CGS Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 New Tie Backs from BP & Proof of Increased Collaboration BP said today that it would develop two new North Sea fields capable of pumping out 30,000 barrels of oil per day. Investment in the Alligin and Vorlich satellite fields is expected to total around £420million. Together, they hold about 50million barrels of recoverable oil and gas. First oil from both fields is slated for 2020 Alligin will be tied back to BP’s Glen Lyon vessel, stationed west of Shetland. Subsea 7 will install the pipelines for Alligin. The project will be led by Subsea 7’s Aberdeen base with offshore activities expected to start in 2019. Vorlich, in the central North Sea, will be hooked up to the FPF-1 facility, which currently serves Ithaca Energy’s Stella field. BP said the projects were a great example of exploiting smaller fields located near existing hubs. ........... “BP’s Vorlich and Alligin are both relatively small fields, which signals a change of tack from BP after its massive west of Shetland projects in recent years. But such large scale endeavours are few and far between in the UK. Smaller fields continue to be the lifeblood of the shelf, so it is encouraging to see a major like BP getting involved. “As well as more production for BP, these new developments also provide a boost to the nearby platforms they tie into, improving economics and allowing them to produce for longer. ------------------ New Tie Back from Serica Serica Energy has decided to connect its North Sea Columbus field to Shell’s Shearwater platform. https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/168382/new-pipeline-to-solve-erskine-wax-woes/ The London-headquartered firm was deciding between the offtake route as well as an alternative tie-back option to Chrysaor’s Lomond platform. Serica said both had similar benefits but there was a “clear commercial advantage” to the Shearwater route. Columbus, which Serica has a 50% stake in, will be connected to a proposed pipeline between the nearby Arran field and the Shearwater platform.First gas is targeted for 2021, which Serica says is around a year further away than the Lomond option. The company will now submit a development plan for the project by the end of June to the Oil and Gas Authority. The Columbus gas field has estimated reserves at 6.7million barrels of oil equivalent. Another Bypass - more proof of Value in the UKCS Serica Energy has announced that a new pipeline is being constructed to solve reccurring issues with wax build-up at the Erskine field. "Wax restrictions have been a consistent problem in recent years at the export pipeline which is linked to the Lomond field, operated by Chrysaor. Serica holds an 18% interest in Erskine. A new export bypass pipeline – proposed by Chrysaor – is now being constructed to provide a long-term solution to the issue and is expected to be completed in Q3 of this year"Serica chief executive Mitch Flegg said: “In 2016 and 2017 there have been wax build-up problems. It’s on the export line for Lomond as Erskine is produced via the Lomond platform. We have repaired the problem each time the wax problem has occurred. “However, all of the interested parties have got together and said that if we solve it again, it might reoccur in time so we need to put a permanent solution in place. “That will involve putting a new pipeline in place to solve the issue and we have committed to that work.” Further Tie Back at Beryl for Apache John J. Christmann IV, Apache's CEO and president, said, "The Garten discovery marks our fourth commercial discovery in the Beryl area in the past three years spanning several play types ranging from the Tertiary to the Triassic. Apache's strategy to focus on exploration near operated facilities is set to deliver significant production without the long cycle time of large scale projects." The Garten discovery well will be suspended as a future producer and tied back to the Beryl Alpha platform. Apache is working closely with the Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) to obtain the regulatory approvals to initiate production, which is anticipated in the first quarter of 2019. Dr. Andy Samuel, chief executive at the Oil and Gas Authority said, "Garten marks the 2,500th offshore exploration well on the UK Continental Shelf and is an excellent start for exploration drilling in 2018. Apache has created new opportunities by consistently investing in high-quality 3D seismic data to uncover near-field prospectivity around the prolific Beryl Field. Modern data and the application of new technologies are key to stimulating exploration and successfully delivering the full potential of the UKCS." http://www.worldoil.com/news/2018/4/1/apache-announces-significant-discovery-at-garten-prospect Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortbread Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 On 4/12/2018 at 2:40 AM, cashinmattress said: https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/energy-firm-with-more-than-700-staff-in-north-east-to-axe-450-jobs-in-uk1/ A spokeswoman for ConocoPhillips said: “It is anticipated that around 450 positions will be lost across ConocoPhillips’ UK assets between October 1 and April 2020. http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16152815.More_than_500_jobs_at_risk_in_North_Sea_Oil_firms/ ...while Petrofac said up to 90 jobs were expected to go More folk out of work. