IMHAL Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Yes, I have been on the pop - I bought some really soda tasting lager from Sainsburys but spat it out so bad it was... and then poured all 10 bottles down the sink....US housing in Feb 2009 were 18% lower than in Feb 2008. UK housing in Feb 2009 were 16.50% lower than in Feb 2008. The difference is that the major US house centres that actually saw the bubble - such as Florida and California - are seeing YOY falls in the 30 plus percent range. The figures are only brought down when averaged out with all the states which actually didn't see much of a housing bubble. We ain't seeing the pain here in the UK. We are not seeing people desperate to sell in anywhere near the same numbers that exist in the US. My advise is -.........Buy quality not quantity - strong beer like Adnams Broadside - 6.5% ABV - yum yum. There is no doubt that we are well into the false hope stage and the next leg down will have to be severe - otherwise we will have to accept that the next event will be hyperinflation and the UK will be a place not worth living in. Then at least we will have nothing to lose by leaving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graeme Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 The reason that there's not an apparent drop in house values is that the asking price has remained fairly constant. Spending a bit of time on Rightmove with Property Bee will show this... At the same time a lot of places are getting relisted so it appears that they've only been on the market for a few weeks. If you look at Rightmove's index of asking prices, the average peaked in late 2007 at around 245K, dropped to 215K over Christmas, before "recovering" to 225K recently. I'm not sure if you can draw the conclusion that asking prices are around 30% higher than they should be. The Halifax, Nationawide and Land Registry all process their data, whereas Rightmove might be using a simple average. However, it does show that asking prices haven't fallen at anything like the rate that selling prices have. And that could be the problem. So I'd be more interested in knowing what's selling. Quick anecdote: Someone I know put in offers on two properties recently. Both have similar amounts of living and garden space, are within 150 metres (about a tenth of a mile) of each other, and had the same asking price. One was in excellent condition, whereas the other needed some work doing. It turned out that both vendors were looking for the same sort of money. So the better of the two houses sold. This would seem to illustrate two points: With low volumes the good stuff at the right price is selling. This might actually drive up average prices, as both properties in my anecdote will probably be considered the same by Nationwide. Vendors need to lower the expectations. That's not happening yet, and the recent headlines speaking of a recovery won't be helping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haventaclue Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 you split hairs, it was £1.99 per pound. I pay them £1.99 for every pound i borrow. I was looking at houses around the £220-250 mark., so, on £250, thats as good as half a million. It was that realisation that led me to decide not to borrow. Also, the fact that they should earn half a million quid from a 30 minute conversation.OK, i wanted to get a cheaper property, say £180, and yes, it wouldn't have been half a million, but your splitting hairs if you argue my point, thats alot of money considering if houses were not over priced i could afford to buy one, straight off. its all engineered to keep people nailed to the floor, chained to their jobs, fixed cogs in the evil machine. I intend to buy 100% or with totally minimum risk, say max of 5 years payback window. oh, £50k or so, giving me a budget of £55-120k oooh wow, soooo exciting. Quilckly turns to righmove and does a search for houses in JARROW, tha ******** passage of our nation. Im still not getting it? I cant seem to make the jump from (even on a a£250k mortgage) interest paid to the banks of £140k to your half a million? Is it that your including the cost of the purchase? If so, my point is that if someone sold at £220k it would cost you it total £316k to buy at 2007 rates. To buy today a £160k place will cost you £309k...... Not a huge difference to the buyer but the bank makes £20k more on the cheaper house........ (I know all very simplistic and I know we cant calculate over the life of the loan etc etc so befor you all jump in a give 'real' calculations, my point is that the cheaper housing goes, the more banks will make, and us as end buyers will spend just as much..............) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 The sooner bears realise theyll be paying the banks far more for their cheapo houses the better..................... Why can you not see that the logical conclusion of that is that houses will continue to go down in price? They are not 'cheap' yet by any means. