700 House Btl Empire Who Say House Market Will Not Crash

[OzzMosiz]

I find it really amusing this them and us strategy that has appeared on this thread. So if anyone on this website makes it in anything, we should all gang up and conspire against them. I know houses is an emotive subject, but the wilson's are not the cause of the problem, they are taking advantage of an opportunity.

True, and the renters can take advantage of bringing them down, so that they can afford a house.

[Guest chrisbrighton]

I find it really amusing this them and us strategy that has appeared on this thread. So if anyone on this website makes it in anything, we should all gang up and conspire against them. I know houses is an emotive subject, but the wilson's are not the cause of the problem, they are taking advantage of an opportunity.

And who is to say they are wrong, I might not necessairily agree with them, but there the one's with 700 houses. I always thought there would be a stagnation, but new the olympics was always going to boost certain areas of london. I was wrong, the housing market is alot healthier than I thought, expecially rebounding the way it did from 2005. When people on this site going on about campaigning / distributing leaflets, it is time to call it a day, the fight is over.

So what if the market does not crash, and no one listens to your campaigning. What then? Nothing, life goes on. A new wave of buyers will come in not witnessing or regreting not buying when house prices were so cheap. We all must of heard it from parents / grand parents, I remember way back when, when you could buy a house for 5 grand in London. As absurd as that may seem, so will the house prices you remember will sound absurd when you tell the new generation.

I know I will probably get slated with this post. Do not really care, not really an avid member nowadays. Found much more interesting forums to discuss issues in. And they are not related to houseprices.

I agree with your sentiments. I decided to take a look at this site and have found it an interesting read. It saddens me however that there are so many "bitter and twisted" people about who seem to enjoy attacking other folk who have decided to invest in property.

[dogbox]

Houses, like stocks, all double every 5 years until a crash comes along. Boom & Bust is just a cycle. Stretch the credit too far and it snaps back in your face. Has credit been stretched too far? The proliferation of IO, 3X-7X mortgages, accelerating repossession rates, historically high debt mountain, suggests it has gone far beyond the point of a safe return.

When Warren Buffet read Benjamin Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor” in 1950, he was only 19. He thought then that it was by far the best book about investing ever written and, 55 years later, he hasn’t changed his mind. Benjamin Graham developed his own core principles, one of which was “The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism (which makes investments too expensive) and unjustified pessimism (which makes investments too cheap). The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.” These fundamental investment truths, which we refer to regularly, have overwhelming importance and yet, by the majority of even experienced investors, seem rarely to be recognised. As we have said many times before, investment markets go from being too dear to too cheap and then back to too dear again. Graham’s reference to a pendulum is the perfect analogy. Recognising market tops and successfully selling to the optimists and recognising market bottoms and successfully buying from pessimists is the ultimate investment achievement. Any seriously minded investor, in order to prosper, must try to grasp that principle and use it as his mantra.

I agree with much of Grahams theory however W Buffett (who claims B G was biggest influence on his life after his father) has no time for 'market timers'. Over and over again he has made this assertion.

[Converted Lurker]

I agree with your sentiments. I decided to take a look at this site and have found it an interesting read. It saddens me however that there are so many "bitter and twisted" people about who seem to enjoy attacking other folk who have decided to invest in property.

Chris, I could write far too much in relation to yours and Dave's post, however, I'll attempt to keep it short; firstly most on here are not "bitter and twisted" IMHO, they look at the Wilsons and think "one of those 700 properties could be mine if these guys weren't sucking the 'first time buyer lifeblood' out of the housing market". There are 'Wilsons' all over the UK adopting the same investment stategy - the only comfort will be that (despite them buying up FTB stock) concentrating on new build virtually exclusively and continuing to buy once the clever money has stopped buying/exited new build will eradicate a significant part of their profits.

A director of a propery related co mentioned to me that if the Wilsons put their portfolio up for sale over night it would cause a crash immediately in that local market, that indicates to me just how bizarre the property market has become as it has overshot the moon.

