstairs room - the cellar - becomes a utility room and downstairs loo as well as storage. Thus leaving upstairs as bedrooms and bathroom. Should I offer as much as 80% of the asking price? Or should I start at that and knock off an estimate of the cost of alterations? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porca misèria Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 We are trying to sell a probate at the moment. I can reassure you that stupidly low offers (more compared to the EA's valuation than mine, to be honest) are very much the order of the day. Credible offers? Or offers that rely on your buyers finding a buyer and raising unhealthy mortgages? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 (edited) My krusty alsop loving HPI cliche spouting primary school teaching sister just had an offer accepted on a new build shitbox for sale. Showed me it on rightmove and said 'what would you offer? we were thinking of going in at £xxxk (96% of asking price) and if they don't accept, offering £xxxk (98% of asking).' I said take a look at sold prices in the area rather than basing you offer on asking price. How do I do that was her reply. They got it for 98% of asking I gather. Krusty and Fill would be proud of her hardball negotiating skillz. Her previous form was buying at 2006 peak. Just sold that pile of bricks at a loss but somehow has rationalised it away in her head that they were really unlucky to buy at peak and that prices will only keep going up now. I'm hoping she hits a 2/2 bullseye on top picking here. Given up trying to reason with her, almost hope she crashes and burns which in conventional wisdom probably makes me a bad person but I'm sick of the madness. I have a sister in law like this - I think she gets dragged into all the positive buying sentiment and the popularity contest that surrounds buying a house at the peak of the mania. Cue happy boomer relatives saying what a good buy etc. big smiles all round. 2005 and 2014. Edited August 17, 2015 by Si1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renting til I die Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 The whole experience leaved me, not with the usual feeling of being dirty, but a feeling of hope. Well if that how it left you feeling, I might try booking up a couple of viewings myself! I could do with a boost of hope! Of course being in the SE those feelings may not have sunk in here yet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest eight Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Credible offers? Or offers that rely on your buyers finding a buyer and raising unhealthy mortgages? I don't think anybody who was serious about buying it was using a mortgage. All of them are "investors" of one type or another. Re: your point about renovations - the house is "tired" (same owner since built, mid sixties) and we fully expect offers to reflect this. We get some feedback that the place "needs work" - it's not a major renovation project or anything, although some viewers seem to convince themselves that it is. No idea what a survey would say, if a buyer was relying on getting a mortgage. Really, it might have been sold by now but for the ineptitude of the EA. What are they actually for, except to get in the way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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