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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by agmoldham

  1. We've done this for the past couple of years now, so it's time to look into the crystal ball again ... 2010 Predictions 2009 Predictions Although my 2009 prediction was (in common with everyone else) pretty useless it seems that my 2010 prediction was on the money (if you round to the nearest thousand!) Anyway looking forward to 2011 I suspect it's fairly easy again. Unless the government do a dramtic u-turn on cutting the deficit which seems extremely unlikely, prices can only go down this year. I can see the surprise rebound in 2009 being wiped out so my guess is that we'll see a 5-10% fall and I'll plump for a December 2011 figure of £153k.
  2. The FSA made an unexpected request for information from all the UK financial institutions today. The question is whether this was preparing for a major crisis in the next few days, some kind of pre arranged exercise or whether they were just causing trouble before they are disbanded. Based on their previous performance, the FSA doesn't seem to have much insights into the future, so my guess is they were just flexing their muscles. Having said that we seem to be slipping towards a second credit crunch based on the concerns over sovereign debt. The governments managed to stay reasonably united last time, but we may well see a lot of countries looking after number one this time which will lead to civil unrest in a number of countries. I'm afraid the Greek protests look set to be repeated in several countries and I'm rather fearful that the ultimate result of the great depression may be repeated again. I think I better change my status back to bear after this post!
  3. I don't get too excited about these although I suspect last years upward trend will reverse this year. It will probably fluctuate for the next few months before heading South with the warmth at the end of the year. My guess for tomorrow is -0.1% I'd love to get one of these right, so I wouldn't need to continue to guess them. Once (If) I get one right that's it for me I will never try to guess one ever again.
  4. We didn't do too well at forecasting house prices last year. Remember the thread on what would happen to the Halifax hpi during 2009? 2009 predictions My forecast was positively dove like at 146k, although I did mention that pre election stimulus measures may cause it to be higher. Most of the forecasts were in the 120-140k range. I'm afraid to say that the prize for the closest prediction goes to Sibley at 160k, but even he was forecasting a fall in 2009 rather than a rise to 169k. We must be able to do better in 2010! I suspect it's rather easier to predict this year as the stimulus packages are coming to an end and the measures brought in post election will not really start to bite until the end of year and into 2011. I'm therefore confident in predicting a small fall during 2010 and suspect it will be back to £162k when the December 2010 figures are published.
  5. Yes, I think that's the programme I was refering to in my reply. A very dangerous and unbalanced programme.
  6. I think tv programmes helped to fuel the bubble, but aren't the sole reason for it. I've never been a big fan of them myself, but I thought Location, Location, Location provided a list of potential properties to a buyer. The programmes that have more to answer for are the property development programmes. Most of these went along the lines of somebody buying a property for £100k, spending 15k tarting it up and then selling it (or to be more precise having it valued) 9 months later for £135k meaning that they had made a profit of £20k. The real problem with these programmes is that most people take them at face value. In the early noughties if you didn't do anything the value would be £110k due to the ridiculously high hpi and what about all the other costs involved in purchasing and developing houses. Possibly the worst example I saw was a programme where people were reserving apartments in Dubai. If you reserved an apartment for £600k it would be worth £900k in 6 months and the properties weren't even due to be built for another couple of years. What's more they went back 6 months later and found that those properties had appreciated to £900k as expected. Clearly people that were investing in Dubai weren't aware of the old saying that if something seems too good to be true then it is too good be true. Anyway in addition to tv programmes the poor performance of most pensions also has a lot to answer for. I know a number of people who purchased a second property effectively as a pension. The stock market bubble of the late 90's may well have fuelled the property bubble of the noughties once it popped. Governments and regulatory bodies should have moved to cap house price rises as well and to be honest it is almost criminal negligence that they didn't. The biggest cause of all for the housing bubble though is quite easy ... individual greed.
  7. Someone who request credit for the first time will receive a lower score than other people who have regularly managed credit without any issues. They will of course have a higher score than those people who have missed payments or defaulted. In the current climate a lot of financial services companies have changed their lending criteria which means a score which would have received an approval for credit 12 months ago will now be declined.
  8. Moody's Bank Losses I just heard this mentioned on Newsnight and can't see any mention of it on here. Not good news for any of us bearing in mind we're all shareholders in the banks.
