I'm Living In A Parallel Universe ....

[IMupNorth]

I must log onto this site every day to pick up on gossip and latest info, but I have to say that that you lot are deceiving yourselves at the moment.

You seem to jump on every bit of bad news and spin it for all its worth. You are all as guilty as the VI's you love to criticise.

The trouble is, where I live in North Yorkshire, properties are selling, number of houses on the market is starting to go down and 'asking prices' are going up - sure, there are a few reduced signs but nothing that constitutes a crash.

Me thinks, this 'crash' is going to be a very long drawn out affair.

Anybody, else seeing the same, got the same feeling, prepared to to stick their head above the HPC parapet ?!

[lpparker]

Well round here, there are lots of SSTC signs - but I've yet to see someone remove any signs and actually move in - and I have been looking - honest.

There's one down the road that's been SSTC since about Christmas (if not before)and no forward chain but still the sign stays, occasionally it gets blown over and I think someones moved in - but then the next day it's back up.

[HousePriceLottery]

Historically speaking all downturns have started in the area's of over-speculation (i.e. the South East and co) and then fan out across the country. So to say every is well in your area may be ignoring the bigger picture.

When it hits the fan the shock waves damage consumer confidence across the board due to the nationwide nature of the media. Then you see the ripple effect into the areas which tend to be behind the trend, the same areas that took longer in the first place to be dragged into the speculative madness which has gripped the nation.

You seem to jump on every bit of bad news and spin it for all its worth. You are all as guilty as the VI's you love to criticise.

When it comes down to it, it's all about who would you prefer to believe. A bunch of people speaking their minds on a bulletin board or a nationwide industry who's financial well being is fundamentally tied to the performance of the housing market? Check out the report on the National Agency of Estate Agents website and compare these two items;

1. A direct quote from the report; "The data shows that house prices have stabilised"

2. The graph on the first page of the report which show their much vaunted annualised house price figures bombing it through the floor?

That's the straight facts... right from the horses mouth.

BTW, before you wonder I live even further north than you. London will be ground zero, but the fall out is coming our way... it always does.

[zzg113]

The trouble is, where I live in North Yorkshire, properties are selling, number of houses on the market is starting to go down and 'asking prices' are going up - sure, there are a few reduced signs but nothing that constitutes a crash.

Me thinks, this 'crash' is going to be a very long drawn out affair.

So just like it was last time then?

Also, if you are in the North Yorkshire 'Golden Triangle' between Leeds, York and Harrogate, the best residential areas are least affected by housing market downturns.

And also, bear in mind you are at the outer reaches of the 'ripple effect': house price trends begin in the capital, and ripple out slowly to the rest of the UK.

If the property market is doing so well nationally, ImUpNorth, why are mortgage approvals at a six-year low?

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticl...BRITAIN-BBA.xml

[gilf]

I must log onto this site every day to pick up on gossip and latest info, but I have to say that that you lot are deceiving yourselves at the moment.

You seem to jump on every bit of bad news and spin it for all its worth. You are all as guilty as the VI's you love to criticise.

The trouble is, where I live in North Yorkshire, properties are selling, number of houses on the market is starting to go down and 'asking prices' are going up - sure, there are a few reduced signs but nothing that constitutes a crash.

Me thinks, this 'crash' is going to be a very long drawn out affair.

Anybody, else seeing the same, got the same feeling, prepared to to stick their head above the HPC parapet ?!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I've been out on the razzel so excuse my french but I couldn't give a ****** what's happening up north.

Down here in London we have been going down for months, everybody knows where London leads the north will follow, whether that be house prices, flat caps or whippets.

[HousePriceLottery]

everybody knows where London leads the north will follow, whether that be house prices, flat caps or whippets.

Steady on, the rest of UK civilisation has managed to resist the urge to build wobbly pedestrian bridges, dodgy domes, massive ferris wheels and big pineapple shaped buildings everywhere

[Culpability Brown]

Just like last time the North has seen huge gains but will also see the biggest losses.

In the cold light of day the North has far less economically to justify high prices, and it is here that the Crash will be felt hardest. A large number of southern and overseas investors will get their fingers burnt aswell of course.

