Oily Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 35 minutes ago, cashinmattress said: Well yeah. It's like the £100 light bulb analogy... you've probably heard of it applied to things like nuclear or the military... a different check, stamp, certificate, paint, coating, etc... that costs pennies get blown up. This happens all the time with the military; in the 2003 Iraq war the US army way paying GM I believe over $200k++ for a $40k (Chevy) Suburban (big a$$ truck) just because it was for overseas and war. Nothing else changed. Identical to the guzzler on the streets of LA or Idaho. So that's where the problem with oil and gas, and especially North Sea came from. Essentially all the engineering around extraction is more than a century old. Yes, there are advances in materials, electronics, etc... but at the end of the day its about getting a pipe into a reservoir and then off to a refinery. Decidedly low tech despite on reflection. It got especially corrupted with the notion of 'sub-sea'. In a shallow basin like the North Sea there's nothing especially difficult about laying pipelines or infrastructure... but boy did the industry pay for it. Engineering companies were and still are absolutely taking the p1ss because of several unique properties of the whole industry.... 1- profit. Oil companies can't report massive profits or the public gets upset when financial are released. It's best to re-invest and avoid taxes, aka kicking the can. Tons of subsea infrastructure is a good investment vehicle. Keeps the public at bay, keeps monies flowing internally and away from the profit column in the financials. Very much a product of extremely high oil prices. and lax tax regulations. 2- anti-competition nature of the big engineering firms. This is problematic for all SMEs. You've got the bar set high (too high in the vast majority of cases) by very refined and slick engineering firms. I read somewhere that the average subsea project had paperwork on completion of around 200 thousand documents. DNV was taking a look at rationalising the whole project delivery methodology to cut something like 40-60% from it. That's a lot of chargeable hours, and so so many bums in seats. Absolute overkill, and by design it excludes the small specialists except in certain cases. There is also the nature of how the big engineering firms are placed in the financial cycle that allows them to milk the little guys and accept almost no blame. The culture of challenging everything and creating non-trivial issues purely for profit. It's disgusting... but very profitable. Mr Wood et al, despite his/their personal successes, have created an institutionalised behemoth that is massively inefficient and will be very difficult to scale down... without risk of total collapse. 3- antiques. Yes. So much of what is out there is antique. Tons of equipment well past it's 20-25 year design life. OEM's long since absorbed, bust up, or out of business. No spare parts, no manuals, missing documents, no certification even. I've personally seen many young skilled techs confused by the 'old' equipment and reliant on the 'grey hairs' to sort out equipment, often with the use of hammer. Also I've seen various brand name inspection firms become completely bamboozled by 'mature' equipment and just blanket sign off on kit because they are under pressure to do so. 4- training. The whole industry is guilty of this. Aberdeen in particular. Why the heck did it take almost 30 years for the city best placed to train the folk to a reasonable standard? Look where this left us. Strathclyde took it on board and trained a lot of folk, but Aberdeen Uni's are all guilty of not doing enough from the beginning. Huge gaps in the workforce and competencies. 5- incompetence on industrial scale. As with both of these, when the money is flowing like water you'll attract a lot of non-talent and players. Sure it was fine from the get go with all hands on deck. Firemen became drillers, car mechanics became control room techs, their drinking buddies became instrument techs, etc... and look where it ended the industry. Plenty of big incidents. Plenty of old boys missing fingers or near crippled. Now we're supposed to be smarter. And this happens in the company, the services, engineering, you name it. Anybody working out there has seen incompetence from stewards right up to the OIMs and I'm sure can talk volumes on it. Same goes for on the beach. 6- weak regulation. Lots of things aren't reported, nor are they acted upon. Frustrating. The HSE is essentially a toothless mouthpiece and has not the balls to effect change. Far too much is trivialised and swept under the rug. The risk of losing tax revenue and profits trumps the risk to life... despite the headlines. Guess that is just as old as time. 7- no legacy planning. DECOM. No money. Not entirely unique but on a massive scale that is. 8- accelerated careers. Where can one go when you've gone from graduate or apprentice, or just lucky Bob from the pub... to big money earning fancy title manager in the span of a few years? That big job title and salary is a millstone now for many who can't even get a job at Tesco. I personally know of many who are actively down-playing their roles and job titles on CV's. Lying, but in the other way. Strange phenomenon. Those are just some of the issues plaguing this industry. With the return of profits and fewer skilled people about I suppose some will do well, but most will not. Those on the edge of competency and/or experience will be drummed out (without nepotism). Those that f'd up will most likely be frog marched out. And I suppose we can't ignore the effect of Brexit. This may or may not create a whole lot of issues, delays, uncertainties. Investment doesn't like their money being held up while politicians sort out the niggles. It will find the path of least resistance. So we're now on the down side of the curve. Lots have been cut, lots more to cut, and a whole lot to retire out. Way I see things is that there are still X number of helicopter flights carrying out the folk to make the system work... there are still supply vessels to and fro... there