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agmoldham Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 You know, we post hundreds of articles from Economists on here each week saying how dire the global economy, how much mess the banks are in, how unemployment is rising and how things are going to get much worse despite all this QE that is going on and...We even have figures from the LR saying that the average price of a house has fallen in price YOY but... The stock markets are soaring and seemingly few of us, perhaps none of use, are actually seeing any substantial falls in asking prices in our areas. UK unemployment is on the up but UK house prices are staying stubbornly high and the FTSE is chasing the DOW and NASDAQ upwards. It just doesn't make sense. In the US, Spain and Eire house prices have absolutely tanked - can you imagine how happy many of us would be feeling now if we were seeing the same thing here in the UK? But we ain't - it just is not happening and, as a long-term bear of many years, I am getting fed up now. I still think there is global shock coming but the previous global shocks have done s*d all to UK house prices even though they decimate the HPs in other countries. Even if the FTSE went down by 50% would it have any real affect on the UK house price madness! Maybe I need to be the last bear to turn bull so that this giant ponzi scheme can come crashing down. The mentality of the British people maintains house prices above the price that they should be. This has been the case for the last 50 years and will continue in the future. The type of falls (50%+) that some people on here expect to happen, should happen, but will not because house prices do not behave logically. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 The mentality of the British people maintains house prices above the price that they should be. This has been the case for the last 50 years and will continue in the future. The type of falls (50%+) that some people on here expect to happen, should happen, but will not because house prices do not behave logically. Simply not true. In the 90s property prices were below the level that they 'should' have been and so they will be again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 (edited) We ain't seeing the pain here in the UK. We are not seeing people desperate to sell in anywhere near the same numbers that exist in the US. It's the interest rates, the fact the MPs all own 4 houses and the up coming general election, they've tried to buy/not loose the populare vote by keeping prices up. The media is being manipulated and people believe what they are told. Dont buy before the first budget after the next election... Till then, kick back with some better beers and watch the farce that is the UK housing market/gorvernment. PS gorvernment is a typo, but i like it so have left it in Edited May 31, 2009 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pie-eater Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Simply not true. In the 90s property prices were below the level that they 'should' have been and so they will be again. Indeed. The golden overshoot many are waiting for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50%deposit Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Im still not getting it? I cant seem to make the jump from (even on a a£250k mortgage) interest paid to the banks of £140k to your half a million? Is it that your including the cost of the purchase? If so, my point is that if someone sold at £220k it would cost you it total £316k to buy at 2007 rates. To buy today a £160k place will cost you £309k...... Not a huge difference to the buyer but the bank makes £20k more on the cheaper house........(I know all very simplistic and I know we cant calculate over the life of the loan etc etc so befor you all jump in a give 'real' calculations, my point is that the cheaper housing goes, the more banks will make, and us as end buyers will spend just as much..............) apologies if i sound unhinged. for every pound i borrowed, i paid £1.99 back. so if i borrowed £1 i paid a total of £2.99 back at the end of the mortgage. Black and white. That was on the official paperwork. They called it something official, that was the payback rate. i cant find it now as my place is a total mess, but there was 2 years at 5% and then 23 years at 7% or something like that. I cant remember how much. To be honest, it was my first time and im alot more familiar with stuff now. I tried to get other quotes but no one would touch me. The idea of a liar loan was not in my field of vision. i would have lied my ass off, to be honest, i dont care. The woman at Nationwide was really rude. She basically spent the whole time trying to count my debt, which i didn't have, and patronised me with a nice offer that i could buy a nice flat with. I wish i had killed her by smashing her head against the table until she stopped breathing, but i definatly wouldn't have got a mortgage then. im going to make an offer in a few moments, i feel a tingling. lol -40% thank you very much. regards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kazuya Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 We ain't seeing the pain here in the UK. We are not seeing people desperate to sell in anywhere near the same numbers that exist in the US. That's due to the BoE QE'ing like no tommorow and interest rates being low. All part of Gordon Brown's plan to plaster over the cracks until the general election. Just be patient. