BufferBear Bitcoin Bull Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 11 hours ago, RodCrosby said: I listen to FK on YouTube, although he seems mostly a mouthpiece for Santostasi. Another one I follow is CryptoCon, who seemed to independently come to the conclusion that the peaks will be in November 2025/2029/2033, etc. and the troughs in November 2026/2030/2034 etc., which aligns with the Power Law Model. Although recently he has suggested we could be moving to 3 year cycles. Thank you for the info. I have limited exp. in data so only have a basic grasp of Power Law etc. I kinda like Fred. Attacked by many when he spouts nonsense eg borrowing on Thorchain, ETFs are superior to self-custody etc but he seems to have calmed down. He was selling himself as an ETF Maxi but now he is becoming more of a Bitcoin Maxi. This is the guy who gave me $100 for making his thread fun when he became active as I kept pushing back on his nonsense. I has 'Dr Fred' donate it to OpenSats. I've just watched his discussion yesterday with Joe (UC) which was very good and today his focus on FIRE so you might be interested in BitcoinHornets calculator. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BufferBear Bitcoin Bull Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 For those who find charts useful... https://charts.bitbo.io/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BufferBear Bitcoin Bull Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Time for a profile pic upgrade in time for the halvening - Back to Bitcoin's roots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodCrosby Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 (edited) 1 hour ago, BufferBear Bitcoin Bull said: Thank you for the info. I have limited exp. in data so only have a basic grasp of Power Law etc. I kinda like Fred. Attacked by many when he spouts nonsense eg borrowing on Thorchain, ETFs are superior to self-custody etc but he seems to have calmed down. He was selling himself as an ETF Maxi but now he is becoming more of a Bitcoin Maxi. This is the guy who gave me $100 for making his thread fun when he became active as I kept pushing back on his nonsense. I has 'Dr Fred' donate it to OpenSats. I've just watched his discussion yesterday with Joe (UC) which was very good and today his focus on FIRE so you might be interested in BitcoinHornets calculator. Yep, Fred didn't seem to be able to make head'nor'tail of it. But I tracked it down myself. https://bitcoincompounding.com/ Mumbo-Jumbo, without much help to understand Diddly-Squat. But I'm cool with the predictions, whatever buttons I press... LOL. 🤣 Edited April 17 by RodCrosby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 With bitcoin rallying and halvening approaching I’ve actually snuck a bit more into it. We will see if that pays off. I didn’t put much in at lows so felt a bit behind the curve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BufferBear Bitcoin Bull Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 On 17/04/2024 at 22:59, RodCrosby said: Yep, Fred didn't seem to be able to make head'nor'tail of it. But I tracked it down myself. https://bitcoincompounding.com/ Mumbo-Jumbo, without much help to understand Diddly-Squat. But I'm cool with the predictions, whatever buttons I press... LOL. 🤣 It seemed like Fred jumped on without any prep. His head is all over the place as he admits so prefers short content. Been playing with your work, more projections to do but it's v useful! Wish I had these type of brain cell.s On 18/04/2024 at 18:14, scottbeard said: With bitcoin rallying and halvening approaching I’ve actually snuck a bit more into it. We will see if that pays off. I didn’t put much in at lows so felt a bit behind the curve. High probability it will pay off. Under $16l was nice. I stacked all the way up, all the way down, and all the way up again such is my conviction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodCrosby Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 (edited) The Fourth Halv(en)ing Arrives... https://coinmarketcap.com/events/bitcoin-halving/ https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-halving-livestream-where-to-watch Edited April 19 by RodCrosby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodCrosby Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 (edited) 2 hours ago, BufferBear Bitcoin Bull said: Been playing with your work, more projections to do but it's v useful! Wish I had these type of brain cell.s I just see beauty in numbers. Especially bitcoin numbers. And I'm a sucker for "What ifs?"... Edited April 19 by RodCrosby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crypto2001 Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 I have made an offer for a house which has been accepted at £400k. £200k is from savings and £200k from crypto investments. Do I need to source a special conveyancer for this job? Has anyone any experience with buying a home with crypto gains? Thanks in advance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 5 minutes ago, crypto2001 said: I have made an offer for a house which has been accepted at £400k. £200k is from savings and £200k from crypto investments. Do I need to source a special conveyancer for this job? Has anyone any experience with buying a home with crypto gains? Thanks in advance. Not directly, but as one buying a home you be asked to prove a "source of funds", which is both proving that you have the money and being asked to explain where it came from. The key is that you can prove those things. I can't immediately see why it would need a special conveyancer, and must be increasingly common