2050

[Northerner]

There is a town called Cunthorpe on your map.

Interestingly, Scunthorpe does get knocked back by a few workplace IT systems ...

[Nuggets Mahoney]

A late Victorian would have witnessed the practical implementation of electricity, telegraphy/ telephones, lightbulbs, the steam engine, steel hulled ships, railways, mass production, canning of perishables, flushing toilets, roll out of clean water systems, disinfectents, anaesthetics, and on and on.

Contemporary LED bulbs are, for example, impressive and all that but they're an incremental improvement on an earlier, genuine game changer.

And then WW1 and all that technological optimism, like that .... it's gone.

[EUBanana]

Culturally the thing that has changed the most is the fact that we now have hate crimes on the books.

Which means we now have lynch mobs of offendotrons on Twitter, and all the rest of course. i can't actually remember a more politically repressive time in my life.

[happy_renting]

A late Victorian would have witnessed the practical implementation of electricity, telegraphy/ telephones, lightbulbs, the steam engine, steel hulled ships, railways, mass production, canning of perishables, flushing toilets, roll out of clean water systems, disinfectents, anaesthetics, and on and on.

Contemporary LED bulbs are, for example, impressive and all that but they're an incremental improvement on an earlier, genuine game changer.

And then WW1 and all that technological optimism, like that .... it's gone.

Burt we now have sporks, special screwdrivers for ipods, wet wipes and Sybians.

Relentless progress.

[Battenberg]

Likewise, as discussed in OT previously, I suspect most folk don't even suspect how profound the impact of the Blair administration was. The scale of social engineering it pulled off is possibly one of those happenings that needs a few years to pass before people can look back and properly take it all in.

For me, the difference between pre and post 1997 is incredible. I felt such utter optimism at the time and after all "things could only get better" but the changes that have occurred make me want to weep.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

A late Victorian would have witnessed the practical implementation of electricity, telegraphy/ telephones, lightbulbs, the steam engine, steel hulled ships, railways, mass production, canning of perishables, flushing toilets, roll out of clean water systems, disinfectents, anaesthetics, and on and on.

Contemporary LED bulbs are, for example, impressive and all that but they're an incremental improvement on an earlier, genuine game changer.

And then WW1 and all that technological optimism, like that .... it's gone.

There is a much greater difference between say a tungsten filament bulb and an led than a tungsten filament bulb and town gas lights that came before it.

leds are one of the products that define our age. Our ability to manipulate matter/life at the atomic/molecular level is just as much a step change as anything we have experienced in previous centuries.

[chronyx]

Contemporary LED bulbs are, for example, impressive and all that but they're an incremental improvement on an earlier, genuine game changer.

What they represent as an engineering feat is far more impressive.

[Guest TheBlueCat]

For me the real game changer in world history just about possible in the next 50 years is cheap power generation from nuclear fusion. Imagine a world with no real need for fossil fuels, no power commodity boom and bust cycle and no tinpot dictators living off oil revenue.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

For me the real game changer in world history just about possible in the next 50 years is cheap power generation from nuclear fusion. Imagine a world with no real need for fossil fuels, no power commodity boom and bust cycle and no tinpot dictators living off oil revenue.

That could well happen and would indeed be a game changer. But what changes would that make to peoples lives ?

My guess is it would make power cheaper, but not so cheap that we would use it without discretion. For example it may allow us to do some things we can't do now, but not major things like backward extract carbon out of the atmosphere.

I think in many ways technology has got so specialised that there are few people out there who can actually appreciate the nuances. Because of that the majority can't understand the incredible nature of the processess we are currently performing routinely and therefore they argue that technology is not "progressing".

"I can't understand how technology is progressing" is of course distinct from "technology is not progressing".

[thecrashingisles]

Would they have got rid of all of the spiders, snakes, crocodiles and other deadly (to humans) creatures?

Despite that people already live longer than in the UK.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy

[thecrashingisles]

That could well happen and would indeed be a game changer. But what changes would that make to peoples lives ?

Don't you see? All that spare cash could go into property making us all rich!

[tinker]

Like they would allow us to have cheap, plentiful energy in some utopian, fair and shared way without there being a way of the few skimming off the top.

[Nuggets Mahoney]

"I can't understand how technology is progressing" is of course distinct from "technology is not progressing".

It's not necessarily a question of not understanding how the technology is progressing. It's also how the application of the technology and the utility it delivers are progressing.

I picked LEDs for example specifically because they are frightfully clever. In terms of the utility they deliver to people's lives though much of the potential impact has already been claimed by the older, cruder technology.

300mph maglev trains are impressive technological feats that make steam engines look archaic. They're still a train though.

And harking back to the razor blade thread, there's this absurd object...

All the associated technology which makes design and production of that object possible is genuinely impressive. Is this particular product a quantum leap in utility from the 1904 Gillette razor though?

[Turned Out Nice Again]

A late Victorian would have witnessed the practical implementation of electricity, telegraphy/ telephones, lightbulbs, the steam engine, steel hulled ships, railways, mass production, canning of perishables, flushing toilets, roll out of clean water systems, disinfectents, anaesthetics, and on and on.

Contemporary LED bulbs are, for example, impressive and all that but they're an incremental improvement on an earlier, genuine game changer.

And then WW1 and all that technological optimism, like that .... it's gone.

I've been saying this for years Nuggets, that we are actually in a period of technological stagnation, certainly compared to the late 19th, early 20th C.