[newaccount99]

Me thinks, this 'crash' is going to be a very long drawn out affair.

Anybody, else seeing the same, got the same feeling, prepared to to stick their head above the HPC parapet ?!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm in SE (North Hants) and I have to admit I anticipated a full on rout at this stage. Where I'm living everything is very stagnant, a few props are selling but no major downshifting in prices.

I feel we are going to need another 0.5% of BOE rises for things to reach crash propotions (>-10% per annum IMHO)......otherwise it could be everyones nightmare of a Japan style long drawn out decline.

Fed decides on rates tomoz and they are pretty sure to go for another 0.25%....I'm fairly sure we'll see another 0.25% in both EU and BOE by June.

[GCS15]

A long drawn out decline is my preferred crash. Gives me plenty of time to save and the BTL's will not be given an ultimatum ie you WILL sell. Instead BTL will continue to hold out as their property slowly declines in value and they will continue to subsidise rent.

[RichM]

IumNorth: You have a point, we do tend to "big up" every piece of negative news.

But there has been a significant change in mood over the past 9 months. IRs aren't going to rocket up, and barring terrorist attacks, this is going to take a while to build momentum. But I would suggest that the "smart" money has exited or is staying well clear. There is more and more negative media reports, and people are starting to realise what a con the whole thing has been.

I agree with the "ripple" idea, and would also suggest that there are enough people out there prepared to pay full whack for property to keep the market trundling along. Many folk really believe that property is worth +/- 5% of what estate agents market property for. Sorry to shout that, but it is true; they really don't question what has driven up property prices.

We do need to remain calm and be patient. This will build slowly, it's still a bit of a 'phoney war', but few on here would doubt that the general economic situation in the West is much more precarious than we have been led to believe. We've been kidded by the sheer length of time this bubble has been building. The various economic/financial powers-that-be can stand out there on the tightrope in gale force winds for some time, but they won't be there forever...

[Realty Cheque]

All the while people can buy themselves out of a fix with another credit card or release of equity from the mortgage, that magma chamber is going to grow. I think it's going to need a touch more on IRs, here and abroad to see it blow.

[Property Dreamer]

But there has been a significant change in mood over the past 9 months. IRs aren't going to rocket up, and barring terrorist attacks, this is going to take a while to build momentum.

I'm not sure a terrorist spectacular would have a negative effect on the housing market. It could make people feel safe only when in their own homes and thus drive up prices as people increasingly want to insulate themselves from a dangerous world.

[right_freds_dead]

im up north too. and have seen similar - though there is a marked slowdown from last year.

no rising prices on the west side of the north. lots of withdrawn.

could be a combination of the length of time ot took for the greed to get here and the dinosaur effect of the price u-turn.

you have to admit northerners get the second shift. and were too stupid to know better and quit now. perhaps north yorks due to its 'poshness' will continue to rise. id say north yorks has been underpriced for decades due to the good land etc.

still. its a downturn from thus time last year and the fixation. i feel a change, though i only currently see stagnation forming. a sort of 'crust' if you will. i feel a lot of people will just not move or take on debt in the next 2 years, then possibly a faster crash.

i would love a big instant crash, but this might affect my business, so its in all interests for a protracted slowdown.

but they are coming back down. i would give 3 more years on hold. after that i would really have to give up hope and leave for spain i think.

[luddite]

ImUpNorth

Relax.

I too am up north and right in the middle of the 'golden triangle', grooming my whippets, raising as many bairns as I can afford cloth caps for and otherwise twiddling my thumbs as I wait for house prices to fall.

My observations are that sellers are putting up their asking price in the anticipation of a fall, just hoping that the buyer is un-informed. I have also observerd a number of properties which have not come back onto the market since Christmas after failing to sell at the sucker price. Dont dispair, this is good news!