Finally I personally wouldn't begrudge anyone success other than the Wilsons type investor, they are and they don't realise it simply the foot soldiers/cannon fodder for larger banks, a guy I know retired after 5 years of helping create new start mortgage co's backed by secured and securitised lending. He and his like are the smart ones, he hasn't had to hold all that bricks and mortar to make similar amounts for his company, the Wilsons have been used, sadly their greed will have knock on social effects for decades. They're not: Bill Gates, Branson, John Hargreaves (Matalan) who bring; employment, pension wealth, vitality and change to commerce, they are locusts who 'provide' nothing.

There are plenty of ways of 'playing houses' when you know there is money to be made without trampling on each other, you could, for example, buy run down vacant houses in Liverpool, repair them over 4 months to then sell for modest profits to FTBs who buy at 5% under market rate, you can then sleep at night...

[Als]

I find it really amusing this them and us strategy that has appeared on this thread. So if anyone on this website makes it in anything, we should all gang up and conspire against them. I know houses is an emotive subject, but the wilson's are not the cause of the problem, they are taking advantage of an opportunity.

And who is to say they are wrong, I might not necessairily agree with them, but there the one's with 700 houses. I always thought there would be a stagnation, but new the olympics was always going to boost certain areas of london. I was wrong, the housing market is alot healthier than I thought, expecially rebounding the way it did from 2005. When people on this site going on about campaigning / distributing leaflets, it is time to call it a day, the fight is over.

So what if the market does not crash, and no one listens to your campaigning. What then? Nothing, life goes on. A new wave of buyers will come in not witnessing or regreting not buying when house prices were so cheap. We all must of heard it from parents / grand parents, I remember way back when, when you could buy a house for 5 grand in London. As absurd as that may seem, so will the house prices you remember will sound absurd when you tell the new generation.

I know I will probably get slated with this post. Do not really care, not really an avid member nowadays. Found much more interesting forums to discuss issues in. And they are not related to houseprices.

'Us and them' is an undeniable reality now though Dave. By saying that house prices will keep going up they set themselves up to be targeted. They wish to see prices increase...fair enough, they will profit. But their profit is at my expense because I see prices running away from me. If you want to profit, you should expect opposition. To imagine that it will go away is just naieve.

[bloke_down_the_pub]

I wonder how many different lenders the Wilsons use? I reckon a large shortfall in mortgage payment will get the lenders very twitchy given the size of the loans.

Ive always thought there was a limit on the amount of mortages you could take out? or a limit on the amount of liability you could achieve with banks?

Also, what is MEW? (sorry new to board)

[Leonard Hatred]

I agree with your sentiments. I decided to take a look at this site and have found it an interesting read. It saddens me however that there are so many "bitter and twisted" people about who seem to enjoy attacking other folk who have decided to invest in property.

Hmmm... If I ever become a millionaire, I think I will invest in water - buying it up and then selling it back to people for 3 times what I paid

[eurows]

I agree with your sentiments. I decided to take a look at this site and have found it an interesting read. It saddens me however that there are so many "bitter and twisted" people about who seem to enjoy attacking other folk who have decided to invest in property.

So if you put your money into property your a 'Property investor' if you condemn it (because this guy is buying up ftb homes, inflating the local price so the ftb have to rent from him rather than buy) your 'bitter and twisted' :angry:

[Bungalow Builder]

Ive always thought there was a limit on the amount of mortages you could take out? or a limit on the amount of liability you could achieve with banks?

Also, what is MEW? (sorry new to board)

I thought there was a limit too - usually 10 properties

MEW = Mortgage Equity Withdrawal - ie when you take a new (2nd) mortgage against the increased value of a property - eg buy flat for 50k in 1996 - increase mortgage by 30k in 2000, buy 2nd place 2000 for 100k using 30k as deposit

Edited December 19, 2006 by Bungalow Builder

[Jimmy James]

I don't think they're as stupid as they first appear.

My guess is that they realise the loss of the Eurostar is a major blow to their business model, so they are hyping the market whilst off loading their portfolio to the gullible through their "consultancy business".

