Right Move.....the Recovery Is Here!

[Mega]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aOp1dlynxT3g

Home price jumped a MASSIVE 0.6 % V a 2.2% fall last month.

What Planet are they on?

Mike

[MRMX9]

Can anyone explain why Rightmove say the average price of a home if £223,000 but Halifax say its only £165,000 - why the £60k difference.

Up or down you wonder if any of these house price figures have any credibility.

[Lambie]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aOp1dlynxT3g

Home price jumped a MASSIVE 0.6 % V a 2.2% fall last month.

What Planet are they on?

Mike

I don't know why, but I sent him an email for shits and giggles, i'll post if I get a reply.

Hi Brian,

I'm writing to you to ask for a correction your article which is at http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aOp1dlynxT3g because you are reporting that "The average cost of a home increased 0.6 percent to 223,996 pounds ($364,000)" with reference to Rightmove. I would point out that Rightmove are merely a company which lists ASKING prices, the actual average selling prices (as measured by Halifax and Nationwide indices) are around 160000 GBP, and these sales are only occuring at over 50% below a level which some economic experts (if there is such a thing) consider to be necessary for a stable market.

I wouldn't normally ask for a correction to an article, this misconception is after all prevalent throughout the UK mainstream media, however the forums of www.housepricecrash.co.uk do have a healthy respect of Bloomberg which they consider better than most. There is often lots of in depth analysis of the UK housing market on the forum, although currently they are mostly presently preparing for world war 3 and the hoarding of baked beans, so now might not be a good time to visit.

I'm one of the many who simply want affordable housing for everyone, I didn't ask for armageddon.

Good luck with your continued articles.

[Lambie]

Can anyone explain why Rightmove say the average price of a home if £223,000 but Halifax say its only £165,000 - why the £60k difference.

Up or down you wonder if any of these house price figures have any credibility.

because rightmove has asking prices.

[squire]

I don't know why, but I sent him an email for shits and giggles, i'll post if I get a reply.

Hi Brian,

I'm writing to you to ask for a correction your article which is at http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aOp1dlynxT3g because you are reporting that "The average cost of a home increased 0.6 percent to 223,996 pounds ($364,000)" with reference to Rightmove. I would point out that Rightmove are merely a company which lists ASKING prices, the actual average selling prices (as measured by Halifax and Nationwide indices) are around 160000 GBP, and these sales are only occuring at over 50% below a level which some economic experts (if there is such a thing) consider to be necessary for a stable market.

I wouldn't normally ask for a correction to an article, this misconception is after all prevalent throughout the UK mainstream media, however the forums of www.housepricecrash.co.uk do have a healthy respect of Bloomberg which they consider better than most. There is often lots of in depth analysis of the UK housing market on the forum, although currently they are mostly presently preparing for world war 3 and the hoarding of baked beans, so now might not be a good time to visit.

I'm one of the many who simply want affordable housing for everyone, I didn't ask for armageddon.

Good luck with your continued articles.

If you haven't got your baked beans now you've missed the boat!!

[Dubai]

Lets be serious here for a moment.

Are Rightmove any worse than you lot on here?

I remember about a year ago a big thread going something like this...

' Ladies and Gentlemen the crash is here'

Do you remember it?

Loads of people giving it the biggun.....

' Oh yes I think 70% off peak is fair now'

Need I go on?

I'm asking you now seriously.

Do you honestly think there has or will be a HPC in the near future? Say next 5 years?

One year or more has passed since you all posted 'It's here'.

Can you buy any house you wanted at 40%+ off?

Reality.

From where I'm sitting house prices have maybe dropped 10% from 2007 peak.

Better than average properties haven't dropped anything and in fact asking prices are up on 2007 prices.

House prices are rising.

Mortgage approvals are rising.

Banks lending.

Who's the fools?

Please answer me seriously.

Do you honestly believe you are going to see 40% or more come off houses in the next 5 years?

You are, Sibley.

[MarkG]

Do you honestly think there has or will be a HPC in the near future? Say next 5 years?

The collapsing pound alone has knocked around 20% off of British house prices in real terms, regardless of how much prices have dropped in pound terms... and that's before the next government has to slash spending by 20%, which certainly won't be good for areas reliant on pampered Guardian readers in non-jobs.

BTW, I heard today that a couple of friends who were going to buy a house to move into after they got married had to pull out because the buyers of both of their houses pulled out. So doesn't look too much like things are booming.

[Dubai]

Why is that then?

Because I won't agree with your idea of house prices crashing?

I say what I see.

I get stick on here for speaking the truth.

It won't be long before lending goes back to how it was. We like it and the country makes money.

Sibley, don't take offense. None was intended. I admire you for having the balls to come on here with a contrarian point of view. Yes, you do get stick, and you still come back, that takes a certain amount of guts.

However, I still think you are "foolish" because you don't seem to be able to recognise a couple of home truths.....

People cannot afford to pay 5 times their gross annual income for a roof over their heads... period. It's true interest rates are low now, and that has been the media's explanation for 'affordability'..... but that won't stay forever... rates have got to go back up.