Last time round (1992 crash) prices fell 20% and I have every reason to expect that and more this time around. I have already seen £299 down to £249 at the back end of last year but it may be another 12-18 months before that kind of reduction is seen across the board. There may still be a few rich-kid suckers but they are thin on the ground and the EAs know it. Go into an EA and barge your way to the front of the queue (joke) and just ask probing questions until they can spin the truth no more. Look for the most junior member of staff as they are most likely to tell fewest lies. The tide is turning, but in terms of price falls, we still lag behind London and SE. (aside - seriously, Harrogate in particular could challenge parts of London for daftest prices at the moment)

There are many up north with 4x4s, kids at public school etc etc who will never be seen to 'sweat', but some are defineitely at risk of perspiring extensively. In the meantime, keep your powder dry, choose your area and keep looking for the death/divorce/desparate seller - you never know until you arrange a viewing.

Finally, do look at nethouseprices.com etc. I'm amazed at what some sales in top areas actually go through at. It must be a bit like asking out that girl who you know is way out of your league, but some jammy bugger gets her, and it turns out that it was because nobody else ever dared to ask her!

Keep the faith. Like as happen, maybe.

[bearly holding up]

ImupNorth,I was feeling similar to you recently.I previously posted that nothing much was shifting in my area.However sine then I have seen signs of movement-mostly at the bottom end ,but also some at the top.On checking EA websites,some properties have sold,but compared to this time last year , little.On my journey home from work,all the houses in my town display a 'Sold' sign,they are all at bottom end of market & sold quickly.I also (only today) heard of a 4 bed extended semi going for full asking price within a week.

Having said this ,recently I visited a friend who lives more towards the Manchester side(approx 25 minns drive from me) and did not spot a single sold sign in the Rossendale area.From this I concluded that it would take abit longer for the slow down to reach my area,which is less desirable & cheaper than Rossendale is perceived to be.So I think alot of the above posters are right ,the slow down will happen in our areas,but it will take longer.

[Once in a lifetime]

I must log onto this site every day to pick up on gossip and latest info, but I have to say that that you lot are deceiving yourselves at the moment.

You seem to jump on every bit of bad news and spin it for all its worth. You are all as guilty as the VI's you love to criticise.

The trouble is, where I live in North Yorkshire, properties are selling, number of houses on the market is starting to go down and 'asking prices' are going up - sure, there are a few reduced signs but nothing that constitutes a crash.

Me thinks, this 'crash' is going to be a very long drawn out affair.

Anybody, else seeing the same, got the same feeling, prepared to to stick their head above the HPC parapet ?!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

IMupNorth

Keep us posted on what’s happening up there, It might be interesting to monitor the land registry

closely over the coming weeks. It’s 6 months behind, The down turn happened late last summer

mortgage approvals crashed because Banks started to get sensible with loans.

Might see something amazing happening before your very eyes

[Gentle Ben]

In Merton where I live, I'm seeing plenty of reductions, especially on places put onto market near the peak. New build flats seem to be suffering too.

A few places have been selling, but not in great numbers. There are more For Sale boards than Sold (SSTC) boards popping up, and some of Sold boards are staying around for absolutely ages. There's one near me that went up last November!

I checked out the Land Reg figures for Merton on the BBC website (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/html/ba.stm), and found that prices fell 10.8% in the last quarter of 2004!!! That's quite a fall in 3 months.

[AteMoose]

I live in the midlands, but my grans old house in boston spa, a posh leeds commuter village is still on the market, its been on the market almost 12 mounths now..... Estate agents seem quite in worcester (the midlands), but i think there is a trickle of sales keeping things alive....

I was expecting a small leveling off in spring, before things start to decline again, people just cant afford property, its that fundimental.

[200p]

Still house prices pretty much the same here (south hampshire). We are still very much in denial phase. (at least they are not going up!). As long as those "ive got 40 BTL properties" programs are on, I d give it another 6-12 months and a few more companies to go under before we can check if we are still in the denial phase.

[jpjh]

Steady on, the rest of UK civilisation has managed to resist the urge to build wobbly pedestrian bridges, dodgy domes, massive ferris wheels and big pineapple shaped buildings everywhere

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

ROFLMAO

[Marina]

A lot of Southerners bought investment property in the North in the last couple of years. The market down here was played out 2 years ago. Prices in the South East have been flat and falling for a good while now.

I know a few people that couldn't find investments with sensible yields here so they started buying in places like Leeds and Wigan. Now prices there mean yields are no good - they've stopped buying.