Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

[ccc]

Its going to be even worse for any onshore type bods thinking they can just move down to Edinburgh and move over to being a PM or planner in finance instead. They couldn't have picked a worse time. As I am just finding out myself !!

And with no recent finance experience - unless they are amazingly lucky or have a pal who opens a door for them - their chances are literally zero.

[sfr]

Another MSM piece for ABZ

Not a particularly riveting commentary...

http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/what-future-will-aberdeen-have-when-the-oil-runs-out-1-4242855

[regprentice]

16 hours ago, ccc said:

Its going to be even worse for any onshore type bods thinking they can just move down to Edinburgh and move over to being a PM or planner in finance instead. They couldn't have picked a worse time. As I am just finding out myself !!

And with no recent finance experience - unless they are amazingly lucky or have a pal who opens a door for them - their chances are literally zero.

Indeed. In the last month RBS cancelled their Williams and Glyn project putting 800 contractors out of work in scotland (7000 globaly). I understand the finance orientated people are picking up work fairly easily but i'm hearing the 'pure' project people , pmo, testing etc are being told it will be the turn of the year before things pick up.

Plenty happening in finance requiring projects (ifrs9 and icb ringfencing on top of normal stuff) but its all heavily accoubting driven and requires clear finance knowledge. 

[ccc]

Yep - I know all about the W and G numbers - in detail - I obviously cannot say how !! :)

Your Aberdeen O and G project bods worst nightmares have all come at once.

[cashinmattress]

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/9976/oil-supply-will-exceed-demand-until-late-2017-ieas-birol-warns/

Quote

Global oil output will exceed demand until late 2017, the head of the International Energy Agency said before major producing nations gather for talks.

And from the previous Beeb article posted by shortbread, highlighting the extent of monies floating about oil and gas in Aberdeen;

Quote

Among many startling figures in the Oil and Gas UK economic report, one stand-out is the decline in committed investment from £4.3 billion last year to £100m this year.

I reckon that tier one service companies are ALL in huge trouble and their way of operating & business model will be obsolete. The little guy is coming back in a big way.

All you EPC types beware... and as ccc notes, your services and skills are not required (or even wanted) anywhere.

Back to property.... a bust in residential and commercial... yet they keep building?

https://www.property-magazine.eu/industrial-performance-counters-weaker-office-sector-39297.html

Quote

For the first time since oil prices began their sharp fall in late 2014, annual total returns for Aberdeen offices have moved into negative territory at -0.75%.

Just what a shinking community with ever more depressed income and standards of living needs.... more offices and shops?

Edited September 29, 2016 by cashinmattress

[Aberdeen567]

https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/347471/2-Friarsfield-Walk/Aberdeen/

Think this is the first of the new Cults CALA homes to be resold...

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/property/2-friarsfield-walk/cults/aberdeen/ab15-9pw/31424766

Paid £830k for it in October 2014, with stamp duty of £33k.

Presumably they'll be looking at nearly a £200k 2 year loss when it finally does sell.  Although with all the competing CALA incentives they're up against it may take a while...

[Crumbless]

18 hours ago, cashinmattress said:

 

I reckon that tier one service companies are ALL in huge trouble and their way of operating & business model will be obsolete. The little guy is coming back in a big way.

 

Having just come back from working for a little guy who got work from one of the big guys i believe you are making things up.

[cashinmattress]

 

2 hours ago, Crumbless said:

Having just come back from working for a little guy who got work from one of the big guys i believe you are making things up.

Which business models will survive this downturn and endure for the remaining decade or two in the North Sea? Big or little?

Will decommissioning on a budget 2/3 funded by the UK government accept Iain Woods over engineered middleman claptrap? Will the taxpayer?

Fortunately time will prove one of our assertions correct, right? (I am classifying tier one service here as the oil and gas EPCs and the like....)

[Crumbless]

Just now, cashinmattress said:

 

Which business models will survive this downturn and endure for the remaining decade or two in the North Sea? Big or little?

The companies who are organised well enough to do the job correctly. My experience of small companies is they take on jobs they're not skilled enough to do hire equipment that means you're doing the job by the skin of your teeth. If anything from what i've seen smaller companies are getting less of the work.

Do you work in the O and G industry?

[cashinmattress]

 

1 hour ago, Crumbless said:

The companies who are organised well enough to do the job correctly. My experience of small companies is they take on jobs they're not skilled enough to do hire equipment that means you're doing the job by the skin of your teeth. If anything from what i've seen smaller companies are getting less of the work.

