When Will House Prices Stop Rising?

[pjw]

I hadn't noticed them rising - where I live in the North they are still falling - but Cowie has once again referenced the house price crash forum in his latest article today at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/propertyadvice/10040867/Home-front-when-will-house-prices-stop-rising.html

Anyone who believed the doom-mongers and preferred to rent rather than buy must bitterly regret doing so now. However, to be fair to those seething for a setback at housepricecrash.co.uk and elsewhere, some of the factors that boosted London valuations were unexpected and unlikely to be repeated.

Come on, own up! Who is it? Who on this forum is Cowie? Masked Tulip, is it you? Or is it Bloo Loo?

[(Blizzard)]

Anyone who believed the doom-mongers dared to be optimistic, and preferred to rent had been forced to rent rather than buy must bitterly regret doing so now can ****** off and die as far as I am concerned.

Remember children, the Daily Telegraph is the unofficial mouthpiece of the Conservative party.

Edited May 7, 2013 by (Blizzard)

[The Masked Tulip]

I hadn't noticed them rising - where I live in the North they are still falling - but Cowie has once again referenced the house price crash forum in his latest article today at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/propertyadvice/10040867/Home-front-when-will-house-prices-stop-rising.html

Come on, own up! Who is it? Who on this forum is Cowie? Masked Tulip, is it you? Or is it Bloo Loo?

I don't think people care any more

[Bruce Banner]

I hadn't noticed them rising - where I live in the North they are still falling - but Cowie has once again referenced the house price crash forum in his latest article today at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/propertyadvice/10040867/Home-front-when-will-house-prices-stop-rising.html

Come on, own up! Who is it? Who on this forum is Cowie? Masked Tulip, is it you? Or is it Bloo Loo?

Yet again he ignores opportunity cost .

Renting is not dead money when the interest on the money that you would otherwise have tied up in an illiquid, depreciating, asset more than covers the rent .

As for identity? They are legion.

.

Edited May 7, 2013 by Bruce Banner

[Bruce Banner]

Former Football Association chief executive David Davies is reviewing the papers on BBC News tonight. He's usually good for a property VI comment or two.

[zugzwang]

Cowie's employers, the brothers David and Frederick Barclay, derive a considerable proportion of their joint wealth from their ownership of UK property, while at the same time largely avoid paying taxes on their UK income thanks to their status as tax-exiles. These two facts are probably sufficient to explain the inconsistencies in the Telegraph's approach to the Crash. Yes, prices were too high and should fall precipitately as the economy is brought back from an over-dependence on banking and consumption. And no, any meaningful house price correction will do immense damage to the interests of property owners and bubble facilitators and should be talked down or waved away as much as possible.

[AvoidDebt]

IMPO he forgets to mention the most important factor why property is such an appealing investment for Britons. Most Brits will never ever get an opportunity to cash out at six figures, far too thick to innovate in business or play the stock market however property speculation offers them a slim chance of satisfying their greed whilst not having to use their piddly brains. It's become like the lottery - a form of escapism. Taking out a mortgage in contemporary Britain is like buying a shovel during the Californian gold rush.

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

I cancelled my daily paper soley on the rubbish he wrote. If the things I know about are so badly written about, how much rubbish is written about things I know nothing? I am constantly reminded about this from what I see is contained in the Mail or Express.

[winkie]

I cancelled my daily paper soley on the rubbish he wrote. If the things I know about are so badly written about, how much rubbish is written about things I know nothing? I am constantly reminded about this from what I see is contained in the Mail or Express.

I thought the headline messages were created to encourage the sale of papers comics not the other way round.

[Eddie_George]

IMPO he forgets to mention the most important factor why property is such an appealing investment for Britons. Most Brits will never ever get an opportunity to cash out at six figures, far too thick to innovate in business or play the stock market however property speculation offers them a slim chance of satisfying their greed whilst not having to use their piddly brains. It's become like the lottery - a form of escapism. Taking out a mortgage in contemporary Britain is like buying a shovel during the Californian gold rush.

+1

[Tired of Waiting]

(...)

Come on, own up! Who is it? Who on this forum is Cowie? Masked Tulip, is it you? Or is it Bloo Loo?

I'm sure he posts (posted?) here as well, but I don't think these are the main suspects. Cowie being so bitter about this forum must mean that he was a bull here and have been constantly defeated in his debates here, probably thoroughly humiliated too, given his strong resentments - IMHO.

[Tired of Waiting]

The problem I have with Cowie is that he is in fact stupid, has no basic understanding of economics and can't even get his facts right. (...)

