Nationwide September -1.7% Mom -12.4% Yoy

[AffordableHousing]

Re: Nationwide latest sept 2008 figures.

"House prices will continue to fall in short term, but longer term prospects are more sound".

The weather is a bit unsettled but long term prospects are more sound.

Garry Glitters stomach ulcer is a bit unsettled but long term prospects are more sound.

I don't want to hear any of this optimistic claptrap.

Just DOOM and GLOOM.

And co-reveling in the hardship of others.

co-reveling in the hardship of others.

co-reveling in the hardship of others.

co-reveling in the hardship of others.

With all these house investers/owners waxing and waining, fretting over their property's loss of value. Wibble wibble wibble wibble wibble my house has lost Thousands of pounds in value in a month.

Spending hand over fist to pay back their crushing debt.

With all the 39% utility bill increases, poll tax, rising inflation and the good old grim reaper UNEMPLOYMENT sything them up dayly by the Thousands.

Nationwides 1.7% house price decrease in the month of Septemper 2008 is great.

Followed by a decrease for October, November, December.... happy days eh!.

Keep those figures coming Nationwide, mind you don't go bust!.

Can't you just FEEL the suffering of the millions of home owner/buyers.

Reach out, move back a little, take a deep breath and Revel in it.

Spare them no pity.

Rub their noses in it when you meet them and bring the subject up, watch their faces drop and listen to their guts churning about with fear and absolute worry.

But hey! 'longer term prospects are more sound'.

And them MY house will be worth £$91054545454£$ pounds yippee!.

And THEN I'll feel happy.

Tying your happiness into the value of some house bricks.

Might as well tie it into the cracks in the pavements.

Which as you know, you'd better not tread on.....or you might die..

[PotNoodle]

179,110.......161,797...= 9.7% drop in last 6 months.

172,415.......161,797...= 6.2% drop in last 3 months

That's pretty impressive.

[Namaste]

Anyone realised this?

Jun '08: £172,415

Sep '08: £161,797

That's an £11,000 drop in 3 months.

If we get the same drop in the next three months (Oct, Nov, Dec) that puts the average house price to £150,000, smack bang in the middle of 2004 prices!!!

[Van]

Personally I think people will just be relieved to stay in work, pay rises or not. As unemployment rises employees will be in a weak bargaining position and will compensate by being ever more careful with their spending.

I was at school during the hard times of the seventies and I remember the strikes , the free school meals, the power cuts etc but the main difference is that then people were more realistic in their lifestyle expectations.

Foreign holidays were fairly unusual, most people would have quite an old car, changing from a B&W TV to colour was a life changing experience. Living within your means was natural and putting aside for a rainy day was normal and sensible.

What I`m driving at is that my parents generation had lived through austerity ( the war, rationing, ) were made of sterner stuff

and had the character to deal with harder times.

Unfortunately I think the financial unravelling heading our way will have consequences far more severe than I remember from the seventies and I don`t think the modern population will be able to handle it. They seem to be like a bunch of primary school kids flouncing about pretending to be adults and when it all goes tits up I expect a lot of stamping of feet, sulking and bursting into tears. It`s not going to be pleasant to witness.

With roaring inflation, rising unemployment, disappearing banks, and civil unrest

One thing I`m sure of is that house prices, and salary multiples along with them, will be the least of our worries.

All quite possible, and if wage inflation doesn't pick up the slack then house prices will have to adjust further down. However, don't forget that central banks are printing money at the fastest rate ever and that's got to feed through somewhere. inflation is a necessary evil and will help inflate the debt away.

[Thucydides]

Anyone realised this?

Jun '08: £172,415

Sep '08: £161,797

That's an £11,000 drop in 3 months.

If we get the same drop in the next three months (Oct, Nov, Dec) that puts the average house price to £150,000, smack bang in the middle of 2004 prices!!!

Yes - I realised this morning that the average house is losing about £1000 a week. This has got to hurt.

[forcryingoutloud]

I love the futile spin they attempt to put on things: "Nationwide says the pace of house price falls had stabilised". Phew, thank God for that. That's like a doctor saying, "good news, Mrs. Smith, the growth in the size of your husband's brain tumour has stabilised. We can't operate on it, and it is still growing, but it's not growing any faster than it was before. You must be relieved...".

I'm just wondering how long it will be until someone again gives me the staggering advice that now is a good time to buy. The last time was last week, so I'm thinking maybe next week.