Secondly, it doesn't do anyone any good that such a large percentage of take home pay has to be spent on shelter... after all, what an Englishman considers his castle, the rest of the world considers a bricks and mortar structure... it's just a house!

The fact that some people are willing to buy a grotty sh1thole for 5 years income, before tax (about 8 years after) is totally nuts. I'd rather live in a tent.

[ingermany]

Why is that then?

About a year or so ago you had a chance of a crash. If the government hadn't moved the goalposts and left things as they were it was looking lik it could happen.

Yes, they did move the goalposts. Unfortunately, they forgot to get an estimate first, and the people hired to do the moving had never seen a football pitch before.

[ingermany]

It won't be long before lending goes back to how it was. We like it and the country makes money.

I know this goes against coventional wisdom but, I do not think that rising prices "make the country money".

The cost of the 2012 Olympics has shot up from 2.4 to 8 billion pounds. Has that made the country 3 times as wealthy? I suspect it just means we have to borrow more. I can't see how it can make us richer.

[Bloo Loo]

so there we have it, Sibley is a Nulabor stoolie. house prices up=supported by more lending=more wealth. debt is wealth. we MUST be wealthy BECAUSE we can afford the debt.

proof.

not a troll, a stoolie.

[Chest Rockwell]

Who's the fools?

Please answer me seriously.

Do you honestly believe you are going to see 40% or more come off houses in the next 5 years?

You

P1ss off idiot

yes and more!

[munners]

Fact is there are more bears than bulls on this site.

Im a bear and I believe that in my area prices will come down next year. My area really hasnt been affected at all by the ''crash''. Its only lack of stock and the influence of the dead cat bounce that has seen it rally here. Its all false.

Reality is around the corner. There are so many factors that COULD upset the applecart ie further unemployment and the General Election result. Its all to close to call but common sense shows that prices must drop further.

We had a facinating conversation on Sat night which unfortunately led to a heated arguement amongst good friends.

Surely the only people benefiting from the BOE's current base rate are borrowers who's fixed rate has now expired? The are floating just above base and would have seen their payments slashed by more than one half. GREAT. This is where it gets interesting.

For these particular people, for which there are thousands, who in their right mind would now try and get remortgaged on a new fixed rate, 2-3 year deal of between 4-6%?? I wouldnt!!!!! What happens when this rate expires in 2 years time and the BOE have decided to increase base and the lenders have decided to increase their fixed rates? People could easily see their mortgages double. It is possible for lenders to be offering 2 year fixed at 8% in 2 years time. Its very possible. This is why I believe people have decided to sell up, get out and downsize. The vast majority of buyers in my area are downsizers.

This is why I believe there has been a resurgence in the market. The thick people who bagged 3% fixed rates with the Abbey 3 months ago have taken a hugh risk IMO. Its a smoke screen and a quick fix. It looks good at the the time but it will look horrific in 2 years time once rates have risen and the market would have fallen further. How are they going to afford to pay once their payments could have trebled? This is why the market STILL wont adjust for years to come. Its gonna be a very bumpy few years.

Bulls are too bullish at the mo. Its too early to call it yet.

Edited September 21, 2009 by munners

[the flying pig]

there was one very pleasing aspect of today's rightmove headlines:

...there were around 20% fewer estate agents branches now compared with a year earlier...

sweeet.

given that the branches which have survived must have made at least some cuts we must be talking about at least one quarter of all people who were EAs this time last year having left the 'profession' without being replaced. that alone is something to raise our glasses to...

[Legal_Landlord]

Im a bear and I believe that in my area prices will come down next year. My area really hasnt been affected at all by the ''crash''. Its only lack of stock and the influence of the dead cat bounce that has seen it rally here. Its all false.

I think the point Sibley was making is that prices have dropped but no where near the 40% + drop that the bears on here were saying.Some repo flats have dropped massively but 40% is not the norm.

[Alfie Moon]

Have you looked at the Rightmove September pdf file report yet?

7 out of 10 regions had asking prices fall. Only 3 regions (all in the South East corner) had rises.

The overall figure seems rather distorted by one of the 3 regions that recorded asking price rises for September - namely East Anglia that saw asking prices rise by 8.4%!!!!! What the F*** is going on in East Anglia??????

I haven't done the calculation but it would be interesting to see what the average is for the 9 regions without this outlier figure coming from East Anglia.

Me thinks things aren't quite as 'good' for the bulls as Sibley would hope.

[munners]

Repo flats will always drop massively.

I think Sibley is correct but I would like to know where Sibley is in the UK?

If you take current prices then prices are the same as in 2007 in my area. They did drop by 15% last year but this bounce has seen prices come back up.

However ALL of the property currently on the market is stock that has been on for months and months. People will still not REDUCE their price so they wont sell. Its simple. Houses are still overpriced and vendors are unrealistic.

If EA's valued their houses now at a realistic value in order to sell I bet the vendors would take them off the market! Vendors are still trapped in 2007.

[Realistbear]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aOp1dlynxT3g

Home price jumped a MASSIVE 0.6 % V a 2.2% fall last month.