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Offshore-Rig-Builders-Face-New-Reality.html Plus there are more layoffs happening in Baker Hughes and GE, but very hush hush! Quote Besides decommissioning, maintenance and building smaller platforms, there is always the renewables industry. Kvaerner and local peer Aker Solutions are both already active in renewables: wind power more specifically. A third sector player, Subsea 7, is also increasing its activity in wind power installations. This is an odd statement.... I gather they are all competing for the rather meagre wind farm development budgets? CAPEX here is orders of magnitudes smaller than O&G projects... guess they'll have to sharpen their pencils and keep on contractors who'll work for much less. All the EPC folk will be using the same Dutch or Belgian actors for heavy lifting. O&M budgets for WT's are minuscule in comparison to their O&G counterparts. The 'there is always the renewable industry' is a red herring. Aberdeen isn't and most certainly won't ever be the UK's hub around offshore wind, tidal, or wave energy. I'm not even sure the UK will have a renewables hotspot yet...although there is forecast for some significant job growth in the sector. Futher, I'm not so sure about the forecasts for offshore wind... they're fraught with problems. The UK needs new nuclear plants. Period. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/london-array-offshore-wind-turbines-near-kent-wearing-too-fast-qdv76g7cm I would be interesting to see how competitive their quotes are for 'renewable' contracts. Even though it is short term they do provide some immediate relief. Plus, wonder how crews will adapt to real world conditions or are we going to see more strike action soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABZ_RVK Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Some properties are still going quickly and in closing date https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/363852/65-Mile-End-Avenue/Aberdeen/ price still looks quote high compared to the work involved to upgrade this house. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diver Dan Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 19 minutes ago, ABZ_RVK said: Some properties are still going quickly and in closing date https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/363852/65-Mile-End-Avenue/Aberdeen/ price still looks quote high compared to the work involved to upgrade this house. The home report is from January and the contact number is in Edinburgh, indicating a possibly motivated seller. It would be interesting to see the final sale price. My guess is that it could be someone who's moved on (either spiritually or geographically) and a lucky low-balling bidder could get it for under asking. There are loads of unsold places on ASPC with home reports dated 2015 and earlier, so not all sellers are particularly motivated. I think the mix of family sized properties such as this one has definitely increased in the past few months on ASPC. In other news, the Q1 Citylets report should be out by early next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diver Dan Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 (edited) On 25/04/2017 at 4:15 PM, Diver Dan said: Finally back over the 5000 Mark on ASPC this afternoon. What a difference a year makes. ASPC above 5500. Edit to add: What has changed in a year? Houses keep appearing on ASPC and most of them just stay there. The buyers aren't in any hurry to sell, there are even some places with home reports dated in 2013/14. I'm getting pressure to buy something, anything, but there's nothing that seems to represent good value on the market, anything even resembling it gets bought fairly quickly while the overpriced ordure keeps piling up week after week. Edited April 17, 2018 by Diver Dan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABZ_RVK Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 There are few more houses that are advertised in Rightmove website but not in ASPC. So the count is more than 5500. Sellers are holding on the prices as the interest rates are low and they are hoping improvement in oil prices will reflect in the housing market gradually. Its very difficult to make out if the property prices are falling or has it stabilized. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABZ_RVK Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 Some strange figures... https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/363424/175-Oakhill-Grange/Aberdeen/ Above property purchases on May 2013 for £299K now asking price £320K https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/359893/159-Oakhill-Grange/Aberdeen/ Last Purchase: £464 on May 2013 now asking price is £460 doesn't look like there is any housing crises :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortbread Posted April 19, 2018 Share Posted April 19, 2018 On 17/04/2018 at 2:44 PM, Diver Dan said: Edit to add: What has changed in a year? Houses keep appearing on ASPC and most of them just stay there. The buyers aren't in any hurry to sell, there are even some places with home reports dated in 2013/14. I'm getting pressure to buy something, anything, but there's nothing that seems to represent good value on the market, anything even resembling it gets bought fairly quickly while the overpriced ordure keeps piling up week after week. 19 hours ago, ABZ_RVK said: Sellers are holding on the prices as the interest rates are low and they are hoping improvement in oil prices will reflect in the housing market gradually. Its very difficult to make out if the property prices are falling or has it stabilized. House prices have fallen by a third! Advertised prices bear no correlation to actual sale prices. The stubborn ones are simply staying unsold for longer. No one in their right mind in Aberdeen will buy a house without asking for a chunky discount! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortbread Posted April 19, 2018 Share Posted April 19, 2018 Registers of Scotland, Feb'18 report: Aberdeen fall continues -1.5% Quote Registers of Scotland Registration and Transformation Director Charles Keegan said: “Average prices in Scotland continued their upward trend in February with an increase of 6.2 per cent when compared to February 2017. Average prices have been increasing each month since March 2016, when compared with the same month of the previous year. Average price increases were recorded in the vast majority (28) of local authorities in January 2018, when comparing prices with the previous year. The biggest price increases were in Argyll and Bute, City of Edinburgh and West Lothian, where average prices increased by 13.3 per cent to £144,404, 11.2 per cent to £250,986 and 11.2 per cent to £153,230 respectively. Decreases were recorded in Aberdeen City and Stirling where prices fell by 1.5 per cent to £159,653 and 0.5 per cent to £174,076 respectively. https://www.ros.gov.uk/about-us/news/2018/monthly-house-price-index-statistics-for-february-2018-published https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-scotland-february-2018/uk-house-price-index-scotland-february-2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABZ_RVK Posted April 19, 2018 Share Posted April 19, 2018 1 hour ago, shortbread said: No one in their right mind in Aberdeen will buy a house without asking for a chunky discount! What is your definition of a chunky discount? Most of the sellers are really not going to provide any chunky discount from the current valuations as the current price drop would have already been reflected on the property valuations. So why would someone give further discount on a already adjusted valuations? From what i am seeing only BTL'ers are disposing of their BTL properties in City center desperately. Everyone else is trying to hold on to the value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortbread Posted April 19, 2018 Share Posted April 19, 2018 40 minutes ago, ABZ_RVK said: What is your definition of a chunky discount? Most of the sellers are really not going to provide any chunky discount from the current valuations as the current price drop would have already been reflected on the property valuations. So why would someone give further discount on a already adjusted valuations? From what i am seeing only BTL'ers are disposing of their BTL properties in City center desperately. Everyone else is trying to hold on to the value. I do not think valuations still truly reflect the fall in Aberdeen property prices, and it is falling month after month. Plus the concept of holding onto value can be questioned when one has a mortgage and simply paying into negative equity. I am quite sure none of these Feb'18 transactions sold for their advertised prices! And I'm not even half way through the February transactions! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diver Dan Posted April 19, 2018 Share Posted April 19, 2018 Citylets Q4 report is out now. https://www.citylets.co.uk/research/reports/property-rental-report-scotland-2018-q1/ Aberdeen has dropped below Glasgow for average rental prices with an average of -4.2% year on year. Time on market is increasing and yields are dropping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGS Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 Aberdeen was the top performing city economy in Scotland across the final months of 2017 as it diversifies from oil and gas into other sectors, according to a new report. https://www.insider.co.uk/news/aberdeen-best-performing-city-economy-12372320 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pmgdawau Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 54 minutes ago, CGS said: Aberdeen was the top performing city economy in Scotland across the final months of 2017 as it diversifies from oil and gas into other sectors, according to a new report. https://www.insider.co.uk/news/aberdeen-best-performing-city-economy-12372320 and those sectors were ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diver Dan Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 35 minutes ago, pmgdawau said: and those sectors were ? It says, "manufacturing and business services". I don't doubt that the availability of competitively priced commercial accommodation has a part to play in this news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted April 22, 2018 Share Posted April 22, 2018 21 hours ago, pmgdawau said: and those sectors were ? Indeed. The report here states "it was actually manufacturing and business service activities which performed particularly well in Q4 2017". Uh huh. What exactly does that include we ask. I suspect a lot of this, probably most, is in how monies are being moved about or allocated in ledgers... versus how it is materialising in physical benefit to the community. As is typical with this kind of report there is a motivation to phrase conclusions in a certain way. Note that further on they state that Aberdeen's employment 'Powerhouse' standing is at 23, behind other power houses like Sunderland and Stoke-on-Trent... The cities report stated that Aberdeen was the UK's slowest growing, with an actual decline. The only one. And we all know about the housing situation. Plus the ongoing loss of jobs... high paying jobs... often in their 100's per corporate cull of folk earning £40k+... forever. As with most of these economic metrics, I call BS. https://www.amazon.co.uk/How-Lie-Statistics-Penguin-Business/dp/0140136290 Headline grabbing... brill... everybody get to the Audi dealership? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortbread Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 Good detailed analysis http://www.propertychecklists.co.uk/articles/property-price-report-april-2018 Quote Kate's comprehensive property price update for April 2018 - data from the UK house price index The national market movements continue to hide the huge variety of changes to property prices at a regional level but also between the indices. Looking at the average annual change since 2005, the last 12 years show that on an annual basis, property prices have grown by an average of 2.5% through to 3.7%, while current annual property prices are up between -0.7% (LSL) through to 4.6% (UKHPI). But overall it looks like we might be lucky to see a 2% rise this year. Rightmove’s latest data on the percentage of offers achieved versus asking prices shows that, regionally, Scotland is performing best with offers coming in at just 0.6% below asking while London – with its current struggling market – is achieving a much lower offer rate of 4.4%, near the