Land Reg Figures September

[displayname]

http://www.landreg.gov.uk/assets/library/d...ts/hpir0907.pdf

[Matt Bear]

Half of regions showing MoM -ve.

London sales continue to dominate house price growth in England and Wales (August

2007 average price increases 0.2 per cent to £182,914)

[Kurt Barlow]

Half of regions showing MoM -ve.

Less than inflation (well depending on whichever govt massaged figure you beleive!)

[Matt Bear]

Where is everybody? Thought they'd be all over this thread. Have they not actually noticed they are out?

[displayname]

was just thinking the same thing!!!

[Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

Where is everybody? Thought they'd be all over this thread. Have they not actually noticed they are out?

Call me when something interesting happens. I'll be on my pager, yah?

[Realistbear]

Less than inflation (well depending on whichever govt massaged figure you beleive!)

The VIs are going to fight Great Crash 2 tooth and nail. Halifax are also claiming continuing HPI and that the credit market collapse has had no impact. This despite the claim by NAEA that business had dropped off 25%. It is going to take months yet before the VIs give in to market reality and begin reporting some really bad news. Unfortunatley we do not have the same data in the UK that is supplied to most markets in the US where Realtors provide in house data* that is usually accessible to the public providing medians, mediums, time on market, level of supply, % of asking price etc.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20070927/tuk...-fa6b408_2.html

LONDON (Reuters) -

House prices rose 0.7 percent in September

, but that still took the annual inflation rate down to its lowest in nearly a year, the Nationwide building society said on Thursday.

September's gain came after a rise of 0.6 percent in August, confounding forecasts for a dip to 0.4 percent.

If (if) Halifax data was a reliable guide current annual HPI would be around 9% which suggests an extremely strong market that has not been impacted by IR and tight credit supply. That the market has not been impacted by the removal of many irresponsible loans is suspicious in my view. IMO, the VI data is propaganda and that it is best to monitor the market with reference to:

1. Stress levels in the market as evidenced by reposessions (when growth in this area rises to more than 100% YoY it will be hard for the VIs to mask the declining prices that follow from forced sales--IIRC grwoth in this area is around 40% YoY but accelrating rapidly as resets will begin to impact the market data by early next year given the 6 month lag from commencement of proceedings).

2. Level of supply in the market.

3. New builder stocks (possibly THE best guide as stock prices reflect what is happening on the ground and to builder's bottom line).

4. Anecdotal evidence based on actual sales by reference to purchase price (LR Index fails to take into account improvements rendering their "like for like" data worthless and highly misleading).

That all said, the fact that the government are admitting that 50% of the regions are now in negative terriotry is a very risky step for Brown to take as it could impact sentiment. Falling house prices will not go down well with the sheeple who are currently planning to re-elect him with an even greater majority.

___________________

* www.sandicor.com

[OzzMosiz]

Where is everybody? Thought they'd be all over this thread. Have they not actually noticed they are out?

Loose Women is on the box, didnt you know?

[Willy Weasel]

The OP has cleverly found the figures a day early (release date is 28th)

My QoQ check tells me that my county (Warwickshire) is up 0.77% QoQ May-August ie annualised HPI of 3.1%.

IMHO we have reached the precipice and are about to stare into the abyss pricewise.

[Paddles]

There's a lag on these figures. The top was early August for everywhere other than "that London".

[Realistbear]

The OP has cleverly found the figures a day early (release date is 28th)

My QoQ check tells me that my county (Warwickshire) is up 0.77% QoQ May-August ie annualised HPI of 3.1%.

IMHO we have reached the precipice and are about to stare into the abyss pricewise.

Makes a 6% savings account look reeeeeeeeeeeeeeal good!*

Anecdotally speaking, I know a few people in my area of Warwickshire that have had to drop prices in this market and are still not getting any interest (contrary to STR and STM and FTBs waiting like vultures while their downpayment grows and grows).

______________________

* I am still in Texas and its amazing how rapidly you pick up local accents. I found this phenomena most acute in the West Country, especially Cornwall where you catch yourself oo-arring after a couple of days.

[madasafrog]

Did anyone realistically expect to see any dramatic figures on this report?

If the news of NR and credit crunch is going to have any impact on the housing market, it will take a lot longer than a few weeks to show up on reports such the LR figs.

If there is to be a fall in house prices, I doubt you will see any clear evidence until the early part of the new year

[Matt Bear]

Based on the "Average Price" figures there appear to be QoQ negative figures for Wales, East Midlands and West Midlands.

[Captain Wildman]

There's a lag on these figures. The top was early August for everywhere other than "that London".

