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Timmy Manson

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About Timmy Manson

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  1. Brown may be predicting a sharp recovery........ but the yield curve is predicting a recession. It will be interesting to see who is right. Incidentally. UK growth since 1997 has been fuelled by 1. MEW and a declining saving rate, 2. Massive public spending increases. No 1 is now ceasing as house prices stagnate, hence a recession in the retail sector. If No 2 is removed the economy will collapse as a recession occurs in the rest of the economy. The private sector which Brown has spent 8 years deystroying is in no shape to take up the economic slack if public sector spending is reigned in. No, public sector spending will not be reigned in, taxes cannot go higher..... and so Brown will have no option but to borrow, expect a surge in UK Gov Gilt issues are Brown tries to spend our way out of trouble. It will fail, just like it did last time Labour wrecked the UK economy. Not too worried as we're leaving the UK in July ( before currency restrictions are imposed ). Back in 2012 if things have improved. To those staying behind, bulls included, good luck, you'll need it
  2. In excess of £100k, and I have no bloody intention of putting any of it anywhere near property. 25% cash and cash equivalents. 25% emerging market equities. 50% developed market equities.
  3. Rigsby that is your view, interestingly it is not a view shared by a contributor to Moneyweek. Last weeks edition contained an article on the future of UK housing. The prediction was that a steadily declining, but significant proportion of the population with be home owners by 2020 ( about 17m ) that these people will have a continued vested interest in restricting the number of houses built in order to create a shortage that will maintain the value of their houses. These people will be strongly in favour of more immigration as the sharp decline in the birth rate means that there are simply not enough young people of UK birth to rent there surplus properties. Conspiracy is exactly what it is. Why the ****** do you think the first objection that homeowners have to new builds in their local area is "the effect it will have on house prices"
  4. I was just taking a look at the % of FTBs in the market, it was in a band between 40-60% all the time from 1979 to 2002 even though the crashes in the early 80's and 90's in the last 3 years it has collapsed to less than 9%. Now either young people have suddenly, overnight, become work shy lazy good for nothings who have nothing like the moral backbone and stamina that our generations had ( ohhh didn't we have it hard with our free university education, milk round jobs, and £50,000 houses).......or something pretty bloody serious in happening out there. The market is disspassionate. I dont' give a crap what your grandad went though in the war or how hard you worked in the 80s. The point is that young people cannot afford a house, they are not having children, this means there will not be enough people of working age to pay taxes to fund out retirement even if they introduce 100% income tax on them.
  5. Yes, and loads of fixed rate deals are coming to an end so people are remortgaging to find the best deal as rates have risen. Very much doubt that this relfects many new buyers entering the market.
  6. He did say a "apart from a small number of towns", when markets crash there are always exceptions, even in the 1920s stock market crash a few stocks actually went up. There are always exceptions. BUT Hosham is not the entire UK market.
  7. I'm afraid to say I think you'll be dissapointed, I think 2006 will by and large be contiuned stale mate with some localised panics, alot of vendors will be taking property back off the market i.e. in denial. It'll be 2008 that I think the crap will really start to hit the fan. Go and take a look at the Moneyweek website, in the archived articles you should be able to find one of the outlook for UK house prices. Shove it under your partners nose
  8. You miss understand. The bank can lend, if it so wishes £100,000 it has not got, there is now no mimimum capital requirement. The banks do not need to have desposits in order to lend. True if you wanted you could take the electronic balance of £100k that the bank had created and say "right I want the cash" and the bank would have to get hold of some 'real' paper money if you wanted the cash in that form........but of course no one ever does as only small transactions are now made in paper money. Electronic money can be created in an instant and circulated around the economy. You must understand that when you take out a £250,000 mortgage the bank has created that amount of money which did not exist before, you will then have to work to create it in order to pay it all back, plus interest. Hence the banks quite literally are in effect liscensed to print money these days. No one noticed, no one cares, because finance and economics is 'boring' to most people. Whereas a soap operas are fascinating and important.
  9. Spot on. Nail on the head. Iv'e spent the past two years saving like buggery.....to buy a house? No, to make sure that when the time comes me and the Mrs are solvent enough to leave before it's tool late. Iv'e even gone to the trouble of taking an internationally recognised finance qualification so that I can find work easily overseas.
  10. Ed Balls is a prat and an arch spinner. He was given a full page in the Investors Chronicle to tell us all that the UK economy is infact in fantastic shape and that Gordon Brown is the best chancellor ever and not to listen to the gloom mongers. The result? I cancelled my sub to the IC and sent a letter to the editor explaining that I need impartial investment advice not pages devoted to political spin. :angry:
  11. Don't mean to be picky, but he's plain wrong. We have around £1 trillion of debt secured on houses, and if the entire housing market we re-mortgaged a debt of £3 trillion could be created. Actual 'assets' in terms of real money invested in housing is probably more like £200-300 billion. He like most people is making the fatal mistake of counting a debt as an asset and hence hugely over estimating the private wealth of the UK population. Remember the money you get from a bank for a mortgage has not been lent to the bank by a saver, it has been created by the bank from nothing.
  12. Land registry stats............ Year % FTB loans 1989 51 1990 52 1991 46 I firmly believe this crash will be far, far worse than the last one. By the way for anyone whose interested in order to get residency in Canada the fast way is to buy a farm, costs about £50k, you then have tax free status for 5 years regardless of what you do for a living....that's right NO TAX for 5 years. .......just incase anybody else is leaving the sinking ship too
  13. We have this city bonus ******** every year. At one time it was true 4-5 years ago when the market was technically cheap I knew traders who were hoovering up flats. Thing is that love them or hate them, city traders generally aren't thick, at least not the ones that get a decent bonus. And they're bonuses will likely being going into gold, oil, gas co, and Japanese equities this year. Property is no longer a good investment....so most will avoid it.
  14. Can't wait for the BBC to get hold of this one.............
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