North East’s figure of 4.5%. Meanwhile on a city basis, Hometrack’s results show that Aberdeen property prices continue to fall through the floor -7.7% year on year, while the top performers are Liverpool at 7.8% and ‘nearby’ Edinburgh at 8%. That’s a huge difference in performance and shows how the main drivers of house price performance currently appear to be local economic conditions as opposed to national conditions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 With the irrational hotel building going on... surely this is an indicator that Aberdeen should defy supply/demand economics and build more... https://stv.tv/news/east-central/1413056-scottish-hotels-were-the-uk-s-best-performing-in-2017/ Quote However, Aberdeen, which has been hit by the oil industry downturn, experienced the lowest hotel occupancy rate in the UK at 63.4% - a decline of more than 5% on the figures for 2016. Also.... 'tis the season... the big boys will be releasing 1st quarter results... and I reckon most will be neutral or negative... which will undoubtedly spur on more M&A activity. Keep yourselves solvent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABZ_RVK Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 On 4/13/2018 at 10:05 AM, ABZ_RVK said: Some properties are still going quickly and in closing date https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/363852/65-Mile-End-Avenue/Aberdeen/ price still looks quote high compared to the work involved to upgrade this house. This property came in just last week and is under offer already . Similarly other properties in AB15 areas have been under offer in about 2 weeks. Seems like there is increase in activity in and around AB15 area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortbread Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 (edited) MARCH'18 House price Index : Aberdeen continues to fall (-6.9%) Quote UK city house price inflation was +5.5% in the 12 months to March 2018, up from 3.7% a year earlier. The annual rate of growth ranges from +8.1% in Edinburgh to -6.9% in Aberdeen with Cambridge the only other city registering nominal price falls (-1.2%). https://www.hometrack.com/media/502882/hometrack-uk-cities-house-price-index-report-mar2018-final.pdf Edited April 25, 2018 by shortbread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diver Dan Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 I'm seeing plenty of price 'updates' in my inbox every day. "Oh, you're knocking £2k off the 'offers over' price of your pokey former council flat in a poor state of repair and decoration with electric heating and an EPC of F a dodgy neighbourhood? Hold my beer while I find the chequebook!" If you were to believe that 6.9% statistic to be evenly distributed across all property types, my current front-runner is actually dropping in price faster than the amount I'm paying in rent for my current place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortbread Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 38 minutes ago, Diver Dan said: If you were to believe that 6.9% statistic to be evenly distributed across all property types, my current front-runner is actually dropping in price faster than the amount I'm paying in rent for my current place. It's actually worse when you take into account the mortgage and the interest paid on that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABZ_RVK Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 I am not sure how these numbers stack up. In some areas i have not seen much reduction in house prices. Property prices in some areas for example AB15 area that were sold in 2013 are same as what other properties are selling now in 2018. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortbread Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 18 minutes ago, ABZ_RVK said: I am not sure how these numbers stack up. In some areas i have not seen much reduction in house prices. Property prices in some areas for example AB15 area that were sold in 2013 are same as what other properties are selling now in 2018. Each researcher have their own methodologies based on actual sales information collected. So it is not based on a 'finger in the air' assumption. They are all bound to vary, but nonetheless collectively point to a continued decline in the local house prices. For Hometrack: Quote 1 . 1. What methodology is used to create the Hometrack House Price Indices? We use a repeat sales based methodology. A repeat sales methodology uses ‘pairs’ of price points for properties that have sold more than once to compare price change on a like-for- like basis over time. 2 . 2. How accurate is the Hometrack House Price Index? Our primary focus when building house price indices is to create index series that represent the actual trends in the underlying market as closely as possible. We benchmark our national and regional series to monitor their performance over time. 3 . 3. What data do you use to construct the Hometrack House Price Indices? The Hometrack indices are based upon a large database comprising 100% of recorded sales prices from the Land Registry ‘Price Paid’ dataset and equivalent data from the Registers of Scotland. This price paid data is supplemented by mortgage valuation data. All data is obtained monthly and placed through comprehensive cleansing and verification processes. We have sufficient data to produce robust monthly house price series https://www.hometrack.com/uk/insight/uk-cities-house-price-index/Print?nodeId=18735&type=methodology Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 2 hours ago, shortbread said: It's actually worse when you take into account the mortgage and the interest paid on that! The only thing keeping Aberdeen from absolute collapse is low interest rates. We're well beyond oil price having any real impacts now. The industry is broken down and in tatters.... ever more under the control of unaccountable, non-UK private equity. A recipe for disaster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.