...I'm absolutely fascinated with the actual sales volumes going South at a very fast rate.....this is one figure they cant manipulate.......low sales = high stocks on the EA's books......thus too much too sell means only one thing...Price drops.....yipee we are there

Capt Wildman

RB is a living Prophet

Edited September 27, 2007 by Captain Wildman

[Basil Fawlty]

Where is everybody? Thought they'd be all over this thread. Have they not actually noticed they are out?

We don't usually discuss house price data on these boards, stock markets, gold & politics are much more popular.

Anyway on that link the big news for me is that sales in June 2006 was 124,102 whereas in 2007 it was 105,312 a decline of 15%.

[symo]

Where is everybody? Thought they'd be all over this thread. Have they not actually noticed they are out?

Sorry telephone interview for another job in that dying manufacturing sector thing!

[R K]

Sales volumes slide in sub-200k is huge!

[PalmerEldritch]

Sales volumes slide in sub-200k is huge!

Noticed that, especially in London.

Even the 200k-250k properties were down 22%.

All the 800k + properties were up around 17% which I think explains the average price still going up by so much. Top end properties were still shifting 3 months ago but the bottom end of the market seems to have dried up. Looks like there is no bottom rung anymore.

[Realistbear]

Sales volumes slide in sub-200k is huge!

This proves the point I have been making for sometime. IN a falling market fewer, more expensive homes, will sell skewing the avereages. In crashes the bottom end seizes up first but the rich keep on doing their thang. A few EAs in the US admit this phenomena as the YoY stats kept positive for too long after the market had collapsed.

[gravity always wins]

This proves the point I have been making for sometime. IN a falling market fewer, more expensive homes, will sell skewing the avereages. In crashes the bottom end seizes up first but the rich keep on doing their thang. A few EAs in the US admit this phenomena as the YoY stats kept positive for too long after the market had collapsed.

Just goes to show the poor do not have a monopoly on being stupid

[R K]

This proves the point I have been making for sometime. IN a falling market fewer, more expensive homes, will sell skewing the avereages. In crashes the bottom end seizes up first but the rich keep on doing their thang. A few EAs in the US admit this phenomena as the YoY stats kept positive for too long after the market had collapsed.

Yes. In fact, I meant to say sub-250k (was looking at the line above when typing).

I couldn't really care less if the > £2,000,000 category quadruples every year (except insofar as it screws the stats in the media). I don't care much about the price inflation of Ferrari's, LearJets or meals at Ramsay's either. But I think it is significant that at the prices which affect the majority of people sales volumes fell so hard.

[Dr Doom]

Just goes to show the poor do not have a monopoly on being stupid

I guess this is where all the "record-bonus" money reported last christmas is going,

who's to say what they're doing is necessarily stupid, maybe the rich bankers know

something we don't about where things are heading?

i.e. hyperinflation

[bleakhouse]

I also think that the drop in volume is very significant. Last month it was 9pct. I have looked at several previous LR months (by changing the date in the URL) and they move up or down by around 2-3pct. Tight supply can cause a drop in the number of deals, but I don't think supply is tight. The other reason for a fall in deal numbers is lack of demand.

My view is that lack of demand has caused the number of exchanges to plummet. The next thing to plummet will be the price, and I don't believe we will have a long gentle decline of disbelief like the Americans before going into yoy 8pct falls

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070927/economy.html?.v=26

I think people mostly sell their house because they have to (death, divorce, job move, money) and only trade up in a rising market. We are going to be seeing only the have to sellers, and BTL ers will no longer be propping up the market by buying, they will be the most anxious sellers of all.

I would not surprise me if the 2007 yoy figures turned out to be negative.

[evictee]

This proves the point I have been making for sometime. IN a falling market fewer, more expensive homes, will sell skewing the avereages. In crashes the bottom end seizes up first but the rich keep on doing their thang. A few EAs in the US admit this phenomena as the YoY stats kept positive for too long after the market had collapsed.

This will not skew the Land Registry stats because they are based on repeat sales.

[Guest d23]

I also think that the drop in volume is very significant. Last month it was 9pct. I have looked at several previous LR months (by changing the date in the URL) and they move up or down by around 2-3pct. Tight supply can cause a drop in the number of deals, but I don't think supply is tight. The other reason for a fall in deal numbers is lack of demand.

My view is that lack of demand has caused the number of exchanges to plummet. The next thing to plummet will be the price, and I don't believe we will have a long gentle decline of disbelief like the Americans before going into yoy 8pct falls

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070927/economy.html?.v=26

I think people mostly sell their house because they have to (death, divorce, job move, money) and only trade up in a rising market. We are going to be seeing only the have to sellers, and BTL ers will no longer be propping up the market by buying, they will be the most anxious sellers of all.

I would not surprise me if the 2007 yoy figures turned out to be negative.

I would be willing to bet good money there will not be LR YoY falls this year