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Lambie

Nationwide December 2010

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Party's over - get back to producing and consuming

December 2010 328.5 £162,763 0.4

November 2010 327.2 £163,398 -0.3

(Average price actually lower - hurrah for seasonal adjustment)

Links to December and Q4 reports

http://www.nationwid...al/Dec_2010.pdf

http://www.nationwid...cal/Q4_2010.pdf

Edited by Lambie

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Party's over - get back to producing and consuming

December 2010 328.5 £162,763 0.4

November 2010 327.2 £163,398 -0.3

(Average price actually lower - hurrah for seasonal adjustment)

Links to reports - don't seem to be working yet

http://www.nationwid...al/Dec_2010.pdf

http://www.nationwid...cal/Q4_2010.pdf

This seasonal adjustment is really taking the piss now! Everytime it's used to spin negative figures, it would be great if someone had time to go through all of the figures for the last 5 years and working from the Jan06 price, work out what the actual price would be if they purely manipulated it by the seasonally adjusted percentage!

I think Nationwide have also been known to adjust there figures the month after.

PS, typical BBC, they have a nice big bit on there business bulleting at 0715, couldn't listen to it though as I couldn't find the remote control.

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This seasonal adjustment is really taking the piss now! Everytime it's used to spin negative figures, it would be great if someone had time to go through all of the figures for the last 5 years and working from the Jan06 price, work out what the actual price would be if they purely manipulated it by the seasonally adjusted percentage!

I think Nationwide have also been known to adjust there figures the month after.

PS, typical BBC, they have a nice big bit on there business bulleting at 0715, couldn't listen to it though as I couldn't find the remote control.

down is up, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength

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Just to note, as per the other thread, they are actually down 0.4% for the month.

This is prior to Nationwide fiddling it, though you won't find the actual figure in the BBC report.

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on the PDF report, they have the last 2 years of SA'd figures.

This months price is £162763, yet if I work it out using the SA percentages starting in Dec08 the price is £161490, they've seasonally adjusted over £1500 of the average price in the last 2 years, that's a sign of inherent bias!

Edit, I've just done some sums on there historic numbers and over all (we're talking 5 years) the bias is tiny, however it does generally lower the pertentage number whether it's a negative of positive figure.

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/downloads/Monthly.xls

Edited by Pauly_Boy

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Q3 167354

Q4 163244

I make that a 2.5% drop quarter to quarter.

We now have the full years numbers, so I can finish my graph off. Where have I seen that before?

Capture.PNG

post-13143-0-03305600-1293782145_thumb.png

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Although it's annoying that the beeb have jumped on this straight away & given it a polished turd of a headline, it's stil a bearish article.

Soothing words of wisdom from chief 'economist' martin:

"Despite December's increase, house prices have fallen in four out of the last six months and it would be premature to suggest that the recent downward trend has been broken on the basis of one month's figures," said the building society's chief economist Martin Gahbauer.

Edited by Caveman

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It will be good when they start seasonally adjusting them in the opposite direction. Does anybody know when this will be?

The first sign will be cows brandishing return train tickets...

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From the BBC...

House prices ended the year barely higher than they started, according to the latest survey from the Nationwide building society.

It says prices rose by 0.4% in December, leaving them also 0.4% up on a year ago.

Ho, ho, ho...

Recently saw a house go up in for sale my old manor, same house I sold a few years back. The price they are asking is slightly above the peak 2007 price. Another one, probably the finest example of such a house went up earlier in the year for 5% less than peak. It disappeared off RightMove for about a month but is now back on.

I watch my old manor closely because I know it inside and out, good areas, bad areas, previous highs, etc. My conclusion is the market is completely deformed. The FTB stuff seems to be stubbornly high, but the £200-300k stuff seems to be dropping nicely. Cannot comment on the £300k plus houses as I rarely look that high.

I expected the FTB stuff to be leading the way but that is not what I'm seeing. The general area is Milton Keynes if anyone is interested.

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It will be good when they start seasonally adjusting them in the opposite direction. Does anybody know when this will be?

Looking at previous years.....

Nov 09 £162,764

Dec 09 £162,103

a £659 fall in prices was reported as a 0.4% increase in prices.

(Incidentally the average price for December 10 is £1 lower than Nov 09)

In March this year prices rose from £161,320 to £164,519 and this was only reported as 0.7% increase.

