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Scaremongering Weather Forecasting


Hectors House

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HOLA441

What is it about the Weather Channel that it keeps issuing weather warnings predicting heavy snowfalls and that we are set for the worst winter in decades?

Every stupid rag has been running stories for weeks that we were to be under snow by end of October.

The latest scaremongering from the weather channel is that:

Typhoon warning: Winter weather hell as killer storm heads towards BRITAIN for Christmas

THE fallout from Super Typhoon Haiyan will wreak havoc in Britain throughout winter 2013 with the long range weather forecast warning heavy snow, huge storms, high winds and freezing temperatures are heading to the UK.

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/350300/Typhoon-warning-Winter-weather-hell-as-killer-storm-heads-towards-BRITAIN-for-Christmas

Its been in every idiot rag from Daily Star to Bristol Post

Just how the hell is a Typhoon going to travel 10,000 miles against weather systems and cause damage in the UK?

Utter rubbish!

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HOLA444

UK Outlook for Thursday 28 Nov 2013 to Thursday 12 Dec 2013:

There remains lower than average confidence regarding which weather patterns are likely to dominate through late November and early December, with no particularly strong signals indicating significantly above or below average temperatures or rainfall. Consequently conditions are not expected to be as mild as recent weeks, instead, temperatures are thought more likely to be just below average than above. There are some signs of precipitation amounts being closer to average for the time of year, suggesting some changeable spells of weather during this forecast period. Whilst there is also currently no signal for widespread wintry conditions, snow is not unusual during late November and early December. So, with temperatures more likely to be just below average, the chance of seeing snow across the UK increases relative to recent weeks.

Updated: 1151 on Wed 13 Nov 2013

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HOLA445

UK Outlook for Thursday 28 Nov 2013 to Thursday 12 Dec 2013:

There remains lower than average confidence regarding which weather patterns are likely to dominate through late November and early December, with no particularly strong signals indicating significantly above or below average temperatures or rainfall. Consequently conditions are not expected to be as mild as recent weeks, instead, temperatures are thought more likely to be just below average than above. There are some signs of precipitation amounts being closer to average for the time of year, suggesting some changeable spells of weather during this forecast period. Whilst there is also currently no signal for widespread wintry conditions, snow is not unusual during late November and early December. So, with temperatures more likely to be just below average, the chance of seeing snow across the UK increases relative to recent weeks.

Updated: 1151 on Wed 13 Nov 2013

Quite possibly the most pointless 'forecast' i have ever seen.

It could easily - and not kidding here - been replaced with 'we don't have a scooby' - and been exactly as accurate.

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UK Outlook for Thursday 28 Nov 2013 to Thursday 12 Dec 2013:

There remains lower than average confidence regarding which weather patterns are likely to dominate through late November and early December, with no particularly strong signals indicating significantly above or below average temperatures or rainfall. Consequently conditions are not expected to be as mild as recent weeks, instead, temperatures are thought more likely to be just below average than above. There are some signs of precipitation amounts being closer to average for the time of year, suggesting some changeable spells of weather during this forecast period. Whilst there is also currently no signal for widespread wintry conditions, snow is not unusual during late November and early December. So, with temperatures more likely to be just below average, the chance of seeing snow across the UK increases relative to recent weeks.

Updated: 1151 on Wed 13 Nov 2013

More likely to snow than it was in August and September? And you expect me not to panic?

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HOLA4417

Weather forecasts really annoy me. the only thing I ever want to know, is what's going to happen in the next two or three hours between my house and the town centre, and despite that being about the only timescale you can forecast acurately, it's usually quite a bit of effort to find out.

Also weather maps where they have little pictures of clouds and suns, and it's impossible to tell what's going on anywhere. Just show us the fronts and the isobars dammit, and we can work it all out for ourselves.

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HOLA4418

Weather forecasts really annoy me. the only thing I ever want to know, is what's going to happen in the next two or three hours between my house and the town centre, and despite that being about the only timescale you can forecast acurately, it's usually quite a bit of effort to find out.

Also weather maps where they have little pictures of clouds and suns, and it's impossible to tell what's going on anywhere. Just show us the fronts and the isobars dammit, and we can work it all out for ourselves.

The internet age makes it easy to cover things up on the sly too, today's forecast for my area was dry/cloudy when I checked yesterday, but it chucked it down good and proper for an hour or two and has been mostly wet. No sign of the old forecast on the web, they had been updated out of existence.

They are often quite accurate, but spectacularly wrong at other points. And I only look at two days ahead maximum as a self-imposed attempt to only get the best forecast info.

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HOLA4419

Here's Last year's version.

A 2010 version and

(ctrlC+ctrlV) of course the latest one, headline sneakily changed but of course we can't do without the annual quote: "forecaster for ..., said it was likely to be the worst winter for more than 100 years." Same forecaster every year, only this time within the article.

Yawn.

Edit again to add this example of extreme weather pron. Endless.

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£10.50 to you Mr. Pin as you are a special friend. Or £20 for three.

Each one comes with a mini shot of Scotch !

Is all this "disaster weather prediction" stuff, designed to make us "shop" more? I still have enough overcoats/anoraks left over from the time when I believed in this "guff", but I was in Scotland though, and it can get a bit nippy up there. Obviously I was not allowed underpants, whilst wearing the "Scottish Man Skirt". Oh crikey and then what? The hottest July day since Roman times! I despair! :blink:

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HOLA4423

Is all this "disaster weather prediction" stuff, designed to make us "shop" more? I still have enough overcoats/anoraks left over from the time when I believed in this "guff", but I was in Scotland though, and it can get a bit nippy up there. Obviously I was not allowed underpants, whilst wearing the "Scottish Man Skirt". Oh crikey and then what? The hottest July day since Roman times! I despair! :blink:

Come on Pin.

Everyone knows that you can never, ever, ever have too many Artic Anoraks.

Just think of how snug you will be writing down those train numbers.

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HOLA4424

Weather forecasts really annoy me. the only thing I ever want to know, is what's going to happen in the next two or three hours between my house and the town centre, and despite that being about the only timescale you can forecast acurately, it's usually quite a bit of effort to find out.

Also weather maps where they have little pictures of clouds and suns, and it's impossible to tell what's going on anywhere. Just show us the fronts and the isobars dammit, and we can work it all out for ourselves.

The problem seems to be having weather men / girls employed. All that the general public want to know can be covered in two lines which can be read at the end of the news.

But no, in order to justify their jobs you get a meteorological lecture banging on about cold fronts next Tuesday whilst you're left wondering whether it will rain tonight.

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HOLA4425

Come on Pin.

Everyone knows that you can never, ever, ever have too many Artic Anoraks.

Just think of how snug you will be writing down those train numbers.

I don't write them down Mr Slug. I remember them! I always think I've been on this class 319, electrical multiple unit on January 15 1998, when I was in carriage C, from Orpington to London Bridge! :blink:;)

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