with Bitcoin close to another ATH, but what precisely they accept as proof I don't know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sackboii Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 16 minutes ago, crypto2001 said: with crypto gains They may also ask for proof that the relevant taxes have been paid on the gains too ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Now the 2024 halving has happened... what are people's price expectations for the rest of the year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Just now, warpig said: Now the 2024 halving has happened... what are people's price expectations for the rest of the year? Up, down, or sideways. Preferably quickly up to $300k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 52 minutes ago, dugsbody said: Up, down, or sideways. Preferably quickly up to $300k. You may as well jump straight to $1B/BTC... why waste time! What's realistic though? As I understand it the rates the miners earn have halved... so financially there's less financial incentive to mine... doesn't that mean the price has less incentive to rise? They talk as if BTC becomes more scarce... but that isn't quite true, it's just the rate of discovery tails off, if I've understood it correctly. If so... doesn't that mean there's less incentive for the price to rise? If so... what's going to make it rise? Inflation? Safe haven asset? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bear Necessities Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 (edited) 1 hour ago, warpig said: You may as well jump straight to $1B/BTC... why waste time! What's realistic though? As I understand it the rates the miners earn have halved... so financially there's less financial incentive to mine... doesn't that mean the price has less incentive to rise? They talk as if BTC becomes more scarce... but that isn't quite true, it's just the rate of discovery tails off, if I've understood it correctly. If so... doesn't that mean there's less incentive for the price to rise? If so... what's going to make it rise? Inflation? Safe haven asset? at the moment what is causing it to rise is ETFs buying up bitcoin at a much much faster rate than it is being added for sale (there is only a certain amount for sale at any one time as lots of people keep it stored away and off the market) So in previous halving it becomes more costly to mine the same amount so there is less avaialbe to buy which increases the price. This time round the halving means the same in terms of bitcoin for sale from miners (half as much) but it's only a slight reduction in bitcoin for sale compared to last month, because its not just miners that put bitcoin up for sale, so do some investors) ETFs were already buying huge amounts before the halving, so rather than having not very much bitcoin on the market and an insatiable appetite, they have even less on the market and an insatiable appetite. (even if they occasionally have a rest before picking their knife and fork back up) So I think a lot of people think as we get towards the end of this year, beginning of the next that we are going to see bitcoin being worth very large numbers. Edited April 22 by Bear Necessities Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 54 minutes ago, Bear Necessities said: at the moment what is causing it to rise is ETFs buying up bitcoin at a much much faster rate than it is being added for sale (there is only a certain amount for sale at any one time as lots of people keep it stored away and off the market) So in previous halving it becomes more costly to mine the same amount so there is less avaialbe to buy which increases the price. This time round the halving means the same in terms of bitcoin for sale from miners (half as much) but it's only a slight reduction in bitcoin for sale compared to last month, because its not just miners that put bitcoin up for sale, so do some investors) ETFs were already buying huge amounts before the halving, so rather than having not very much bitcoin on the market and an insatiable appetite, they have even less on the market and an insatiable appetite. (even if they occasionally have a rest before picking their knife and fork back up) So I think a lot of people think as we get towards the end of this year, beginning of the next that we are going to see bitcoin being worth very large numbers. OK so... you think BTC's ETF increased exposure will push demand. Fair enough. I've always been sceptical of ETF's doing positive things for the underlying commodity. I appreciate there's a difference between future based ETF's and commodity based ETF's... but gold ETFs certainly wasn't positive for the price of gold in my view. Doesn't the miner's transaction costs go up after a halving? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bear Necessities Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 (edited) Spot bitcoin ETFs actually hold bitcoin (as oppose to the futures ones, which, as you say, don't), and I believe the various different entities running the various ETFs have been buying large numbers of bitcoins in recent weeks. I don't know how long that continues for as its all new to me. But if it becomes more expensive to mine so miners are bringing fewer bitcoins to the table, and if these ETFs are buying up as much as they can, then at some point they run out or drive the price up sufficiently that people sell their coins to them, I assume? But someone with a greater understanding than me (not difficult!) can probably explain if that's right so far and if so, where that's all likely to end. Edited April 22 by Bear Necessities Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 