Election

[The Masked Tulip]

Turning on the news just now we had both the Tories and the Liberals talking about their election manifestos.... almost as if an election had already been called... Sounds as if they think Blair is going to call a very early one...

[he who dares]

Yeah, personally i believe blair is going to call an early election, just a feeling. If he does i think there must be some major bad news coming in the month or two after the election (interest rates hike/tax rises?)etc.

There may be trouble ahead....

[Mr Tickle]

There was a small discussion on five live last week with John pinar (sp) about the possibility of an early election, although he personally still favoured a May election, the general direction of the disscussion was putting forward the case for an early one ....... heres hoping.

I still think there will need to be a decent rate increase for the idiots to wake up!

Heres hoping

[Timmy Manson]

There is every sign that growth in the UK economy is beginning to slow, sharply, possibly coming in at 2% in 2005 ( not Mr B's 3% ). We are going to see higher unemployment, lower confidence, falling house prices by Qtr4 2005, the knock on will be that either public spending will need to be cut ( anyone remember the winter of discontent ) or taxes will have to go up. Either way Labour are scrambling to get the election in before the bad news can no longer be covered up by Labour spin & a distinctly pro government BBC.

.....remember having failed to deliver on public services and been found out over Iraq, TB is fighting this election on Labours economic record.

[Property Dreamer]

When it happens really doesn't matter, labour will win a landslide which will be talked up and spun as nationwide backing of govt policies across the board. The smug, self satisfied looks will be wall to wall. The media are portraying the conservatives as a party of buffoons (they don't do themselves any favours either) and due to the effects 'Global Dumbening' it seems that the bulk of people in this country believes what the media tells them. JebuzAllahBudda save us

[Bluelady]

It seems to me that the Tories are deliberately portraying themselves as a party of unelectable buffoons because they don't want to be in government presiding over a recession. They've been there and done that - once is unfortunate, twice would be careless.

[IP Newcomer]

1. politicalbetting.co.uk is still showing overwhelming odds in favour of an election in the second quarter of the year. Whatever the chatter is, no one is putting much money on it being anything other than May.

2. The Tories are in such disarray that they would be unlikely to take enough advantage of the drip-drip bad news that a housing crash would create in its early stages that Blair has little to fear from a May poll. Remember 1992. In fact some bad economic news may make it easier to sack Brown (if that's what he really wants to do) after a May election than after a February election.

3. Apart from the chatter, where is the evidence that the Government is actually planning anything? Posters? Mysteriously cancelled or booked holidays and engagements? I've no doubt they've considered an early election, but at this stage we'd be getting a whole host of telltale signs.

4. Does it not occur that it might be in the interests of the Tories and the Lib Dems to encourage an air of boredom with the election as both their activists and their voters are far more motivated than post-Iraq Labour's? So talk of early elections actually helps them.

Of course if they do call it early then the HPC will be coming closer, so I suppose I want to say bring it on, but I doubt it will come. (Diehard Tory in case your thinking this is a pro-New Labour rant).

[IP Newcomer]

1.  politicalbetting.co.uk is still showing overwhelming odds in favour of an election in the second quarter of the year.  Whatever the chatter is, no one is putting much money on it being anything other than May.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Going back to an old post of mine it seems that the odds being offered have actually halved from 6.4 to 3.2.

[The Masked Tulip]

Both the Liberal and the Tories are on the box today talking as if the election had been called. They are revealing their policies and it is clear that, by the big guns being wheeled out, that there is obviously some concern amongst both parties that a snap election might be about to be called.

Labour got a resounding poll in its favour over the weekend stating that the Tories might lose even more seats... Blair has come through his staying on holiday during the Asian disaster and has managed to heal some of the Brown/Blair rift, albeit perhaps only publicly, so sooner might be the better option to go....

[Cornish Pasty]

How much notice do they have to give, is it around 6 weeks?

[The Masked Tulip]

Well, conincidently of course, the Tories and Liberal unvealed their election strageties this morning. Labour is about to do it in the next hour....

If May is the election date then this is simply far too early as it is proven that the Public get fed up, tune out and turn off after X number of weeks... Methinks this is very good evidence of a rapidly approaching snap election.

[Bluelady]

It's exactly six weeks. They could call one today for Thursday, 3 March.

[Timmy Manson]

I wonder if part of the hurry, asides from the economic arguments is that US special forces have been uncovered marking targets for the invasion of Iran

..http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4180087.stm... in which case Blair will need a ringing endorsement of both his economic & more importantly his war mandates from the British people before commiting us to a second war.

It's only been a few months since Bush had his next term approved and now some pressure may be coming from the US administration to get on with the next phase of the war, so hurry up Tony and get relected....

[The Masked Tulip]

The News channels are openly referring to all these annoucements as 'election' briefings.

There is NO way they, the Parties, would be doing this now if the election was going to be as far away as May.

Maybe Blair's real reason in staying on holiday over Christmas was that it was in fact an election summit/strategy meeting????

[FTBvish]

I've been seriously thinking about what I can do to convince voters away from Labour. It seems to be the default option for people who think "There's no-one better".

Since the last election many more homes in the UK are using the internet. Maybe it can be harnessed in some way?

In my opinion the Tories would actually do a lot better because they seem to be more honest. Just because the party is in a bit of turmoil, doesn't mean they won't be able to run the country more effectively. It's all about spin. How much does the average voter actually know about the competency of Tory cabinet vs Labour??

[Bluelady]

Depends on how old they are and how much they remember of the nightmare that was the 80s and early 90s.

[The Masked Tulip]

I remember the 80s - spent most of it unemployed. New Liebour have let an awful lot of people down but at least people do have jobs now...

