Btl Scum Regrouping And On The Offensive. -- Merged

[Blod]

Just now, Bland Unsight said:

I'd include that in the "terms by which house prices are financed".

(Is "terms under which" better/right? [Shrugs])

Should be fun next year if rates start rising 

[Bland Unsight]

57 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

I know that we covered this in some detail last year but I calculated a move to 145% to maintain the equivalent of 125% ICR for higher rate tax payers back in July 16, and did not understand the 167% calculation.

Not saying it is necessarily wrong, but given that we know that the tax change essentially adds 20% of tax onto interest repayments, it sounds intuitively correct if we add this amount to the current ICR requirements ie 125% + 20%.

FT's calculation is spot on (of course). If you look at the world before section 24 you see that the lender effectively has a 20% "buffer".

If R is the rent and M is the mortgage interest expense (interest-only, natch) then a 125% ICR means

R =1.25M

[Therefore R/5=1.25M/5, hence 0.2R = 0.25M (we'll need this in a bit)]

FT then looks at the buffer the lender has required

R = M + 0.25M

But instead of expressing the 0.25M buffer in terms of the mortgage interest expense M, you can look at it in terms of the rent  as 0.25M =0.2R

R = M + 0.2R

The rest of FT's calculation runs off the assumption that the lenders would essentially not let their underwriting standards slip and would maintain a buffer of 0.2R. As the lenders have come in lower (at 145%) this means that actually they have responded to the changes by meeting their BTL customers half-way. The BTL investors are having to put more money down but the lenders are trimming their buffer.

The world before 125% ICR being standard on BTL is before my time but a bit of tenacious googling threw up this from 2006:

Quote

"West Brom is not the only lender to introduce a 100% rental formula recently. Bank of Ireland Mortgages and Bristol & West Mortgages did likewise last month, reducing the rental cover from 115% to 100%, but on all products other than fixed rates of three years or more, increasing the rate used in the calculation from 5.70% to 6.50%. On a typical £100,000 advance the monthly rental needed has gone down by a mere £4, from £546 to £542.

"Other lenders with 100% rental cover take a different tack. The Mortgage Works, for example, loads its arrangement fee by 1% if the borrower can meet no better than a 100% rental cover, meaning some products carry a whopping 2.5% fee - £2,500 on a £100,000 mortgage.

Source

I love the idea of TMW (Nationwide's BTL lender) using an upfront fee to compensate themselves for the risk implicit in a 100% ICR. FFS.

If I was a betting man I'd argue that the chaps in the mortgage department figured that for the run-of-the-mill single property BTL investor, if they are also a higher rate tax payer, then the work that was being done by rent via the 20% buffer can be done just as well by the borrower's non-property income, hence why we've ended up at 145% and not 167%.

I suspect that FT's argument may well still be rock solid for portfolio landlords where non-property income is trivial compared to the interest expense on the portfolio and that therefore the specialist underwriting they'll face in the fullness of time (September 2017 IIRC) may lead to some surprises.

Edited December 24, 2016 by Bland Unsight

[Bland Unsight]

59 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Oh yeah!!! Your post is the HPC equivalent of getting an Optimus Prime transformer AND a new BMX from Santa.

These f*cking goons are still busy campaigning against S24 with hardly a peep about PRA. They think they've still got time to plan and mitigate (i.e. write more letters and hope for the best) but when it comes to remortgage time PRA will smack them right in the face, then keep smacking them in the face until they take the only action we've been telling them they need to take for the last 18 months.

Merry f*cking Christmas!

Amen to that!

Edited December 24, 2016 by Bland Unsight

[Pop321]

1 hour ago, Blod said:

Should be fun next year if rates start rising 

The impact on borrowing will be massive....and the reverse impact on investments will be an absolute killer. 

If you can get 4% in a savings account, the demand for tiny yielding properties will move from low to nil.*

*excludes 118'ers who appear to not fully grasp Mathematics, economics or common sense. ?

[JustAPleb]

6 hours ago, Bland Unsight said:

If you've managed to analyse property for twenty years and not work out that it's supply and demand (innit) then I'd be curious to know what you have learned. I think you might welcome a little help getting up to speed so have these two property factoids for free, think of them as an early Christmas present: houses have doors and windows and the banks will lend you money to buy them.

I've learned that there have been endless swans that have came and gone that were meant to see the property market correct and its just got worse. 

And none of us can claim to be that great at predicting or knowing how the English property market works as seemingly 7-8 years ago was the time to buy ... i waited as fundamentals told me prices had much further to drop. How wrong was I.

Anyway my pessimistic nature will need to see the corpse and kick to confirm its not got anymore life to cause further destruction.

 

[Bland Unsight]

2 minutes ago, JustAPleb said:

I've learned that there have been endless swans that have came and gone that were meant to see the property market correct and its just got worse. 

And none of us can claim to be that great at predicting or knowing how the English property market works as seemingly 7-8 years ago was the time to buy ... i waited as fundamentals told me prices had much further to drop. How wrong was I.

Anyway my pessimistic nature will need to see the corpse and kick to confirm its not got anymore life to cause further destruction.

Stop trolling this thread with boring, vacuous posts, please.

[JustAPleb]

Just now, Bland Unsight said:

Stop trolling this thread with boring, vacuous posts, please.

I was merely replying to your post.

[Bland Unsight]

7 minutes ago, JustAPleb said:

I was merely replying to your post.

You've had the inappropriateness of your posting explained to you carefully, and yet you persist. It is now totally clear that you are actively trolling.

Posters have been quite generous to you, but I'm not sure that the moderators will see it the same way should your conduct be brought to their attention, so unless you have something interesting and relevant to say I suggest you give it a rest.