2 hours ago, warpig said: I've always been sceptical of ETF's doing positive things for the underlying commodity. It certainly brings in buyers who are happy to hold an ETF but nervous to hold the underlying commodity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2023the year of the crash Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Haven't previously halvenings made the price jump more rapidly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 1 hour ago, Bear Necessities said: Spot bitcoin ETFs actually hold bitcoin (as oppose to the futures ones, which, as you say, don't), and I believe the various different entities running the various ETFs have been buying large numbers of bitcoins in recent weeks. I don't know how long that continues for as its all new to me. But if it becomes more expensive to mine so miners are bringing fewer bitcoins to the table, and if these ETFs are buying up as much as they can, then at some point they run out or drive the price up sufficiently that people sell their coins to them, I assume? But someone with a greater understanding than me (not difficult!) can probably explain if that's right so far and if so, where that's all likely to end. I think in terms of the commodity driven ETFs that holds true, it's just the derivative based ETFs are where the gaming happens... That's what happened with gold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 29 minutes ago, scottbeard said: It certainly brings in buyers who are happy to hold an ETF but nervous to hold the underlying commodity. The derivative space isn't where people accumulate... it's where people speculate and "offset risk" - it's fraught with manipulation IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 26 minutes ago, 2023the year of the crash said: Haven't previously halvenings made the price jump more rapidly? Yeah they have... I looked at this earlier last week, as I was curious what happens next. It was possibly different back then, because BTC didn't really have the market exposure it enjoys now. It's not a leap of faith to assume BTC has reached a maturity, hence the ETFs, but I don't know if that facilitates exponential demand for BTC as it has in the past. At some point BTC will be established... I was just wondering considering the whimper that was this halving, whether it may have reached that point, hence my first question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bear Necessities Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 (edited) 17 minutes ago, warpig said: I was just wondering considering the whimper that was this halving I'm fairly certain in the previous three halvings it took the best part of a year before the price reached a peak for that cycle. I don't think in any of the previous ones it rocketed up the week of the halving. This one is unusual because it rebroke the all time high before the halving, whereas usually it doesn't revisit that until its climbing in the months after the halving. The previous halvings have all marked around the lowest point of that cycle. This time round felt different I think because institutional money was pouring in because of the EFT approval, so what that means for the next 6 to 12 months nobody knows for sure. Edited April 22 by Bear Necessities Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smash Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 2 hours ago, Bear Necessities said: Spot bitcoin ETFs actually hold bitcoin (as oppose to the futures ones, which, as you say, don't), and I believe the various different entities running the various ETFs have been buying large numbers of bitcoins in recent weeks. I don't know how long that continues for as its all new to me. But if it becomes more expensive to mine so miners are bringing fewer bitcoins to the table, and if these ETFs are buying up as much as they can, then at some point they run out or drive the price up sufficiently that people sell their coins to them, I assume? But someone with a greater understanding than me (not difficult!) can probably explain if that's right so far and if so, where that's all likely to end. I assumed (possibly incorrectly) that the likes of Blackrock only hold as much BTC as is necessary to match their exchange value in the ETF. They cant surely be sweeping up as much Bitcoin as they can lay their hands on as some kind of "reserve" for future possible inflows into the ETFs, that would be market manipulation wouldn't it ? Blackrock and others are, like, actually regulated, no? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy74 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Just to clarify exactly what the halving means (I know a lot are fully aware but some may be less so). It means every block discovered (roughly every 10 minutes) contains half the number of new bitcoin than it did before. This means for the same amount of work/computation, miners will earn half what they did before, whilst their energy costs remain the same, all else being equal. If they’re selling immediately this means half the supply of new coins, but new coins aren’t the only supply. Supply can also come from other holders, so it’s difficult to know the full impact of that. What could happen? The price could rise due to demand being higher than supply. Miners could deem mining no longer profitable and drop out, reducing the hash rate, and meaning remaining miners get a larger share. For example, if half the miners drop out, then the remaining miners will earn the same as they did before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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