OK, you can debate about the pros and cons of people getting themselves into enormous debt but, in the 80s under the Tories, MILLIONS had no chance of a job let alone of living in a spend, spend, spend culture. Only the South East prospered while Wales, Scotland, Northern England suffered terribly. Remember Yosser Hughes - I know, sadly, many a man who ended up like him during the Tories time in power.

I am often amazed, no - that is a lie, I am not amazed - by the selfish greed of people from the South East of England who want the Tories back in.

[firetruck]

Last summer, I heard from a friend that Labour constituencies were being told to get candidates finalized for last September. I was also told this is normal practise at the "Six months and counting" stage of elections.

Those six months have nearly finished, and still no election - but doing this in September, for an election in May? Nine months seems a very long time...

Who knows? We could still see a general election in march - nice and early before the brown stuff really starts hitting the fan with the economy.

[RichM]

I remember the 80s - spent most of it unemployed. New Liebour have let an awful lot of people down but at least people do have jobs now...

OK, you can debate about the pros and cons of people getting themselves into enormous debt but, in the 80s under the Tories, MILLIONS  had no chance of a job let alone of living in a spend, spend, spend culture. Only the South East prospered while Wales, Scotland, Northern England suffered terribly. Remember Yosser Hughes - I know, sadly, many a man who ended up like him during the Tories time in power.

I am often amazed, no - that is a lie, I am not amazed - by the selfish greed of people from the South East of England who want the Tories back in.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

All that Labour have done is inherit a sound economy, then whack up taxes to pay for civil servants, the vast majority of whom aren't "front-line" staff! I agree that the 80s was harsh, and that the Tories should have handled it better, but if we wanted a modern economy much of it had to be re-structured.

We did alright moving from London to Bristol.

[Guest pioneer31]

I remember the 80s - spent most of it unemployed. New Liebour have let an awful lot of people down but at least people do have jobs now...

OK, you can debate about the pros and cons of people getting themselves into enormous debt but, in the 80s under the Tories, MILLIONS  had no chance of a job let alone of living in a spend, spend, spend culture. Only the South East prospered while Wales, Scotland, Northern England suffered terribly. Remember Yosser Hughes - I know, sadly, many a man who ended up like him during the Tories time in power.

I am often amazed, no - that is a lie, I am not amazed - by the selfish greed of people from the South East of England who want the Tories back in.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

but are the REAL employment figures any better?

and remember that those jobs are public sector appointments, many of which are 'jobs for the sake of jobs'. All paid for by council tax hikes of course.

Although pointless jobs are better than no jobs - at least it stops the riots

[Marina]

I am often amazed, no - that is a lie, I am not amazed - by the selfish greed of people from the South East of England who want the Tories back in.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Okay, I am from the South East and I sort of agree - but then I look at what we have now.

All Labour have done is raise taxes and employ more people in the public sector. It is all they have ever done.

I think this country is going to hell on a handcart. Yobbish behaviour abounds, lots of people seem to be constantly angry, unskilled and semi-skilled jobs are very poorly paid, the gap between haves and have-nots widens inexorably, lowest interest rates for 50 years have created a house price and credit boom which is seriously screwing up our society - and Labour have buggered our pensions. The idea that they are actually any good at anything is laughable - and then you look at the Tories!

Surely any idiot must have twigged by now it's all about personalities. The only way an uncharismatic leader gets elected is if you are in the middle of a crisis - hence Thatcher got elected in 1979. She would have been thrown out in 1983 if it wasn't for the Falklands. Then Kinnock - the most unelectable opposition leader ever! How could John Major ever win an election? Answer, put him up against Kinnock. So now we have Blair - ordinary, personable sort of bloke that sounds like he is serious about improving things for everyone. The fact that he and his government are useless is hidden by the fact he looks normal, sounds normal and comes over as sincere.

So what do the Tories do? Look around - even an unknown would have done - for a nice, normal bloke in his mid 40s who looks normal, sounds normal, sounds sincere and has a full head of hair? No, they elect Michael Howard! He might make a great Prime Minister - who knows? You and I won't ever find out because he, like Iain whatever his name was and William Hague before him are simply unelectable.

The country gets what it deserves.

[Gtr London FTB]

I hate the Tories, hate New Liebour. Lib Dems and Greens are loons.

Is it any wonder that voter turnout is so low!

[IP Newcomer]

Going back to an old post of mine it seems that the odds being offered have actually halved from 6.4 to 3.2.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

On the halving the odds thing, to put this into context the last post I had made on this almost a month ago - when the election could be called in February at the earliest. Now it can be called at March at the earliest. As the bet is for the three months then the actual odds have not simply halved they have almost quatered. I still think it's unlikely (the odds for the next three months have also slightly shortened from an already short base). Volume on this has also shot up in the last few weeks.

I still think it unlikely, but not as unlikely as I did before. The smart money is moving in on an early election.

[The Masked Tulip]

We did alright moving from London to Bristol.

Many will look at th above as a typical self-centred view from someone from the South East of England.

I agree about things going to pot BUT things were going to pot under the Tories also. They kept promising on things like Law & Order but nothing was every done....

However, the NHS suffered terribly under them as did Transportation and many other sectors of the Economy.

[Van]

I feel that the election is very close to being called. It could be right after the Iraqi elections. Do you remember in 2001, Labour booked loads of billboard advertising space weeks before Blair planned to call the election, but then had to cancel them (costing them a fortune) because of Foot & Mouth? Now Labour's posters have again reared their ugly head, it must be a sure sign that they are about to call the vote soon. Expect Prescott to be waving his "5 new pledges" card in our faces by the end of Feb.