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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. clearly not everything is on the ad here, as 550k for that flat in that location is way too cheap by usual. It's almost certainly a leasehold property with very short amount of time left on the lease.
  2. TBH Good on them. They're overcommitting to a overpriced house, but they are doing it on their own terms with their eyes wide open. They're not basing their future prospects on the hope of ever increasing house prices and are living within their means, so I wish them well.
  3. Hello HPC. Haven't really posted here for yonks, but just thought I would share the anecdote about friends who have just been hit with a roof-repair bill on their ex-council flat in the region of £30k. Didn't see that one coming. They should be fine. They're fairly minted and they have plenty of equity. But just goes to show you that the house-owning dream sometimes isn't all its cracked up to be.
  4. BDEV shareprice has plunged too, despite general FTSE rally. A sure sign that trouble is ahead.
  5. People are learning a hard lesson here that wages do no always automatically outstrip inflation. If they did then there would be no recessions, no need to ever reevaluate your spending or to cut back. Sometimes you have to batton down the hatches, economize and wait for better times. Do you think wages were always growing faster than prices during the inflationary peaks of the 70's or 80's?
  6. So just like the BTL brigade who confidently predicted all their 2Br hovels would be worth £1m by 2012, you are waiting for a boat that will never arrive.
  7. Agreed, but I can see ZIRP lasting longer than any of us believe, as it is now clear that UK (and global) policy is to keep negative real rates and the ones who will really suffer in all this will be savers who will see their savings eroded in the years ahead. That is very unfair on savers, but it is the way it is. Another spurt in unemployment (to 3m+) also has the potential to speed up the crash, but here I see that the picture is improving and the private sector is at the moment easily coping with the public sector redundancies. So here again the situation is improving rather than deteriorating, which lends support to sustaining prices at these levels.
  8. Yes I do; I've said before that we are much closer to a nominal bottom than people think. Prices will not fall more than -10% (as measured by Halifax/Nationwide) from their current level, and inflation over the next 3-5 years will do the rest to bring the prices back into line with the long term trend. I've been on HPC since day 1 and on the FT forum before that, and I can tell you that I was uber-bearish when it was called for (2005-2007) but as the market has deflated somewhat I now stand against the majority of the HPC view. I will be reminding the perma-bears of my predictions in a 1, 2 and 3 years' time when they are still waiting for the big falls that they have pinned their hopes on. People expecting prices to fall back to a bottom of x2.5 average salary like we saw in 1996 are waiting for a boat that will never arrive.
  9. All well and good... if you are certain that house prices will fall 20% over the next 2 years. Bear in mind that this is roughly the same as the peak of the Halifax index to where we are now, and that took 4 years, a credit-crunch, and 5%+ rates.
  10. Contributing factor to the strong rental market. Rents have definitely risen in the last 12-24 months.
  11. Because the group that the Govt/BoE have chosen to shaft this time round are savers - by keeping IRs low, so debt payments are manageable and even comfortable. If you have cash sitting in the bank then you are the real loser in all this. Without a rise in IRs or a big jump in unemployment we will not get the forced sales that will cause a bigger slide. That is the reality of what is happening, rightly or wrongly.
  12. So, right on course for the 3-year-grind that I've been predicting then. Nominal falls will not reach double figures again. They probably will not even reach -5%. We are much close to a nominal low than most people here believe. It's all about inflation doing the real work now - unfortunately this won't make anyone richer as real wages continue to fall.
  13. This desperately needs replotting with a log scale.
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