+ 1

I cancelled my daily paper soley on the rubbish he wrote. If the things I know about are so badly written about, how much rubbish is written about things I know nothing? I am constantly reminded about this from what I see is contained in the Mail or Express.

Exactly. I've been in this very same journey, but about all mainstream media. It's incredible how low quality our press and broadcaster are.

Edited May 8, 2013 by Tired of Waiting

[The Spaniard]

Exactly. I've been in this very same journey, but about all mainstream media. It's incredible how low quality our press and broadcaster are.

Or maybe they are fair quality propagandists?

They do seem to control mass opinion adequately for their owners' purposes.

Edited May 8, 2013 by The Spaniard

[Rain'ard]

They always seem to show a graphic of Blakers Street Brighton. A much over priced artisans house with nowhere to park and no front garden ans sometimes pretends to be part of Kemp Town

[Orsino]

When will house prices stop rising? Err, when you apply inflation to that 0.9% annual 'rise' in national house prices.

[rantnrave]

Cowie's firing off a few shots before his views disappear behind a paywall and will be read by all of three people.

[NEO72]

I'm sure he posts (posted?) here as well, but I don't think these are the main suspects. Cowie being so bitter about this forum must mean that he was a bull here and have been constantly defeated in his debates here, probably thoroughly humiliated too, given his strong resentments - IMHO.

He does seem to have a bit of a chip on his shoulder doesn't he.

He also makes two incorrect assumptions:

1. Prices in London are representative of the rest of the country. Using the LR data he quotes, prices have fallen nominally between 8 and 24% from peak, depending roughly how far north you go. And this with unprecendented Government/BofE interventions - things aren't quite as rosy as he likes to make out.

2. Those who live outside London (the majority of the population) actually give a sh1t about what happens to prices there

[The Knimbies who say No]

HPC probably provides Mr Cowie's articles with a non-trivial fraction of his readership via clickthrough links. For someone who is fond of telling people how well he has done and continues to do for himself, he does seem rather insecure and childish. But that's the name of the game online, controversy=clicks=revenue.

Just Say No.

[MississippiJohnHurt]

Cowie's employers, the brothers David and Frederick Barclay, derive a considerable proportion of their joint wealth from their ownership of UK property, while at the same time largely avoid paying taxes on their UK income thanks to their status as tax-exiles. These two facts are probably sufficient to explain the inconsistencies in the Telegraph's approach to the Crash. Yes, prices were too high and should fall precipitately as the economy is brought back from an over-dependence on banking and consumption. And no, any meaningful house price correction will do immense damage to the interests of property owners and bubble facilitators and should be talked down or waved away as much as possible.

To be fair to the Telegraph they have some views on the other side too, Andrew Oxlade who is I think another personal finance reporter is consistently bearish, and there was a main business editorial slating the Help to Buy scheme the other week.

Cowie's fixation with this site is a bit weird though - this is about the 4th mention recently tacked onto the end of some report about a meaningless monthly data point. Strange that people with an alternative view have got under his skin so much. Although if he uses this site as a proxy for some of the comments below his articles I could see why he isn't our friend

[The Knimbies who say No]

To be fair to the Telegraph they have some views on the other side too, Andrew Oxlade who is I think another personal finance reporter is consistently bearish, and there was a main business editorial slating the Help to Buy scheme the other week.

Cowie's fixation with this site is a bit weird though - this is about the 4th mention recently tacked onto the end of some report about a meaningless monthly data point. Strange that people with an alternative view have got under his skin so much. Although if he uses this site as a proxy for some of the comments below his articles I could see why he isn't our friend

Don't forget the phalanx of personal finance journos they have who are just itching to get a ramp in, here's one on the back of the Halifax figures:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-life/10043249/Morgages-how-to-get-on-the-housing-ladder-Purse-Strings.html

House prices are on the rise. We're not talking a Nineties style property boom, but according to the latest Halifax house price index, the average home has increased 2 per cent in value over the past year.

It is an upward trend that is expected to continue, and with the price of rent far outstripping the average mortgage payment - if it's a leap you can afford - home ownership is actually the cheaper option.

Telegraph Personal Finance: First time buyer how-to mortgage guide

Granted it's easier said than done. With the average house now costing £166,094 and the average first time buyer deposit required to secure a home loan at 20 per cent – that's a lump-sum payment of £33,218 you need to muster from somewhere. Add to that legal fees, mortgage arrangement charges, furnishing costs and the price of moving and you're looking at an outlay of closer to £38,000. Ouch.