So your answer is they only do the increase seasonal adjustment the other way when prices are rising enough to 'put a bit back'.

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I'm willing to be corrected, I did a very quick calculation using their own figures, but it seems to me that December typically shows an increase in price over November, before seasonal adjustment. Arguably, the seasonal adjustment should make the change more negative.

Since 1991 only 95, 96, 04, 07, 08, 09 and 10 are negative.

Only 5 out of 20 Nov -> Dec returns are lower than 2010, and three of those are 2007, 2008 and 2009.

Average non adjusted Nov -> Dec return is +0.1%, since 1991, and +0.24% since 2000.

Anyone like to confirm?

I realise this is not how they do the seasonal adjustment, but it does seem strange.

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The average UK house costs the same as it did 56 months ago, and has risen by 3.5% over the past 5 years. Give it a few more months and the 5 year change will almost certainly be negative. That should be a headline.

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Party's over - get back to producing and consuming

December 2010 328.5 £162,763 0.4

November 2010 327.2 £163,398 -0.3

(Average price actually lower - hurrah for seasonal adjustment)

WTF????

so how does this VI "seasonal adjustment" actualy work then?

I mean what's the maths that turns this negative into a positive?

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@davidcameron 3.5% over 5 years and O.4% yoy.

Even with my house-buying deposit in cash I've out-performed housing.

And next year looks just as good.

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Commenting on the figures Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said:

However, the December figures do underscore the fact the current downtrend is only very modest, particularly when seen in comparison to the second half of 2008. During this period, the three month rate of change dropped to as low as -5.5%.

But Martin, you appear to be comparing these figures with those from late 2008, when price falls had accelerated - surely as an economist, you know that's not a very robust comparison?

Perhaps it would be fairer to compare like-with-like - I'll do the honours, shall I:

So, we are 6 months on from the second peak (June 2010) - and since then prices have dropped 4.3%.

Now what about 6 months from the first peak (Oct 2007) - oh, it appears prices were down a similar amount, 4%

So I guess it could be argued that we are following a very similar trajectory as the first half of the crash ie when prices dropped circa 20% ;)

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But Martin, you appear to be comparing these figures with those from late 2008, when price falls had accelerated - surely as an economist, you know that's not a very robust comparison?

Perhaps it would be fairer to compare like-with-like - I'll do the honours, shall I:

So, we are 6 months on from the second peak (June 2010) - and since then prices have dropped 4.3%.

Now what about 6 months from the first peak (Oct 2007) - oh, it appears prices were down a similar amount, 4%

So I guess it could be argued that we are following a very similar trajectory as the first half of the crash ie when prices dropped circa 20% ;)

Nice. :)

EDIT to add: Feb 2009 was the recent bottom, 16 months after the Oct 2007 peak. If prices were to follow a similar trajectory now (just a possibility), the next bottom would be 16 months after this past peak on June 2010, meaning Oct 2011.

Of course history never repeats itself exactly. This is just (or mainly) a bit of fun really.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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But Martin, you appear to be comparing these figures with those from late 2008, when price falls had accelerated - surely as an economist, you know that's not a very robust comparison?

Perhaps it would be fairer to compare like-with-like - I'll do the honours, shall I:

So, we are 6 months on from the second peak (June 2010) DEAD CAT BOUNCE - and since then prices have dropped 4.3%.

Now what about 6 months from the first peak (Oct 2007) - oh, it appears prices were down a similar amount, 4%

So I guess it could be argued that we are following a very similar trajectory as the first half of the crash ie when prices dropped circa 20% ;)

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BBC were quick off the mark, but had to give "balance". Har har.

Was this the same company that didn't even bother reporting the massive decrease recently even though those figures produced one of the biggest recent threads on this forum?

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-31/u-k-home-prices-unexpectedly-rose-in-december-nationwide-says.html

Nationwide’s report of a house-price gain
contrasts with other data
that show values are declining as the prospect of 330,000 public-sector job cuts during the biggest government budget squeeze since World War II hurts demand for housing. Hometrack Ltd. said earlier this week that prices fell for a sixth month in December and may decline 2 percent next year.

Nationwide are a one-of-a-kind that is for sure. :D

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  • 277 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
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      • up 5%



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