What Planet are they on?

Mike

Theiranus

House prices fall when:

1. Unemployment rises

2. Credit tightens

The VIs are just talking the market up as they believe its all in the mind. Just the reason why Brown thinks his mess will all go away if people would only take on more debt.

[awaytogo]

Lets be serious here for a moment.

Are Rightmove any worse than you lot on here?

I remember about a year ago a big thread going something like this...

' Ladies and Gentlemen the crash is here'

Do you remember it?

Loads of people giving it the biggun.....

' Oh yes I think 70% off peak is fair now'

Need I go on?

I'm asking you now seriously.

Do you honestly think there has or will be a HPC in the near future? Say next 5 years?

One year or more has passed since you all posted 'It's here'.

Can you buy any house you wanted at 40%+ off?

Reality.

From where I'm sitting house prices have maybe dropped 10% from 2007 peak.

Better than average properties haven't dropped anything and in fact asking prices are up on 2007 prices.

House prices are rising.

Mortgage approvals are rising.

Banks lending.

Who's the fools?

Please answer me seriously.

Do you honestly believe you are going to see 40% or more come off houses in the next 5 years?

Can i ask you a question SIBLEY if you are so confident in your beliefs why are you on this site.

[Alfie Moon]

Have you looked at the Rightmove September pdf file report yet?

7 out of 10 regions had asking prices fall. Only 3 regions (all in the South East corner) had rises.

The overall figure seems rather distorted by one of the 3 regions that recorded asking price rises for September - namely East Anglia that saw asking prices rise by 8.4%!!!!! What the F*** is going on in East Anglia??????

I haven't done the calculation but it would be interesting to see what the average is for the 9 regions without this outlier figure coming from East Anglia.

Me thinks things aren't quite as 'good' for the bulls as Sibley would hope.

Yep, if you remove East Anglia from the equation and average the remaining 9 regions the average = -0.6% asking price fall for September.

[Sybil13]

Have you looked at the Rightmove September pdf file report yet?

7 out of 10 regions had asking prices fall. Only 3 regions (all in the South East corner) had rises.

The overall figure seems rather distorted by one of the 3 regions that recorded asking price rises for September - namely East Anglia that saw asking prices rise by 8.4%!!!!! What the F*** is going on in East Anglia??????

I haven't done the calculation but it would be interesting to see what the average is for the 9 regions without this outlier figure coming from East Anglia.

Me thinks things aren't quite as 'good' for the bulls as Sibley would hope.

And then there was the bit that said:

Shipside adds: “Many aspiring sellers could face years trapped in their homes until values rise enough for

them to join the equity-rich club, and even then they will be heavily dependent on the number of bottomof-

the-chain first-time-buyers. Confidence is up, stock is down, and the number of people searching is

high. There are lots of positives but too few buyers can put down the 40% deposits that are needed in

order to secure the best mortgage deals. Finance greases the wheels of the property market, and it is

anybody’s guess when we might see the necessary level of competitive funding return. Frustrated homehunters

should note the expected ten year timetable to wind up Lehman Brothers, giving a clear

indication of the time required to rebuild the banking system.â€[/quote]

[spline]

FWIW, here’s today’s Rightmove charted and with the seasonal adjustment added.

[Alfie Moon]

The 3 regions recording a rise are:

East Anglia - +8.4%

South East - +1.5%

Greater London - +0.9%

The 7 regions recording a fall are:

North - -0.3%

North West - -0.7%

Yorks & Humberside - -3.6%

East Mids - -0.2%

South West - -0.8%

Wales - -1.8%

W.Mids - -0.5%

So 70% of the country has got falling asking prices.

[non frog]

Can anyone explain why Rightmove say the average price of a home if £223,000 but Halifax say its only £165,000 - why the £60k difference.

Up or down you wonder if any of these house price figures have any credibility.

House price average £223K Property price average £165K. Latter includes flats. Overall property falls 30% (or whatever it is now) includes flats - flat prices outside the south east have fallen off a cliff. House prices have fallen slightly and in some places are now above 2007 prices.

The devil is in the detail and a very, very large number of posters here don't see it so misunderstand what is going on. Speculative BTL is dead and the new build flats aimed at that market are unsellable. I think (and this is very much a theory TBH) that sector may hold the clue as to where the next move goes. I have been watching some new builds that have been empty for two years (builder is bankrupt - PWC are handling the credits - local EA selling the properties). A friend of a friend bought two flats and was given a third one for nothing, but the asking prices remain stupid (over 200K). At some point (I think) the creditors must get fed up waiting and instruct PWC to auction them off. My guess is they would maybe fetch 90K at the minute if sold via that route, but if things carry on getting worse maybe only 60K. Sadly nearby towns are back at 2007 prices so who knows they might even sell the damn things?

[RandomBear]

I'm 99% sure you are wrong on that last point and the rightmove survey includes flats.

The difference is twofold a) asking price vs selling price a lot of higher end purchasers don't use mortgages.

Average price of houses that sell is higher than that of houses that require mortgages (i.e. captured by Hali-wide).