Do you work in the O and G industry?

Agree on the first part to a degree. Disorganised companies that blag their way into jobs through nepotism or outright fraud.... they should fold and/or be sued into receivership, or have MD's locked up. Also the companies that fail to vet said disorganised companies are equally culpable, especially when a good auditor can expose your dirty laundry in short order.

However, there are plenty (and growing number) of well established/mature SME's who work with O&G who outright refuse to work with EPCs as they don't agree with the 'organisation' and business models.

There is also a steady change within supermajors to bring a lot of the engineering back in house and not rely on 100's of Iain Woods' pedigreed 'engineers' and 'planners'.

[AD14]

27 minutes ago, cashinmattress said:

There is also a steady change within supermajors to bring a lot of the engineering back in house and not rely on 100's of Iain Woods' pedigreed 'engineers' and 'planners'.

Yes, I've heard this too, and not just the majors either. 

But then, isn't that how things used to be? From what I understand, lots of things used to be done in-house until the last downturn in the late 90s, with outsourcing then being utilised as a cost cutting measure, which has allowed the various contractors to expand over the years, and for this to become the accepted normal business model.

 

 

 

[AD14]

Into Q4 now, so Q3 reports should be released at various times this month.

 

 

[cashinmattress]

No bailouts for the North Sea players apparently...

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/120941/exclusive-tories-wash-hands-oil-gas-industry/

Quote

The chancellor is poised to snub further pleas for help from the oil and gas industry amid the continuing downturn. 

Somebody planning for the future here?

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/1044693/plans-launched-for-374-bedroom-student-accommodation-in-aberdeen/

Quote

Plans have been launched to convert the site of a former snooker club in the centre of Aberdeen into student accommodation. Property developer Downing has applied for planning permission to build a 374-unit block on John Street near the Woolmanhill roundabout.

Nae drilling = nae money.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/scotland-business/1045967/north-sea-exploration-remain-depressed-without-better-estimates-analyst-says/?piano_t=1

Asking prices keep dropping, inventory keeps growing.

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices_report.htm?location=aberdeen&lastyear=1

ASPC 5032...

 

EDIT: Attention grabbing headlines, investors follow?

http://www.scotsman.com/business/markets-economy/edinburgh-is-new-aberdeen-of-private-rental-market-1-4248260?

Quote

For as long as I can remember, oil capital Aberdeen has been the most expensive city in Scotland to rent a home, with rents for all types of property notoriously high. However, this year the Granite City’s reign has come to an end. Due to the downturn in the oil and gas industry, rents in Aberdeen are falling dramatically.

How many suckers investors are reeling with voids, missed payments, overpriced rental property in a saturated market, getting worse every passing week?

Don't believe the hype, eh? (right Spamish?)

And a typically gloomy article, perhaps one that is closer to reality... at least over in Houston and the GoM they have vast resources on hand. We don't.

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/texanomics/article/Future-for-oil-and-gas-workers-gets-darker-9621773.php

Makes for pretty stark reading for anybody currently in the industry or pushing their kids into oil and gas here. Worse if you have been pushed out and have little in the way of qualifications or experience (you EPC desk jockey types included).

PM's and schedulers, bla-de-blah 'engineers' won't have many choice, as the whole 'engineer & PM' industry is hemorrhaging jobs globally (especially not helped by a possible Brexit).

Edited October 4, 2016 by cashinmattress

[EME]

Slagging off "planners" and "schedulers" again I see as if you all know what they actually do.

Try typing "primavera" into a job site search and note how many jobs come up elsewhere in the UK.

A good planner will find relevant work outside of Aberdeen.

[babo456]

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/north-of-scotland/1045485/cala-to-build-on-recovery-in-aberdeen-housing-market/

Recovery in Aberdeen housing market?????!!!!!

[ccc]

I just had a Google of Primavera. Lots of others out there. Using these things is far from difficult. The main thing stopping folk getting into it is because it's usually very dull !! Even if the money can be very good.

 

Trust me I know.

[delboypass]

Who wants to try flipping in this Aberdeen market..

Remember this semi that went through about 6 auctions.. 29 N Silver St, Aberdeen AB10 1RJ

They eventually bought it at auction Aug at: £248,000

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/property/29-north-silver-street/aberdeen/ab10-1rj/5352

Now trying to flip it Oct at £295,000 (I hope they burn!!)

https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/347627/29-North-Silver-Street/Aberdeen/

[AD14]

9 hours ago, delboypass said:

Who wants to try flipping in this Aberdeen market..