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 At the same time a lot of places are getting relisted so it appears that they've only been on the market for a few weeks. Time on Market data, total fabrication. Here's just a sample form Propertysnake. (First 3 randomly picked entries from the front page) date event 08 Jul 2008 First day listed (price £104,975) 30 Oct 2008 Status changed from listed to delisted 05 Nov 2008 Status changed from delisted to listed 18 Dec 2008 Status changed from listed to delisted 20 Dec 2008 Status changed from delisted to listed 15 Feb 2009 Status changed from listed to delisted 04 Mar 2009 Status changed from delisted to listed 15 Mar 2009 Price changed from £104,975 to £94,500 02 Apr 2009 Status changed from listed to delisted 23 Apr 2009 Price changed from £94,500 to £84,500 Status changed from delisted to listed 08 May 2009 Status changed from listed to delisted 14 May 2009 Price changed from £84,500 to £79,995 Status changed from delisted to listed 21 May 2009 Price changed from £79,995 to £58,000 date event 23 May 2008 First day listed (price £495,000) 17 Jul 2008 Price changed from £495,000 to £395,000 08 Feb 2009 Price changed from £395,000 to £295,000 01 Mar 2009 Status changed from listed to delisted 05 Mar 2009 Status changed from delisted to listed 22 Mar 2009 Price changed from £295,000 to £275,000 date event 23 Jul 2008 First day listed (price £86,625) 25 Sep 2008 Price changed from £86,625 to £68,625 26 Nov 2008 Price changed from £68,625 to £61,875 08 Feb 2009 Status changed from listed to delisted 25 Feb 2009 Status changed from delisted to listed 28 Feb 2009 Price changed from £61,875 to £48,125 23 Apr 2009 Status changed from listed to delisted 21 May 2009 Price changed from £48,125 to £46,375 Status changed from delisted to listed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juvenal Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Who sets the price of a house?. The seller, or the EA advising them? The answer can only be the EA. The seller who absolutely insists on a given figure, against the EA's valuation must be in a minority. EA's are responsible for the level of house prices. Not 'the British public' or anyone else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50%deposit Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 That's due to the BoE QE'ing like no tommorow and interest rates being low.All part of Gordon Brown's plan to plaster over the cracks until the general election. Just be patient. im 20 years patient. im just worried i'll end up a patient, one way or another. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pie-eater Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Who sets the price of a house?. The seller, or the EA advising them?The answer can only be the EA. The seller who absolutely insists on a given figure, against the EA's valuation must be in a minority. EA's are responsible for the level of house prices. Not 'the British public' or anyone else. Inded. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=115167 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okaycuckoo Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 That's due to the BoE QE'ing like no tommorow and interest rates being low.All part of Gordon Brown's plan to plaster over the cracks until the general election. Just be patient. So much impatience on this thread. Very sad for people at the "buy now" stage in their lives. This collapse is going to carry on for years, and will fool a lot of prudent people. Shitty way to manage the economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 The mentality of the British people maintains house prices above the price that they should be. This has been the case for the last 50 years and will continue in the future. The type of falls (50%+) that some people on here expect to happen, should happen, but will not because house prices do not behave logically. They only got to those levels because of the predominance of weird and wonderful loans. Now theyre gone, prices cant go back up to those levels. And, god forbid, if interest rates rise, which obviously is the only way they can go, the falls will be huge. Peoples love of property is irrelevant. If they dont qualify for the loan its nothing more than a dream. Loans in the US are typically similar in rates to the UK, if anything a bit lower, the term lengths are the same, and wages arent that different. Its not simply by chance we eventually follow the Californian market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threetimesdead Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 id be the first to say this HPC is bogus. The 'drops' are irrelevent in the big picture. house prices were hidesously expensive, now they are fractionally less hideous.considering the time scales, i dont think i'll live long enough to ever benefit from any HPC. It needs to be now. it needs to have been 5 years ago. oh, so crappy flats that were £400k are now £300k... big deal, wake me up when they are £45k. Just because you can produce stats and figures saying this and that, a simple trawl through Right Move will demonstrate that houses are still hidesouly expensive. its the system. Multiple ownerships should not be allowed, loans for homes should not be allowed, ownership should be 100% across the board. Houses should be easily traded in like crappy cars. People that go on holidays should stay in licenced tourist accomodation, be it hotel or cottage, NOT A SECOND HOME. if these simple things were done prices would come right