[hedgefunded]

Though what a chicken would be doing at 70,000 feet in the air, I have no idea.

Lunch on an SR-71?

[Ethel]

Re: Nationwide latest sept 2008 figures.

"House prices will continue to fall in short term, but longer term prospects are more sound".

The weather is a bit unsettled but long term prospects are more sound.

Garry Glitters stomach ulcer is a bit unsettled but long term prospects are more sound.

I don't want to hear any of this optimistic claptrap.

Just DOOM and GLOOM.

And co-reveling in the hardship of others.

co-reveling in the hardship of others.

co-reveling in the hardship of others.

co-reveling in the hardship of others.

With all these house investers/owners waxing and waining, fretting over their property's loss of value. Wibble wibble wibble wibble wibble my house has lost Thousands of pounds in value in a month.

Spending hand over fist to pay back their crushing debt.

With all the 39% utility bill increases, poll tax, rising inflation and the good old grim reaper UNEMPLOYMENT sything them up dayly by the Thousands.

Nationwides 1.7% house price decrease in the month of Septemper 2008 is great.

Followed by a decrease for October, November, December.... happy days eh!.

Keep those figures coming Nationwide, mind you don't go bust!.

Can't you just FEEL the suffering of the millions of home owner/buyers.

Reach out, move back a little, take a deep breath and Revel in it.

Spare them no pity.

Rub their noses in it when you meet them and bring the subject up, watch their faces drop and listen to their guts churning about with fear and absolute worry.

But hey! 'longer term prospects are more sound'.

And them MY house will be worth £$91054545454£$ pounds yippee!.

And THEN I'll feel happy.

Tying your happiness into the value of some house bricks.

Might as well tie it into the cracks in the pavements.

Which as you know, you'd better not tread on.....or you might die..

Is this an ironically worded slur against priced out FTBs or are you being serious?

[bootfair]

"Casting back one year, there have been some astonishing and unpredictable developments in the housing and financial markets," said Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's chief economist. "

Is she farking joking or what ?

Where's that fella that wrote to her, he should drop her another line about this one !

On BBC radio 4, "Your & Yours" now predicting 35% drop... sorry dont get the full name Capital *****

The presenter just choked...

Edited October 2, 2008 by bootfair

[WitsEnd]

suppose someone got a PhD for throwing cats off tall buildings?

Sounds like an awesome job!

As a side note, I have a friend who works for Lockheed Martin whose job is to design guns that shoot chickens at plane windshields at 500mph. Though what a chicken would be doing at 70,000 feet in the air, I have no idea.

If you place a frog on a bridge and then tickle its ar*e it will jump, and remain in the star position all the way to the bottom.

I have had many arguments at dinner parties regarding this, as I vehemently believe the children of the Incas used to do this for fun from the top of temples, causing many of the clever frogs to evolve and develop a membrane between their front and hind legs.

This gave them the ability to 'fly'.

Just goes to show, when you get your backside felt and decide to jump, you can live to see another day.

[bagsos]

thats still 5-6 times average salary.

I am not sure that average wages to average house price is a valid comparison. Think about it - 70% of houses are owner occupied. Of those, 40% are owned outright and 60% subject to a mortgage. Of the 30% that are renting, there are no figures to back this up but say 5% out of that 30% are on benefits so can't buy; 10% are owned by those who could afford a home but choose not to buy and that leaves 15% who are in work but do not earn enough to sustain a mortgage. That being the case should we not be comparing average house prices to the average earned income of the top 85% of earners? You could probably do a similar exercise to skim off the top of the labour and housing market too, although I would think the impact of this exercise is lower. I suspect if you do this exercise then the average earnings of the top 85% of earners are closer to 3 - 4x the cost of the average house at £120k. Does anyone have the data to do this exercise or am I barking up the wrong tree entirely?

[bobthe~]

I am not sure that average wages to average house price is a valid comparison. Think about it - 70% of houses are owner occupied. Of those, 40% are owned outright and 60% subject to a mortgage. Of the 30% that are renting, there are no figures to back this up but say 5% out of that 30% are on benefits so can't buy; 10% are owned by those who could afford a home but choose not to buy and that leaves 15% who are in work but do not earn enough to sustain a mortgage. That being the case should we not be comparing average house prices to the average earned income of the top 85% of earners? You could probably do a similar exercise to skim off the top of the labour and housing market too, although I would think the impact of this exercise is lower. I suspect if you do this exercise then the average earnings of the top 85% of earners are closer to 3 - 4x the cost of the average house at £120k. Does anyone have the data to do this exercise or am I barking up the wrong tree entirely?