The first thing you need to do is to decide whether you want an interest only or repayment mortgage. With interest only you just pay off the interest you are charged on the mortgage loan and when you sell the property you pay the bank back the loan amount, with a repayment mortgage you pay off the loan and steadily own more of the house.

Very few lenders offer interest-only deals anymore – you need a very large deposit to secure one.

Tracker or fixed rate?

Second decision – tracker or fixed rate. A tracker mortgage 'tracks' Bank of England Base rate (currently 0.5 per cent) meaning the interest rate you are charged goes up or down with this number. So your interest rate could be Base rate plus 2.5 per cent, meaning at the moment you'd pay 3 per cent, but if Base rate went up to 1 per cent, you'd pay 3.5 per cent.

These are very cheap at the moment, but they come with a certain degree of uncertainty. Fixed rate mortgages may be slightly more expensive now, but at least you know what you'll be paying every month and can budget accordingly. You can chose to fix for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and even 10 years.

Once you've plundered childhood savings (and more than likely the Bank of Mum and Dad) you should go to a price comparison website to look at the kind of deals offered to people with similar deposits to you. You will see a column saying either deposit (self explanatory) or "max LTV" that stands for loan to value, as in 100 per cent minus the deposit you have.

Try Moneyfacts, Moneysupermarket, or Moneynet for the most up to date home loan deals.

This should just give you an idea of what is out there so you feel armed for the next stage ... face to face meetings.

Meet four or five lenders

Book in to see four or five different banks and building societies' mortgage advisers – try Santander, HSBC, Halifax and Nationwide. You can often get very competitive deals from smaller building societies such as Chelsea, Norwich & Peterborough and Principality so you should try some of them too.

Go armed with your key facts and figures – you need to say what deposit you have, your income, the size of the loan you're after, the prospective postcodes of where you will live, that you want a repayment or interest only mortgage. I'd even print these key facts out on a piece of paper, just so you're prepped.

You want to come away from each meeting with three facts – the annual mortgage rate they can offer, what monthly payments this equates to, what their arrangement fee or charge is.

You can then compare like for like affordability and be sure you're getting the best deal for you.

So, tap up BoMaD, use all your savings and don't miss that 2% HPI boat, in summary. Very responsible journalism.

These people are the print versions of foot in the door salespeople who simply will not take no for an answer. I mean, look at the 'key facts' one should make sure they are 'armed' with, if this counts as advice worthy of putting into print. Desperate stuff. Remember to print out these key facts on a piece of paper- not your face, or your wall, or your dog. A piece of paper.

Edit to add I've not seen a hack have the audacity to suggest that renting far outstrips mortgage costs, most of the shady numbers produced periodically make it pretty marginal, even on their (usually flawed) basis.

Edited May 8, 2013 by cheeznbreed

[cybernoid]

Cowie being so bitter about this forum must mean that he was a bull here and have been constantly defeated in his debates here, probably thoroughly humiliated too, given his strong resentments - IMHO.

It is quite bizarre, it appears to be something of an obsession. But putting the URL on a national paper website just sends traffic over here where those capable of thinking might get a refreshingly honest perspective on the whole mess.

An odd fellow, if his lack of logic were not demonstrated by his 'economics' it is surely demonstrated by sending traffic to a website he despises on a regular basis.

His points as ever are not even worth debating, so I won't bother. Any renters here bitter at not buying? I'm perfectly comfortable thanks, the lady doth protest too much.

[Bruce Banner]

It is quite bizarre, it appears to be something of an obsession. But putting the URL on a national paper website just sends traffic over here where those capable of thinking might get a refreshingly honest perspective on the whole mess.

An odd fellow, if his lack of logic were not demonstrated by his 'economics' it is surely demonstrated by sending traffic to a website he despises on a regular basis.

His points as ever are not even worth debating, so I won't bother. Any renters here bitter at not buying? I'm perfectly comfortable thanks, the lady doth protest too much.

Fear does strange things with people's minds and too many buy to lets in a falling market equals fear.

[Trampa501]

I hadn't noticed them rising - where I live in the North they are still falling - but Cowie has once again referenced the house price crash forum in his latest article today at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/propertyadvice/10040867/Home-front-when-will-house-prices-stop-rising.html

Come on, own up! Who is it? Who on this forum is Cowie? Masked Tulip, is it you? Or is it Bloo Loo?

Cowie's not going to be one of the gloomsters, is he? Going to be one of the Bulls - like Hamish or Sibley. No reason why he doesn't just lurk, without posting.

[Pent Up]

House prices are rising? Even with everything the government can throw at it is barely stagnating outside London.