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MississippiJohnHurt

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About MississippiJohnHurt

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  1. MississippiJohnHurt

    Interest Rates 10 Years From Now

    Thanks Scepticus, most interesting as always. For me , even a price level similar to 2006/2007 would feel sustainable, it is the last few years that have taken it out of reach even for very high earners and at relatively low lending rates.
  2. MississippiJohnHurt

    Confidence Must Be Back...

    I wonder if this is the ripple in action. I look at a specific postcode round where I live, which is prime London emigrant territory - still on tube line but in leafy part of Essex, 4x4s and ballet classes extremely prevalent, etc etc The % of sold stc vs available stock has been declining quite rapidly lately. At the high end 800k+ it is less than 20%, which has previously seemed to be an indicator of falling prices. Other brackets are now 30% ish. At times in the last few years this would have been more like 50% plus. Total stock is increasing too. All seems to be moving in a good direction round here. Maybe what you are seeing in northampton is just the inevitable push of commuters outwards as closer markets become prohibitive. Given that the south east housing market is built on London commuting, it can't go on indefinitely. Although I did hear from Kirsty Allsop that the Faroe Islands are quite commutable to London nowadays....
  3. MississippiJohnHurt

    Interest Rates 10 Years From Now

    Congrats, Scepticus and Blandy, for the most interesting thread on hpc in 2016. If I may just take it back to housing for a moment, could I ask if Scepticus has a view on how much housing is currently overvalued based on the model described of prevailing interest rates tending towards the negative ? I can understand the position being put across and don't disagree, but as above you have the impression shelter is currently overvalued, even in the context of a system heading inexorably towards NIRP. So I guess my layman's questions are 1) do you have a view on the level of overvaluation in the current market (Londonis perhaps easiest reference point) and 2) why do you think this is sustaining - illiquidity/signal noise, or something more fundamental ? Thanks again for a v interesting read - this place obviously has its flaws but threads like this make it a better place
  4. MississippiJohnHurt

    Nationwide Hpi +0.6% M/m

    I used to walk past these when out as a yoot in northaw village, a very quiet spot for yoot-like sctivities. They are tiny - two up two down with front door straight to the living room. 650k !!! No station either. Maybe the 3rd bedroom in the roof is a portal to another dimension.
  5. MississippiJohnHurt

    Btl Scum Regrouping And On The Offensive. -- Merged

    From memory, the 'Orange Shirts' were the lead item on Newsnight on 22 July, before making the front pages of most of the next day's papers? It clearly got into people's consciousness too, the watercooler in my office was also abuzz with tales of the long awaited dawn of the brave landlords' resistance movement. "Not before time, good sirs" was the general consensus, as i recall.
  6. MississippiJohnHurt

    Btl Scum Regrouping And On The Offensive. -- Merged

    Ros at her charming best. I am always quite surprised that anyone thinks writing to someone in that tone will have any other effect than to alienate the person. In this example, the writer almost comes across as having no self awareness and a lack of appreciation for the consequences of her actions. Oh. Wait a minute
  7. MississippiJohnHurt

    Btl Scum Regrouping And On The Offensive. -- Merged

    . Also loving Down and Out in Malta and London, and Last Exit to Solvency
  8. MississippiJohnHurt

    Btl Scum Regrouping And On The Offensive. -- Merged

    [quote name="Ah-so" post="1103075367" timestamp="1472078830" I know HPC is powerful, but you still have a few allies. Like the Daily Telegraph and most of the other press, the various landlord associations, every bank and building society. I know that they are no match for the 36 of us on this virtually unknown website, but if you work together and pay £10 pm you might have a chance. After all, you will need so those donations for your CGT bill.
  9. Knock Out Johnny - as it goes i do owe you an apology, my post yesterday with the word 'b-llocks' in it was not constructive. In general i think i am encouraging of other views on here, so you should not assume thst it was born from some kind of hostility to an alternative view - was just in a rush and didnt enter the debate constructively. Fwiw i do think your original point was overly definitive and has not been backed up - but clearly there were better ways to have said that. This forum is at its best when there is good quality debate with a range of opinions and i think i usually try and contribute to that rather thsn hinder it !
  10. MississippiJohnHurt

    Btl Scum Regrouping And On The Offensive. -- Merged

    Yeah, well. That's what you might think. Seriously though, what does Alexander know that we dont ? Last time i checked, we hadnt even seen sny year on year falls. He has moved pretty quickly from reasonably benign mocking to full on Colonel Kurtz mode. Wonder why....
  11. a. that is CML lenders only b. it describes a trend but not an absolute - eg how do you know that the 22% dont represent a large volume of total let dwellings c. always a pleasure
  12. No stats = your earlier statement is b-llocks
  13. MississippiJohnHurt

    Are The Shires Crashing ?

    I search in an area supported by the london megabubble - east london borders, epping/loughton kind of area. Prime area for Zone 1/2 madgainz emigration I sometimes have a look at sold stc vs total stock as a rough guide for how hot the market is. I use the same postcode with similar parameters, just varying the min and max price to look at different segments. My most common search is 3 bed up to 400k. In 2008-10 it was usually about 20-25% of stock sold stc. 2010-12 ot went up taround 35% on average. Then over last couple of years it rocketed and was often 60-70%. Lately this has fallen rapidly and is now 35% again, falling each time ive looked (3 or 4 times in 6 mths). As prices have got so expensive here, volumes in the search category have fallen. So i started another search, cm16 postcode, 3 bed and over, 500-800k. This has mich higher volumes - usually 100 plus. It was also averaging 60% plus 2013-2015 and has now fallen sharply, 25% today on total volume 128 properties. Hardly science but gives some insight into supply vs demand and direction of travel in an area that was sent truly mental by the disgusting 2013-2015 echo boom
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