You can over analyse this.

It is really just a rule of thumb that house prices have in previous burst bubbles reverted to 3.5xAverage Salary.

There may be a "paradigm shift", it may be "different this time", chances are it won't be.

All those things you mention may be taken into account within the general rule.

[Bjørn]

am I barking up the wrong tree entirely?

Yes, you are barking.

[Disillusioned]

All quite possible, and if wage inflation doesn't pick up the slack then house prices will have to adjust further down. However, don't forget that central banks are printing money at the fastest rate ever and that's got to feed through somewhere. inflation is a necessary evil and will help inflate the debt away.

...but it must feed into wages to have any effect on the debt being paid off.

You can over analyse this.

It is really just a rule of thumb that house prices have in previous burst bubbles reverted to 3.5xAverage Salary.

There may be a "paradigm shift", it may be "different this time", chances are it won't be.

All those things you mention may be taken into account within the general rule.

Very true. All bagsos has done is change the sample, but the rule of thumb is the same. If he were to look at previous crashes with this sample in mind, he might find that house prices tended to revert to about 2 times the average earnings of the top 85% earners. So we'd be looking at the same house price for this crash, just with different figures (changing disproportionaly to each other) on the other side of the equation.

[The Inside Man]

I know a lot of people on here are looking for a bigger published MoM drop, but has it crossed your mind that ~2% might be as 'good as it gets'?

In a catastrophic situation (as we have now), the market just freezes. A small number of forced sellers sell at a big discount as they have to, people moving for work reasons (company moves), immigration and downshifters will keep some movement in the market, but unforced sellers just don't sell. A lot of sellers will take their houses off the market, a lot will just languish, and sales numbers will fall dramatically. Just what we're seeing now.

Also, the segmentation of sales is changing. We're seeing a LOT less sales in mid to larger homes (apart from Oligarch mansions), and more in smaller homes (flats, terraced houses, etc). The way in which the average values are calculated means that larger drops in smaller homes that are selling are cancelled out by 'no drops' in the more expensive houses that are not selling. So the seizure of the market skews the reported drop.

I'm of the opinion that at the moment the most the market will be reported to fall is about 2%, +/- around 0.5% on a MoM basis. Question is, how long does it keep going? That's where we will get the 40%+ or 50%+ drop.... after it's been falling at that rate for 2 or 3 years...

Of course, if we hit a wall (mass redundancies, banks crashing, riots...) then the rules change. It may accellerate further... but I am not sure. People take time to adjust to new prices, they are emotionally attached to the perceived value of their house, and this stops them from just knocking off a big lump of the price.

Finally, for the tinfoil hatters, the numbers are also 'adjusted'.... guess which way :-0

T.I.M.

[notthereyet]

'stabilisation in the pace' still means the crash is nowhere near the end ... spin.. spin.. spin... but the word stabilisation should get the sheeple ..

And they say there will be tough times for a year or two, a bit more than that i think.

[Flat Bear]

Nope it just confirms this.

The WHOLE damn economy is based on House Prices.

IT IS ******ED AND SO ARE WE

I'm confused. Do you think house prices are going or are likely to go down?

If you do you should be a bear.

A neither means you think prices will stay exactly the same or you have no idea.

[Flat Bear]

Always find hilarious comments like thise... no offense, but traders are not imbeciles and, in the end, it's not traders that set the tone. If it were only traders trading, the trading business wouldn't exist. Market microstructure and tides are much more complicated than that. Second, remember that what you read in the news is not first-hand info, it's been recycled etc. Traders are among the first to learn, feel strange tides indicative of something that may get published days if not weeks later.

So, no offense, but don't underestimate people that work in the industry - by far not everyone was packaging liar loans. It maybe a dead-cat bounce, but one can lose his shirt if the position, however rational, loses money in an irrational market.

No offence to you either but:

#no offense, but traders are not imbeciles

Yes they are they are the ones that got us into this mess and have no idea of the real world

# but don't underestimate people that work in the industry

They overestimate their own importance. The unreal world they have created for themselves is falling apart.

[redwing]

Can't believe this thread (today's big news) is buried pages back.

Here it is fresh for any latecomers this evening.

[Y-QUERK]

Can't believe this thread (today's big news) is buried pages back.

Here it is fresh for any latecomers this evening.

This is so last month.