My Turn (Never Had One Before)

[bkkandrew]

I know I have a head start on you with the time difference and I know I have left it to the day itself.

But I am calling it anyway.

[DEATH]

More like a red one.... not sure which is worse....

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Black day threads are so last week.

[MrFlibble]

If not today it cannot be far off. The ass is dropping out of the global economy real fast

[scottbeard]

With the IMF deals over the weekend, more likely 1% up?

Black day to come when they realise Italy and Spain need haircuts too.

[Mr 0.01%]

Reuters only has ftse opening 20 pts down as of about an hour ago

[TheCountOfNowhere]

With the IMF deals over the weekend, more likely 1% up?

Black day to come when they realise Italy and Spain need haircuts too.

Just as likely as it going down. There is no sense to it...bad news ftse goes up...good news ftse goes up terrible new ftse goes up no news ftse plummets. It has all the trade marks of a fixed horse race.

I think the IMF/Euro-zone need to follow my plan...i.e. Each member state has their own currency and they have exchange rates between states. It seems like a great plan.

Then we could have Germany annexing Greece, a nice Italian dictator taking over just while they sort stuff out. Then Germany can boost production by building stuff, like Panza tanks ( say ) and re-branding the whole country with a really cool new flag.

EDIT: 08:20 - FTSE down -1.3 %....will finish 2 % up

Edited September 26, 2011 by TheCountOfNowhere

[TheCountOfNowhere]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/market-chaos-not-enough-to-deter-retail-shareholders-2361060.html

looks like small investors are taking a chance

Small investors are a bit thick, I include myself in that.

I use to believe the rhetoric that the FTSE was a great investment, would double every 10 years etc etc etc.

What a load of VI bull that turned out to be. My pension would be worth more if I had kept the money in my current account rather than giving it to some t**t in the city to invest and take a cut of.

The small investor is being shafted by the large corporations and the sooner they realize this and take their money out the better for them.

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/market-chaos-not-enough-to-deter-retail-shareholders-2361060.html

looks like small investors are taking a chance

Thats not really what it says at all, the article is totally misleading (quelle suprise). It highlights the period May to August, most of that period the market has been/seemed fine (until the end of July), i doubt theres been much buying since the End Of July (id wager most of it was buying at the top,as usual, off the back of the positive Greek parliamentary vote a couple of months ago) but the article doesnt clarify either way

Edited September 26, 2011 by Tamara De Lempicka

[_w_]

Thats not really what it says at all, the article is totally misleading (quelle suprise). It highlights the period May to August, most of that period the market has been/seemed fine (until the end of July), i doubt theres been much buying since the End Of July (id wager most of it was buying at the top,as usual, off the back of the positive Greek parliamentary vote a couple of months ago) but the article doesnt clarify either way

Thanks for checking it, it saves me from having to read it.

So it looks like someone is desperate to get punters, any punters, to come and support this market? Does the Russian owner of the independent have loans collateralised by shares?

[bkkandrew]

I now realise this was a foolish call...

Not because it won't happen, but I forgot I was picking a friend up at the airport now and then going out on the p1ss.

Won't get to monitor the spectacular prediction / terrible call*

(*Delete as appropriate)

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

Thanks for checking it, it saves me from having to read it.

So it looks like someone is desperate to get punters, any punters, to come and support this market? Does the Russian owner of the independent have loans collateralised by shares?

i doubt there is any conspiracy, its just a typical newspaper article that suggests something specific without saying anything on any use or insight whatsoever, what it really highlights is the danger of paying any attention to news and journalists, they have a job to do but that doesnt have any bearing on being informative

Edited September 26, 2011 by Tamara De Lempicka

[papag]

With the IMF deals over the weekend, more likely 1% up?

Black day to come when they realise Italy and Spain need haircuts too.

Im in Spain and you cant haircut a bald man,

Big rumours over here is Cam Bank is on the brink

[_w_]

i doubt there is any conspiracy, its just a typical newspaper article that suggests something specific without saying anything on any use or insight whatsoever, what it really highlights is the danger of paying any attention to news and journalists, they have a job to do but that doesnt have any bearing on being informative

I'm sure you're right but I can't avoid noticing that this kind of message (as in the headline) would entice some people to 'dip a toe', simply because they are given the impression others are doing it. Lethal.

[Democorruptcy]

i doubt there is any conspiracy, its just a typical newspaper article that suggests something specific without saying anything on any use or insight whatsoever, what it really highlights is the danger of paying any attention to news and journalists, they have a job to do but that doesnt have any bearing on being informative

The BBC news had an IFA on last week who said don't sell anything and now was a great time to buy. He said people should look at the longer picture and think 10 years. He said the stock had done very well over the last year. He never mentioned it had been a lot lower 09

It's clearly easy money and it doesn't matter when you buy... just BUY.

Like when they have mortgage brokers on ramping the housing market, it was never mentioned that he has a vested interest gets commission.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

The BBC news had an IFA on last week who said don't sell anything and now was a great time to buy. He said people should look at the longer picture and think 10 years. He said the stock had done very well over the last year. He never mentioned it had been a lot lower 09

It's clearly easy money and it doesn't matter when you buy... just BUY.

Like when they have mortgage brokers on ramping the housing market, it was never mentioned that he has a vested interest gets commission.