Remember this semi that went through about 6 auctions.. 29 N Silver St, Aberdeen AB10 1RJ

They eventually bought it at auction Aug at: £248,000

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/property/29-north-silver-street/aberdeen/ab10-1rj/5352

Now trying to flip it Oct at £295,000 (I hope they burn!!)

https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/347627/29-North-Silver-Street/Aberdeen/

Probably someone hoping the market will recover soon.

Still seems to be enough people willing to pay bubble prices for property, though, so they might get lucky if they're prepared to wait.

 

[Oily]

9 hours ago, delboypass said:

Who wants to try flipping in this Aberdeen market..

Remember this semi that went through about 6 auctions.. 29 N Silver St, Aberdeen AB10 1RJ

They eventually bought it at auction Aug at: £248,000

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/property/29-north-silver-street/aberdeen/ab10-1rj/5352

Now trying to flip it Oct at £295,000 (I hope they burn!!)

https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/347627/29-North-Silver-Street/Aberdeen/

I noticed a planning application to convert the house into flats a couple of weeks ago. 

[cashinmattress]

11 hours ago, ccc said:

I just had a Google of Primavera. Lots of others out there. Using these things is far from difficult. The main thing stopping folk getting into it is because it's usually very dull !! Even if the money can be very good.

 

Trust me I know.

Interpretation of all the data... engineering/legal/commercial/logistical, being able to spot report, invoice & part-invoice, forecast... yes that is the art. Pays damn well too. But that only comes with extensive experience, education, and qualifications. And with that, why the feck would you take a job & the salary of a planner with that skill set FFS?

Putting together a fancy Gannt chart... not much art in that.

[spyguy]

http://www.thebusinessdesk.com/yorkshire/news/740748-600-jobs-on-the-line-at-leeds-engineering-firm.html?news_section=253059

 

[AD14]

RoS August numbers released. Whoever called a reduction in August prices (I think it was reverend cat) was right.

For the City:

Average value: £192,608, an over 8% reduction on last August (which itself was an over 5% reduction from August 2014). Lower than 2012 levels.

Number of sales: 358. Lowest August on record (albeit only 2 less than August 2009).

Edit: worth reminding that these statistics do not take into consideration the property itself, only the total value and number of sales. It could be that, say, high end properties haven't really been selling much and hence skewing things to the lower end, rather than an actual drop in value and sale prices (although the later is also possible). But YoY reductions like this show that something is happening.

Edited October 5, 2016 by AD14

[shortbread]

My first house move since marriage. Looking for a 2 bed property in the city and the market is crazy. I have never seen so many options, this has just compounded our confusion.

That said still a few landlords out there who are sticking to their rents despite being unoccupied for a good few months. On the other hand home owners with rental properties in the edge of the city are struggling to find tenants and are having a fire sale! 

I think there's a  lot of activity in the rental market right now with tenants looking to upgrade or trying for lower rents. In a way it was a lot simpler a few years back, find an empty flat in Aberdeen, if its decent enough one puts down a deposit and no questions asked. Now you do a lot of research, multiple viewings, haggling.....that said its a good problem to have.

[ccc]

You renting ? If so just fire 'cheeky' offers at hunners of them !!

Nothing to lose.

If I was in Aberdeen right now I would be having some fun.

[cashinmattress]

1 hour ago, shortbread said:

My first house move since marriage. Looking for a 2 bed property in the city and the market is crazy. I have never seen so many options, this has just compounded our confusion.

That said still a few landlords out there who are sticking to their rents despite being unoccupied for a good few months. On the other hand home owners with rental properties in the edge of the city are struggling to find tenants and are having a fire sale! 

I think there's a  lot of activity in the rental market right now with tenants looking to upgrade or trying for lower rents. In a way it was a lot simpler a few years back, find an empty flat in Aberdeen, if its decent enough one puts down a deposit and no questions asked. Now you do a lot of research, multiple viewings, haggling.....that said its a good problem to have.

Heck, why buy now? Unless you are stumping up a seriously big down payment and getting 30 or 40% off valuation.

Get yourself rented, demand a month or two off and -20% (or better) on rates. Have them pay the council tax... etc...

Plenty of folk up here with rental property with lots of equity & tiny mortgages that can take a hit.

Keep yourself grounded and be frugal, all the while put a bit more away for your deposit.

Get a no, move on. Kind of how a proper market is supposed to work.

Nobody in this town is predicting recovery, or even the bottom yet.... except perhaps for those selling haha