down and people would not feel the need to enslave their lives to paying for something they probably dont even like. we have a problem, people are now in debt. Their houses are worth nothing, and we have to suffer because they got on the greed train. I had the option to get a £220k mortgage in 2007 and i looked at the figures and said, thats not right, that means i pay the bank half a million pounds for the privalidge of doing that. WRONG WRONG WRONG. Now i am determined to buy out right, as i have done in the US, unfortunatly that means moving to a crap area. meanwhile, all the villains that are endebting society to the hilt are living in the nice areas. Its wrong. the HPC is a scam. i could type forever, it makes me sooo mad!! gggggggggggggrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr im really angry, but theres no more letters on my keyboard to type, its run out of letters, all i can do is type rubbish. i'll go mad before i can afford a place to live. i need it now, not in 20 years time. You can and should buy a one-way tkt - back in the 70s they use to give them for a tenner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50%deposit Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 You can and should buy a one-way tkt - back in the 70s they use to give them for a tenner ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threetimesdead Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 im 20 years patient.im just worried i'll end up a patient, one way or another. The falls are natural, well overdue and are happening But the system is being (temporarily) stabilised by extremely low interest rates (historically unknown by the mortgage market rates - just as unic as the securitasations of the 2001-2007 were) and by delays to repos The 2007 prices will not be back for 20 years, butr if you have already wasted 20 years of your life you must be around 40 and that is your last chance to get out - you will be too old in 5-7 years to do so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairies Wear Boots Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 It would be so useful if posters could give a general idea of their location. Time after time people go, it's not happening around here and I go to all the trouble of looking at their details only to find that they don't list where they are. Everyone should put where they are or stop making those type of statements! And as for the original posters impatience, I feel it to. Seeing some houses on findaproperty for a whole ten percent less than peak and knowing that some of them must also be accepting 5 percent off asking to isn't really fast enough for my liking. Especially when you see houses advertised at Foxtons 2009 prices ( 2007 plus some more). I browse findaproperty, see houses just listed and then have a look at prices for the road, only to find the asking price is over the current highest price acheived for the road. OK, they are deluded. But I really would like to slap those people. I've been looking in Se22. The current Allsops auction catalog has one paltry lot for this area. And it's normally like that. I want some Nevada HPC action! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted May 31, 2009 Author Share Posted May 31, 2009 I want some Nevada HPC action! True ruddy right! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pie-eater Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Hitchin. My house was 'valued' at £235k by a desperate EA nov 08. Put on @ £225k. Offer accepted of £165k Feb 09 'cos I could and wanted to get off. The EA advised I hold off and only take £190+ as it would devalue the street. I said, "****** the street". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 (edited) Just a note on interest rates....they are only low if you were signed up to a good tracker deal. Normal FTBs can get anything much below 5% so cant buy , btw. that's why i resent them giving me 1% on my savings, and people will soon be coming off their trackers deals and well....its a matter of time till we have carnage...about 2 weeks after the next general election IMHO P.S. My area, Northamptonshire, usually search on NN1 + 10 miles. Definte falls, top end starting to plumment, the number of rental propertys on the market have gone up about 5% per month for 6 months but are starting to come back on the sales market. PPS. These are facts, not some VI made up spin. Deal in facts, that way you wont be buying dreams. Edited May 31, 2009 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted May 31, 2009 Author Share Posted May 31, 2009 Just a note on interest rates....they are only low if you were signed up to a good tracker deal. Normal FTBs can get anything much below 5% so cant buy , btw. that's why i resent them giving me 1% on my savings, and people will soon be coming off their trackers deals and well....its a matter of time till we have carnage...about 2 weeks after the next general election IMHO The general election is 12 months away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threetimesdead Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 The general election is 12 months away. Price stability for the next 12 months then Who cares - 10 years up, 2 years down, 1 year flat, 15 years down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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