Did he mention the stock market was lower than 10 years ago ? ( or is it 14 years, cant be bothered looking it up, you be better off having bought a lifetime supply of bog-roll 15 years ago ).

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

The BBC news had an IFA on last week who said don't sell anything and now was a great time to buy. He said people should look at the longer picture and think 10 years. He said the stock had done very well over the last year. He never mentioned it had been a lot lower 09

It's clearly easy money and it doesn't matter when you buy... just BUY.

Like when they have mortgage brokers on ramping the housing market, it was never mentioned that he has a vested interest gets commission.

well id tend to agree that now isnt a good time to sell, that was probably at the end of last year when you could sell into bullishness, calm and tranquility, however you have had ever increasing asset prices for 30 years and theyve always quickly recovered further cementing the positive view (most commentators idea of history is about 12 months ago so naturally the perception of real asset price risk is that it doesnt exist, its been erradicated, the govt wont let it happen bla bla bla) and when such a riskless perception exists is exactly when there is actually the most extreme risk, such is the way with markets

To understand markets and pricing it is fundamental to ignore the perception of risk and concentrate on what that perception means for the numbers of buyers and sellers, Simplistically Bullishness means less buyers left so less upside, Bearishness means less Sellers left so less Downside (that is the physical reality that drives market price). Fundamentally inverse to actual perception which has no physical facts behind it

Edited September 26, 2011 by Tamara De Lempicka

[crashmonitor]

The BBC news had an IFA on last week who said don't sell anything and now was a great time to buy. He said people should look at the longer picture and think 10 years. He said the stock had done very well over the last year. He never mentioned it had been a lot lower 09

It's clearly easy money and it doesn't matter when you buy... just BUY.

Like when they have mortgage brokers on ramping the housing market, it was never mentioned that he has a vested interest gets commission.

Commentators are trying to ramp the market in both directions, on Sky yesterday the commentator claimed the market was toast and the smart money (the large banks) had piled into bonds to see the forthcoming crash out. A bit exteme in view of the correction we have already had IMO.

I wasn't expecting any particualr adjustment today. The EU have kicked the can down the road again with a promise of a two trillion euro bailout fund (basically the Central European bank printing two trillion Euro) and a restructuring of Greek debt with 50% forgiven. The Markets are losing patience but may not throw in the towel just yet.

Edited September 26, 2011 by crashmonitor

[Democorruptcy]

Did he mention the stock market was lower than 10 years ago ? ( or is it 14 years, cant be bothered looking it up, you be better off having bought a lifetime supply of bog-roll 15 years ago ).

No he didn't mention anything about it being lower 10 years ago or dotcom bubbles or bank shares.

He just gave the very clear impression that as long as you thought of it as 10 year investment it was like finding money in the street.

The woman who was feeding him questions just nodded her head at everything he said. I bet she couldn't wait to get to a her PC to start buying. In fact I was surprised she didn't rush out of her chair to her PC and just leave him there questionerless in front of the cameras.

Edited September 26, 2011 by Redhat Sly

[_w_]

The EU have kicked the can down the road again with a promise of a two trillion euro bailout fund (basically the Central European bank printing two trillion Euro) and a restructuring of Greek debt with 50% forgiven.

I'm under the impression they have done no such thing.

Geithner wants this solution because its a quick and easy rip off that gets rid of the problem. The Daily Telegraph is promoting it, but as far as I can tell there is no agreement or promise that such approach will be delivered is there ?

[_w_]

In fact I was surprised she didn't rush out of her chair to her PC and just leave him there questionerless in front of the cameras.

She was probably sending her orders with her blackberry under the desk.

[crashmonitor]

I'm under the impression they have done no such thing.

Geithner wants this solution because its a quick and easy rip off that gets rid of the problem. The Daily Telegraph is promoting it, but as far as I can tell there is no agreement or promise that such approach will be delivered is there ?

Yep should have said proposal rather than promise. And you really can see the Germans not liking this. But it keeps the Markets in limbo, unless they decise to punish this buggering about.

Edited September 26, 2011 by crashmonitor

[MrFlibble]

Did he mention the stock market was lower than 10 years ago ? ( or is it 14 years, cant be bothered looking it up, you be better off having bought a lifetime supply of bog-roll 15 years ago ).

Forced to laugh at work a few weeks ago, the guy next to me was telling me how he was looking at investing in one of these FTSE100 deals that returns money if the index ends higher in five years time. I told him that the index now is lower than it was 12 years ago. Didn't stop him investing though. He'll either end up the zero returns or basically get a cut of the dividends if the index ends higher in 5 years time. These deals are probably OK if you can get them after the ass as dropped out of the market, but I'm sure they're withdrawn prior to any chance appearing that the average punter can see a half decent return on them.

Like you say, investing in boll rolls would be a better bet.

[winkie]

Thanks for checking it, it saves me from having to read it.

So it looks like someone is desperate to get punters, any punters, to come and support this market? Does the Russian owner of the independent have loans collateralised by shares?

Dot com....by any chance?

[The Masked Tulip]

Geithner wants this solution because its a quick and easy rip off that gets rid of the problem. The Daily Telegraph is promoting it, but as far as I can tell there is no agreement or promise that such approach will be delivered is there ?

The constant Euro crisis is a massive festering wound for Obama in an election year. The EU crisis will weigh on the global economy therefore stopping Obama from proclaiming sunny uplands for the American electorate.