are still lots in training centres... but even with 'low' oil the profits have been big. Essentially, with all the above, and even in the harsh environment of the North Sea... the push is to cut and produce on shoestring, and in no way will it return to the overpriced mess that it was. There are still a ton of good paying jobs out there and will continue to be so, but not on the same scale. That will continue for quite a while, but the OPEX budgets will soon reach an inflexion point. At that point... along with (growing) DECOM liabilities, the industry will once again go a paradigm shift. We're ever more in the hands of private equity, and non-UK private equity. That's a big problem. Bean counters will make the call and companies, big companies, will buckle leaving their mess behind. The oil rag today is talking about 40k jobs to create, and 80k jobs due for retirement, and the industry being able to support between 65k and 130k people. That's a lot of big numbers, but rather pie in the sky.. ignorant of the impact of DECOM on the UKCS. Renewables will be supporting that much, albeit on much smaller budgets and with reduced salaries. Best the youngsters have your ducks lined up and not be looking at O&G as a career like your parents. Sadly Cash is spot on once again. One thing to add is that folks are quoting efficiency improvements as if companies are somehow magically working more effectively whereas what is often being referred to is cost efficiency as a result of headcount reductions and the slashing of contractors' rates and margins. (Maxing out on production also helps reduce per barrel unit costs but this is probably not sustainable). In the short the net effect of these 'efficiency' gains is to reduce the spending power in the local community, which should have a depressing effect on the housing market. That said, a crash is still not evident as there is still a reasonable amount of (misplaced?) confidence the good times will return......only time will tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shackleford Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Up to 5730 for sale on ASPC today (764 for rent). Do we reckon it's going to get to 6000? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diver Dan Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 2 hours ago, shackleford said: Up to 5730 for sale on ASPC today (764 for rent). Do we reckon it's going to get to 6000? And March's sales are on the Rightmove website now: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detail.html?locationIdentifier=REGION^4&searchLocation=Aberdeen 272 Sales recorded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EME Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 4 hours ago, shackleford said: Up to 5730 for sale on ASPC today (764 for rent). Do we reckon it's going to get to 6000? No, didn't last year, won't this year either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quine Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 I remember when we were gobsmacked when it reached 4000. I know solicitors in Aberdeen were too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diver Dan Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 49 minutes ago, EME said: No, didn't last year, won't this year either Go back and look at the figures for April/May last year, it had just created 5000 and was rising. Places are selling but only where the seller is motivated to accept lower offers than the surveyor promised them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 On 12/05/2018 at 15:18, EME said: No, didn't last year, won't this year either You're quite sure of that are you? You're absolutely certain that we won't actually see an increase of 5% in the number of homes for sale? Why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 On 10/05/2018 at 13:37, Oily said: That said, a crash is still not evident as there is still a reasonable amount of (misplaced?) confidence the good times will return......only time will tell. I would phrase that differently. A crash is not evident because there is still a reasonable amount of credit and cheap money. That knife edge is the ONLY thing keeping the UK from crashing wholesale from Aberdeen to London. Anybody that argues otherwise...stating it's green shoots or whatever emanating from a mature basin like the North Sea...has been smoking the good stuff. Several thoughts on that... the massive domestic debt obligations and the huge growth of renewables will ensure that IR's remain low...unless of course there is a concerted effort by external forces to crash the UK financially. Last thing HM Gov needs is millions of hungry fatties hoiked out of their mcmansions and trumbling angrily through town centres. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABZ_RVK Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 The price drop on this one is scary - Such a big drop in few months? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oily Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 18 minutes ago, cashinmattress said: You're quite sure of that are you? You're absolutely certain that we won't actually see an increase of 5% in the number of homes for sale? Why? I reckon we'll get pretty close to the 6k mark this year. The numbers have been climbing steadily all year. Another thing to bear in mind is all the unsold houses in the various new developments around the city and shire are not listed on ASPC register. It's anybody's guess as to how many there are, but potentially several hundred. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABZ_RVK Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, Oily said: I reckon we'll get pretty close to the 6k mark this year. The numbers have been climbing steadily all year. Another thing to bear in mind is all the unsold houses in the various new developments around the city and shire are not listed on ASPC register. It's anybody's guess as to how many there are, but potentially several hundred. I keep getting several offers from the likes of Barratts, Scotia Homes and Dandara . They seems to be throwing in a lot of goodies to attract buyers. There are plenty of new ones coming in Bridge of Don area too. Cala has started work on the new development on Park Way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 4 hours ago, Oily said: I reckon we'll get pretty close to the 6k mark this year. The numbers have been climbing steadily all year. Another thing to bear in mind is all the unsold houses in the various new developments around the city and shire are not listed on ASPC register. It's anybody's guess as to how many there are, but potentially several hundred. Indeed we will. Its 5737 as of the time stamp on this post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 ASPC 5745 as of the time stamp on this post. That's just 255 properties to go... or another 4.4% growth in stock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGS Posted May 16, 2018 Share Posted May 16, 2018 How do the rental figures compare folks ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted May 16, 2018 Share Posted May 16, 2018 ASPC 5750 as of the time stamp on this post. @CGS.... you're looking at cheap rent if you know how to haggle... Citylets 1348 , Gumtree has 961, ASPC 767 flats/houses to let. Unless you bought for a song... you'd be best offloading your property portfolio.... if that's even possible with the growing stock. Going to be a lot of folk stuck with empty houses as there will be no recovery... and George Osbourne's much vaunted tax cuts a few years ago for operators has just seen that capital used to invest elsewhere... anywhere but the North Sea. None of that trickled down to the NE. Lot's of 'efficiency cuts'... lots more to come... all with almost no re-investment. Criminal how this UK Gov has squandered it. Hat's off to the Norgies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 ASPC 5768 as of the time stamp on this post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGS Posted May 19, 2018 Share Posted May 19, 2018 ASPC 5712 as of today - is that a reflection of 38 keys being exchanged on a Friday since CashIM posted ? Seems odd ... Also surprised that of those 5712, only 857 are fixed price ? --- Oil price hovering at $80 and the FTSE at an all time high powered by the likes of BP, Shell, Total and ENI ... This is the highest the oil price has been since 2014. Rates across the supply chain ought to rise across the board Total's CEO has talked of oil hitting $100 later this year.......not convinced that's a good thing but proof that geopolitics is never to be underestimated... It shall be interesting to see what comes out last years UKCS licence rounds. Licences to be awarded imminently (Q2) ... https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/news-publications/news/2017/strong-response-to-30th-offshore-licensing-round/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diver Dan Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 5782 On my phone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shackleford Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 Up to 5804 now! With the Scottish fitba season over and nearly four weeks til the World Cup, this is my excitement now ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 3 hours ago, shackleford said: Up to 5804 now! With the Scottish fitba season over and nearly four weeks til the World Cup, this is my excitement now ? Yeah, that's just mental. If you were to look at it from the view that each house will have some level of occupancy, it begins to make sense. Scotland is on average somewhere between 2.2 and 2.5 per household. All these jobs can't permanently disappear as the basin goes into DECOM mode and stay occupied. Further, if you look it at the view of finance; an average of £220k its about £1.3bn of capital that isn't changing hands with all the middlemen taking their cuts...lawyers, agents, mortgage lenders and brokers, surveyors, you name it. Then there is the lost revenue in taxes, stamp duties, etc... But it all makes sense... and IMO is only the start of a long dragged out rout on the NE of Scotland. Folk who've been there probably remember when the CRINE initiatives were kicked off and the effects that had... but this time the basin isn't looking to achieve the same goals as the 90's North Sea. Further, the basin in in DECOM now. Those ultra low vessel & other rates brought about by the 2014 dip created the opportunity to DECOM on the cheap. No efficiency in having salvagers hauling away scrap to NL, B, or elsewhere. Mental. There are many who are so far in debt that it's torn apart their families and driven them to the ugly side of depression. I know a fair few marriages that have ended because of debt incurred during the great re-alignment of the Can't say folk weren't warned to put the nuts away for the winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stingray192 Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 85 Virginia street on at fixed price £100k 2 bedrooms a friend sold one of these for £180ish about 8 years ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EME Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 1 hour ago, stingray192 said: 85 Virginia street on at fixed price £100k 2 bedrooms a friend sold one of these for £180ish about 8 years ago Horrible part of the city to live in, no photos of the inside so must be in a bad way on the inside. Not surprised at the price to be honest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stingray192 Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 its no worse than most of central Aberdeen and its not an old tenement its a fairly decent sized two bedroom apartment, but at a realistic price Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 The other ones in that same section in good condition are on for offers over 129k or 135k. So either way still a fair drop from 180k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stingray192 Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 a friend put an offer on one about 4-5 years ago, he put in £165K and wasn't the highest, it was a repossession needing work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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