If you stick with your rather crass approach then you might find yourself banned before you get to double figures. You won't be the first, nor will you be the last.

Edited December 24, 2016 by Bland Unsight

[JustAPleb]

Just now, Bland Unsight said:

You've had the inappropriateness of your posting explained to you carefully, and yet you persist hence it is now totally clear that you are actively trolling.

Posters have been quite generous to you, but I'm not sure that the moderators will see it the same way should your conduct be brought to their attention, so unless you have something interesting and relevant to say I suggest you give it a rest.

If you stick with your rather crass approach then you might find yourself banned before you get to double figures. You won't be the first, nor will you be the last.

Seems you've taken over this forum, you snivelling little grass. 

You're as big a ***** as the owner of 118 who you're so obsessed with, though you're far more up his own backside.

Wasn't it RK who wished to meet you and take your little middle class head off, now that would be deserved.

 

 

 

[Bland Unsight]

4 hours ago, JustAPleb said:

Seems you've taken over this forum, you snivelling little grass. 

You're as big a ***** as the owner of 118 who you're so obsessed with, though you're far more up his own backside.

Wasn't it RK who wished to meet you and take your little middle class head off, now that would be deserved.

Merry Christmas to you too. 

I think that you're being very, very unfair to RK; there was nothing in what he posted which led me to believe that he intended me any physical harm.

I think that it would make more sense to accuse me of being more up my own backside than Busta is up his, but I do like your idea of me being "more up his own backside".

(Good to see my troll radar is still pretty well calibrated.)

Edited December 24, 2016 by Bland Unsight

[JustAPleb]

2 minutes ago, Bland Unsight said:

(Good to see my troll radar is still pretty well calibrated.)

Well i want a house price crash, though despite millions being priced out there are a few on here who seem to think they're the only ones.

 

[Bland Unsight]

1 minute ago, JustAPleb said:

Well i want a house price crash, though despite millions being priced out there are a few on here who seem to think they're the only ones.

Brilliant recovery, I'm sure everyone reading the thread is now totally convinced that I am the bad guy and you are not an angry troll.

[JustAPleb]

Just now, Bland Unsight said:

Brilliant recovery, I'm sure everyone reading the thread is now totally convinced that I am the bad guy and you are not an angry troll.

In the greater scheme of things i could not really give a shit if people on here think i've a lovely little portfolio.

But sadly i didn't take the risk to buy in the 2009-2013 dip, much like yourself.

In hindsight a bad move.

[spyguy]

5 minutes ago, JustAPleb said:

In the greater scheme of things i could not really give a shit if people on here think i've a lovely little portfolio.

But sadly i didn't take the risk to buy in the 2009-2013 dip, much like yourself.

In hindsight a bad move.

Wooh there!

There are fck all transaction happening.

Its really been the boom that was not.

 

[Bland Unsight]

3 minutes ago, JustAPleb said:

In the greater scheme of things i could not really give a shit if people on here think i've a lovely little portfolio.

But sadly i didn't take the risk to buy in the 2009-2013 dip, much like yourself.

In hindsight a bad move.

Fascinating. I'm out.

[JustAPleb]

Adios Bland. Got to 12 posts you snivelling little *****.

[Bland Unsight]

8 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Wooh there!

There are fck all transaction happening.

Its really been the boom that was not.

The other thing is that it has really been centred on London, which is great for BTL investors who entered the London market at the right time, but it also means that investors in other markets have seen prices go nowhere for a decade.

Source

[Ah-so]

12 minutes ago, JustAPleb said:

Adios Bland. Got to 12 posts you snivelling little *****.

You picked the wrong thread.

[monkeyman1974]

****** ME. Thought Police. I lurk lots; post little (mostly as my points have been made). We don't want this site to turn into an Islington dinner party.

[Bland Unsight]

8 hours ago, JustAPleb said:

I did not know that this topic was about exactly what have just said not sure how I could. In most forums if someone puts a link in its ok to comment on the content. But you seem to be telling me its not. Anyway others gave their informed response.

 

55 minutes ago, JustAPleb said:

Seems you've taken over this forum, you snivelling little grass. 

You're as big a ***** as the owner of 118 who you're so obsessed with, though you're far more up his own backside.

Wasn't it RK who wished to meet you and take your little middle class head off, now that would be deserved.

You have got to respect this chap. In seven hours he goes from not knowing what this thread is about to being up to speed on my continuing fascination with Busta and some other arcane bits of HPC history. I hope that the period of intense study of the forum required to fill the gaps in his knowledge didn't disrupt any last minute Christmas shopping.

[Si1]

Feeling entertained. Keep it up Blandey

[hi5lo5]

1 hour ago, Bland Unsight said:

Fascinating. I'm out.

 

LOL... I am sure more trolls to appear here... when they get really desperate.

[Bland Unsight]

22 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Feeling entertained. Keep it up Blandey

I am actually a buy-to-let troll and I am only here to try to sway sentiment and put some rocket fuel under prices. I've just got a bit carried away with the business of first establishing my credentials as a legit HPC poster. But you wait, once I switch it's going to be non-stop "It's all rigged!", "The banksters will always win", "I quite like a bit of Celine Dion." (The last one is a signal to my confederates to also switch tactics.)

 

[Si1]

3 minutes ago, Bland Unsight said:

 "I quite like a bit of Celine Dion." (The last one is a signal to my confederates to also switch tactics.)

 

Subconscious reference to the Titanic?

[thewig]

my best guess is the sort of person who signs up to House Price Crash at Christmas to let out some vile bile has to be a DEBTjunkie of one sort or another

 

You're going bankrupt, fella, hope it hurts.