  9. The good thing about predictions is that nobody knows whether they will be accurate or not. Here's my take on your predictions. The Euro will fail in the next 5-10 years. Agree. The EU itself will not survive in its current form. Agree, but it's been evolving ever since it's inceptions so there's no reason to think anything will change in the next few years. MMGW will be quietly consigned to the political dustbin. Agree. China's Economic miracle is finished. I don't agree with this and expect China to be the dominant power of the world throughout this century. Socialism in the UK is finished. I expect the two major parties to become more radical as the country struggles through the next decade, so I don't agree with this either. The US will emerge from this depression even more powerful than it was before. I think America is on the wain as a political and economic leader and hence very dangerous. The Dollar will be the World reserve currency for the next 100 years. As above don't agree with this. Renewable energy in this country is finished. Maybe. Oil gas and coal will last another 100 years. Probably. Traffic lighted responses. I bet the Labour party would pay me bucket loads of money for that!
  10. Totally agree with this. You have to admire his ability to transfer the blame even though it's frustrating.
  11. Even in this forum it's hard to find anybody that will support this prediction. I'm firmly of the opinion that house prices will be virtually stagnant over the next few years. It's what happened in the early 90's and it's what will happen again over the next 5+ years.
  12. I think the market will be down in Autumn. Looks like Wall Street is having a bad day today as it's over 99% down to less than 100!! Monday Markets I confidently predict a rapid recovery from this position, but I think the markets will be down during Autumn.
  13. Well I'm hoping one day to hit the button on these. I think with all the ramping of recent months I expect to see a rise of 1.8% this month ... I expect the downward trend to return by November though.
  14. I think this sort of thing will be quite common in the forseeable future. One good thing that will come from the turmoil over the next few years will be that political parties will diverge again. At the moment the policies of the parties are very similar, but in a few years when we've all suffered a bit more pain from the recession the parties will become more radical ... imo!
  15. Well I've managed to stay working at the same rate for the past couple of years in Financial services. A couple of companies have tried to renegotiate the rate, but I've played hard ball and kept my rate. Bearing in mind that I've got plenty of money in the bank I'll be taking a break soon, so the market isn't really that important to me, but I sense it would be quite difficult to get another contract unless you are willing to travel.
  16. I have the distinct impression that qe is not helping the underlying economy at all. If we have to have a huge hike in inflation it would have been nice to get a bit of growth from it. It looks like the only parts of the economy that are benefiting from qe are financial services. I think we are heading towards an extended period of stagflation. The government will sell off some parts of the nationalised banks early in the new year in a bid to win the next election. Growth in the stock market and rises in house prices will be trotted out as reasons why GB saved the world and the illusion may just have enough credance for most people that he'll win another term. God help us!!
  17. I posted a while ago that those people who are in work are enjoying a very good time at the moment. That will end after the next election when the taxpayers have to pay back the government borrowing whilst inflation peaks above 10% ... I agree with someone who mentioned that in a reply. Everybody should enjoy the next few months because the next few years are going to be tough!
  18. Yes, I've noticed that too in the retail outlets where I live. I've walked into a number of large retail outlets recently where I'm the only person in the place! There's something wrong when the retailers outnumber the customers.
  19. Verry difficult to get an income stream out of £10K. You'd need to grow the capital via high risk investments in order to get a regular income stream. I would suggest Joe uses it for training in a skill for which he is suitable and gets a job .... easier said than done, but if achieved that would be an income stream.
  20. The biggest issue for electrical retail stores is that a lot of people (myself included) will do product comparisons in store and then shop online for the best price once they've selected their preferred model. The problem with that is that if everybody does the same then the high street stores will disappear and it will not longer be possible to do it.
  21. It's an inditement of our society that the Consevatives can't say that they will cut public spending as that will scare most voters into voting Labour. In our culture of spend today and spend more tomorrow the great British public feel that they can carry on borrowing forever ... There is only one outcome to that approach .... Bankruptcy!
  22. Yes, it's interesting to reflect on how everybody thought that one of Labours greatest policies was to make the Bank of England responsible for setting interest rates. The only problem was that they were set based on the remit of maintaining a 2% rate of inflation. The inflation rate does not include house prices, so this was never a factor. Imagine how many letters Mervyn would have had to write to Brown if that was included! There is no doubt that the current slump would have been nowhere near as bad if the brakes were applied to the economy in 2003. I'm still a little mystified why that never happened as I can't imagine how anybody with a degree of common sense could not see that by allowing personal debt to spiral out of control we could only have one conclusion .... where we're at now!
  23. I wonder whether that is anything to do with the election?
  24. Yes, my black Monday thread was follpwed by a fall similar to todays, but that didn't really count as it coincided with the breaking news about swine flu. The markets bounced back up the follwoing day - will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow!
  25. I'm not especially bullish about the pound, but I think the euro is in for a real pounding (excuse the pun) over the next few months. It will not be long before interest rates are substantially higher in the UK than the Eurozone. I'm expecting to see 1.40 + by the end of the year.
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