Mortgage Approvals Off The Floor

[rantnrave]

British Bankers' Association latest numbers up to 31.7K from 30.2K.

[leicestersq]

British Bankers' Association latest numbers up to 31.7K from 30.2K.

The mighty spring bounce no doubt.

[koala_bear]

Gross mortgage lending of £7.7bn in March was slightly lower than the recent six month average of £7.9bn and 11% lower than gross lending in March 2010.

Despite gross mortgage lending holding up fairly well recently, this is due to stronger remortgage activity rather than new house purchases. However, net mortgage lending increased by only £0.8bn in March, due in part to higher repayments.

House purchase approvals were slightly higher than in February but 10% lower than in March 2010. The average value (£145,400) was 0.5% lower than a year earlier.

Numbers of remortgage approvals in March were 7% lower than the previous month but 1% higher than in March 2010. Approvals for equity withdrawal continue to be weak and were 19% lower than March 2010.

What spring bounce?

Though as the BBC pointed out (badly) this morning the proportion of cash buyers is increasingly important.

Edited April 27, 2011 by koala_bear

[koala_bear]

The mighty spring bounce no doubt.

And down 10% on march last year

[man o' the year]

34.9k same period last year !

[long time lurking]

Buy before we miss the boat

Hang on where`s the engine gone

[Riedquat]

Spring bounce? More like a dying fish flap.

[Pent Up]

And down 10% on march last year

Excellent

[spyguy]

These are cr*p. Shameless that they are trying to spin the figures.

The UK needs about 100K mortgages a month to absorb people exiting the housing market.

Post 2007 there is about 2 years worht of housing stocking going to hit the market.

Combine that with 60% of BTL's (my rough figure of the number of BTL that are losing money) from the 2002-2007 era and we talking about 5 years supply of transaction hitting the market when IRs go up.

Ohh 2012 will be fun.

[The Knimbies who say No]

Gross lending figs for the first three months were lower in 2009, and before that 2001 I think. Forget the seasonally adjusted approvals rubbish, the nsa are 38k vs 42k in March 2010. And, kidz, don't forget these are approvals not advances..

Edited April 27, 2011 by cheeznbreed

[Dorkins]

For so long these lending figures have been incredibly bearish, pointing to 2000-2001 prices and yet selling prices are holding up pretty well. It's like magic.

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

For so long these lending figures have been incredibly bearish, pointing to 2000-2001 prices and yet selling prices are holding up pretty well. It's like magic.

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/house_price_predictor/

[libspero]

Gross lending figs for the first three months were lower in 2009, and before that 2001 I think. Forget the seasonally adjusted approvals rubbish, the nsa are 38k vs 42k in March 2010. And, kidz, don't forget these are approvals not advances..

Wait for the "rabble rabble" of property owners complaining that the banks aren't lending enough to make people want to buy their over priced homes..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fEjJ4Ecy9Q

[FIGGY]

As someone pointed out to me

Mortgage lending remains subdued – The British Bankers' Association has reported that mortgage lending remains subdued with its members approving only 31,660 new mortgages during the 31 days of March, up by 1,482 on the 28-day-long month of February. The BBA said that worries about the economy were depressing bank lending numbers

So LfL thats actually down then!!!!

Edited April 28, 2011 by FIGGY

[uptherebels]

Ohh 2012 will be fun.

I thought that about 2007......and eight, and nine, and ten and eleven.....

[Optobear]

Interesting that the monthly mortgage approvals are a bit less than the annual predicted repossessions from the CML linked from the front page. At this rate of there will be one repossession for every 10 or so mortgages granted... doesn't sound too healthy for house prices.

[Bear Goggles]

The UK needs about 100K mortgages a month to absorb people exiting the housing market.

Really? Do you have a source for this? 100,000 people exiting the mortgage market per month - that sounds like a lot.

[Optobear]

Really? Do you have a source for this? 100,000 people exiting the mortgage market per month - that sounds like a lot.

From a bit of searching it seems that approx 500k people die each year in Britain, around 40k per month. At some point they will exit housing (either in a box, or to a nursing home), and that will free a home. Assume all are couples, then that halves the number, so 20k homes become free per month, and further that only 80% are home owners. That shifts it to 16,000 owned homes per month coming free due to death. So about half of the monthly mortgages.