By the 1930s, most modern technological advancements (mass media, telephone, air travel, domestic appliances etc.) were available -- at a price, obviously not for the masses.

In my bleaker moments I think nothing of significance has actually occurred in the world since the moon landings,

and maybe before that, the construction of the great pyramid in Egypt.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

It's not necessarily a question of not understanding how the technology is progressing. It's also how the application of the technology and the utility it deliveries are progressing.

I picked LEDs for example specifically because they are frightfully clever. In terms of the utility they deliver to people's lives though much of the potential impact has already been claimed by the older, cruder technology.

300mph maglev trains are impressive technological feats that make steam engines look archaic. They're still a train though.

And harking back to the razor blade thread, there's this absurd object...

All the associated technology which makes design and production of that object possible is genuinely impressive. Is this particular product a quantum leap in utility from the 1904 Gillette razor though?

Well, I'd disagree with the comments on leds, the impact on my life is huge in all sorts of ways, but it is of course subjective.

The razor I would agree. The design process and manufacturing equipment may well be impressive, but the end result is not something that has hugely more utility.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

I've been saying this for years Nuggets, that we are actually in a period of technological stagnation, certainly compared to the late 19th, early 20th C.

By the 1930s, most modern technological advancements (mass media, telephone, air travel, domestic appliances etc.) were available -- at a price, obviously not for the masses.

In my bleaker moments I think nothing of significance has actually occurred in the world since the moon landings,

and maybe before that, the construction of the great pyramid in Egypt.

So you wouldn't class the sequencing of the entire human genome, and the technology developed to do that as an achievement ?

I'm sorry, but you are utterly wrong.

[happy_renting]

For me the real game changer in world history just about possible in the next 50 years is cheap power generation from nuclear fusion. Imagine a world with no real need for fossil fuels, no power commodity boom and bust cycle and no tinpot dictators living off oil revenue.

Whoever succeeds in developing fusion power will not be giving the technology or energy away.

Expect it to be in the hands of a monopoly who will charge near-current rates for energy.

They might sell energy cheap for a while to destroy the oil and gas industries first.

[happy_renting]

ElImination of smallpox was no small feat.

Polio next, i hope.

[Nuggets Mahoney]

Well, I'd disagree with the comments on leds, the impact on my life is huge in all sorts of ways, but it is of course subjective.

Don't get me wrong, I think LEDs are the Mutt's nuts. Likewise, digital photography, solid state storage, tons of stuff. It's arguable you appreciate them more than most (younger) people if you'd worked with the tech that preceded it.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

ElImination of smallpox was no small feat.

Polio next, i hope.

Aboslutely - thing is there are hundreds of projects out there that have been conducted that are absolutely incredible, ranging from the use of space based telescopes to detect water in exoplanet atmospheres, CERN with its 15 petabyte a year data throughput analysis and the development of drugs such as herceptin :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trastuzumab

[thecrashingisles]

From VHS to Netflix in about 15 years. I'd say that's rapid progress, and in a way that genuinely transforms whole parts of the economy.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

Don't get me wrong, I think LEDs are the Mutt's nuts. Likewise, digital photography, solid state storage, tons of stuff. It's arguable you appreciate them more than most (younger) people if you'd worked with the tech that preceded it.

I think you really have to work intimately with an advanced technology to really appreciate the rate of progression. The technology I work with was pretty much invented in the 1970s although much of the physics was known before then. Most of the progress drawing on PC development and electronics development to improve sensitivity and the range applications that can be performed, developing new applications that weren't feasible with the old hardware. The rate of progress is mind boggling.

[StainlessSteelCat]

A lot of tech progress has been made - and I think we're on the cusp of some major breakthroughs.

Since 1980:

Computer in practically every house.

Internet - watch, read, listen to whatever you want when you want.

LEDs are incredible. I have bike lights nearly as powerful as a car for under £20 with a battery life of 4 hours+ My hallway light uses 1/15 of the energy of its predecessor and cost less than a quid delivered from China.

Smart mobile phones from £40.

Screens that are huge and cheap to run

Video conferencing

Domestic solar is basically near normal. Combined with energy efficiency you are within a whisker of being energy independent

Human genome sequenced.

Computer power still increasing at exponential rate.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

A lot of tech progress has been made - and I think we're on the cusp of some major breakthroughs.

Since 1980:

Computer in practically every house.

Internet - watch, read, listen to whatever you want when you want.

LEDs are incredible. I have bike lights nearly as powerful as a car for under £20 with a battery life of 4 hours+ My hallway light uses 1/15 of the energy of its predecessor and cost less than a quid delivered from China.

Smart mobile phones from £40.

Screens that are huge and cheap to run

Video conferencing

Domestic solar is basically near normal. Combined with energy efficiency you are within a whisker of being energy independent

Human genome sequenced.

Computer power still increasing at exponential rate.

Here's an interesting wikipedia stat :

• Telecommunications (capacity): The world's effective capacity to exchange information through two-way telecommunicationnetworks was 281 petabytes of information in 1986, 471 petabytes in 1993, 2,200 petabytes in 2000, and 65,000 petabytes in 2007 (this is the informational equivalent to every person exchanging 6 newspapers per day).

[MrPin]

ElImination of smallpox was no small feat.

Polio next, i hope.

Polio is a very small virus and has been made artificially in labs, in case we run out!