bleakhouse

Blimey, you know how to find a property bubble. Enjoy Canada and visit the lakes like the Kawarthas. You won't pine for Cambridge so much. Good luck.

You capture it all in one line. For this reason I think UK interest rates will remain low for the now proverbial extended period of time. It doesn't cost the government anything, it helps the banks repair their balance sheets from the spread and it stimulates the economy. The risk of runaway inflation is low in a world of deleveraging and deflation. There will be enough brakes on the economy from the cuts. With interest rates low it is now cheaper to buy than rent. I am a bear only in that I think house prices should be lower, if I was an STR I would be buying since the low interest on my cash pile wouldn't cover my rent. I think the arithmetic on to BTL gives a better return than many other investments, without capital gain/loss, I think the UK will survive. The US on the other hand, is totally mucked up. I think could be worthwhile to revisit Peter Schiff's decoupling theories of a few years ago.

If this is confirmed by the Land Registry on the 28th then it is indeed a jump, since average monthly sales are around 50,000 this year (against around 30,000 in the latter part of 2009). In spite of the increased offerings since the demise of the HIP, increased sales volume on this scale will mean increased prices, confounding all the experts predicting a fall in house prices this year. IMHO the only thing that will derail the slow steady increase in prices is an interest rate hike. It is all still so fragile that a quarter per cent hike will frighten at least 5pct off prices pretty quickly.

I did see them. I think maybe he gives good trading advice on his daily technical analysis, (for which you have to pay) but he never thought the 'Haynes bottom' was the low on the S&P, and still doesn't, so a little knowledge is a dangerous thing and you could have been killed by this rally, bear market rally or start of the new secular bull market. He has done quite well in previous years, but is hampered by his politics in his inability to foresee the extent of government involvement. And he tends to rant at the extent of government involvement, which he sees in varying degrees from mistaken to fraudulent. But always well reasoned, passionate and interesting.

To whom?

The requirement for a 20pct deposit is going to kill any recovery in the housing market IMHO. Even if you still have some equity in your house, say 15pct, you can't trade for another house. You can stay put and save for your deposit just like a FTB, while watching the remaining equity dwindle. Heartbreaking. If you want to move your only option is to rent out your diminishing asset, and my local paper is now full of property to rent, which wasn't a year ago. Real misery for homeowners who may have put down 20pct in the first place, and a caution to anyone thinking they want to get their foot on the property ladder. Green-shoots-in-my-foot.

Karl Denninger is also worrying about the impact of this. http://market-ticker.org/archives/1141-Mor...Falsehoods.html with more jolliness on his forum http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www...9508&page=2 (And don't mention CMBS)

Mish has lot of info and links in this piece from 31 May 2009 http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...in-to-come.html It is packed with graphs and charts. While it is colourful the picture it paints is not pretty. His conclusion: "Institutions Have Been Able to Raise Capital to Mostly Keep Up With Writedowns, But This Will Likely Not Continue. What can't be paid back will be defaulted on. Consumers with no job have no chance of paying back those debts. Many others who could, won't (because it is in their best interest to walk away). The Alt-A and Option ARM defaults are going to be massive."

Yes, when the two Bear Stearns funds collapsed.

If there are and have been around 60,000 properties coming on to the market each month, a quick look at the Land Registry figures will show that less than 30,000 a month are being sold. Umm, on reflection that's actually rather frightening as regards the future of house prices. Bullish it ain't.

Thanks folks. Not a resounding 'get that house gone' the market is going down a further 20pct then. How times have changed. Anyhow, given that my differentials won't be squeezed my only costs are those of running the house. Did I mention it was large, that is, large as in large bills. No need to rush out and STR, and I see far more threads of people that have bought a house today. Are we all talking bottoms ?

You can have too much of a good thing.

Our youngest is now starting VI form, and seems to be out a lot. (Why doesn't he want to sit in with his boring old parents?) So we are now rattling in our large mortgage free house in a hard to sell except in boom times location. We did expect to stay here till he'd finished school, but is this our only window of opportunity to sell, or will things get better? Should we cough up the money and get our HIPS?

I believe some of those people with those lovely fixed price mortgages expiring soon may be sellers. Their LTV has been decimated, arrangement costs for refinancing have spiralled and interest rates are on the way up. They could even be keen sellers.

Rise in percentage terms is often very misleading. I mean if they sold 10 houses in Wales last month and 16 this month it would be a 60pct rise. But it still wouldn't be very many. Spurious spin.