The last set up is to try and avoid the shock to the Ashford market that selling up their portfolio in a normal manner would create. They have about 10 months (up to 18 if really optimistic) try and pull it off.

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

Ive always thought there was a limit on the amount of mortages you could take out? or a limit on the amount of liability you could achieve with banks?

Also, what is MEW? (sorry new to board)

it's Mortgage Equity Withdrawal......it's basically the fake money you have made in your property unless your downsizing or moving to a cheaper country

oh & welcome

Edited December 19, 2006 by grumpy-old-man

[dave]

The reason why I find this thread amusing is the fact that Wilson's invested in houses and gained, bigtime. I remember way back when we our family bought a house in Normanton (which is a crap part of Derby), which just had a grant job done. New roof and what looked like a comprehensive damp proof course. The house was 25k. We bought by remortgaging our family house. We bought the property without doing a survey, thinking that the council would have done a proper job with everything. An old guy lived in the property and the living room had a big stain in the middle of the carpet. Found that the council did not do a comprehensive damp proof course at all. Had Lead water pipes running through the course of the house. The kitchen floor and living room had the most amount of damp I had ever seen. Kitchen needed extended as it was so small. Suddenly what looked to be an OK purchase, looked a very bad investment indeed. I remember my brother calling it the "white elephant".

The above purchase was not really helped by the fact we bought a 3 bed semi which we had double glazed, which cost us 35k at the back of the last boom. By the time mid nineties hit, the house was worth alot less. The whole situation was not helped as tennents basically took the piss with the rent. We had one family renting on our street that basically moved 3 times from 3 different landlords and we were the last. They all took the piss. Landlords were not evil then, they have suddenly morphed into them recently.

[Elvis-Has-Sold-The-Building]

Sure the Wilsons did fine at first, but like many a gambler they didn't know when to stop.

Now they are looking to offload quietly via their new property bond business selling bonds to "virgin buy-to-let investors".

If the Wilsons see the mugs they sell the bonds to as fair game then why shouldn't tenants see the Wilsons as fair game too? It wouldn't be that hard to leaflet the new-build estates around Park Farm particularly two or three-bed terraces to find the Wilson's tenants.

Number of properties on www.houseprices.co.uk for Ashford, Kent:

2006 2310

2005 2800

2004 3371

2003 2861

Approximately number of houses owned by Wilsons each year, from various articles:

2006 700

2005 500

2003 465

2002 and before 100

So that's about 600 houses out of 11342 brought by the Wilsons 2003-2006. Or about 5.3% of the properties sold in Ashford, Kent 2003-2006.

PS. If they were to dump all 700 properties on a market that typically shifts 2800 properties a year the result would be spectacular.

[SeenItAllBefore]

I wonder if people like the Wilsons really believe they’ve discovered a perpetual money making machine or deep down they know it’s just a massive pyramid scheme. Every year they must have sunk deeper and deeper into debt to pay higher and higher prices for the same thing whilst watching their yields steadily declining. What the hell sort of business model is that?

Truth is, people like them are the bubble.

[crashmonitor]

I wonder if people like the Wilsons really believe they’ve discovered a perpetual money making machine or deep down they know it’s just a massive pyramid scheme. Every year they must have sunk deeper and deeper into debt to pay higher and higher prices for the same thing whilst watching their yields steadily declining. What the hell sort of business model is that?

Truth is, people like them are the bubble.

I think they honestly believe that house prices will double every seven years(their claim) because they have over the last 35 years.1971 6K 1978 12K 1985 24K 1992 48K 1999 96K and 2006 192K.The trouble is during the first two decades inflation was doubling everysix and a half years so houses were actually falling until the late eighties boom and the inflationary environment is unlikely to be repeated on that scale again.

A case of Maths teachers looking at the pure arithmetic and projecting it straight onto future growth.

[Crashman Begins]

Thanks to Livininabox on the following thread:

My Big Fat Property Fortune, ITV1, Tues April 17th 8pm

THREAD:

for noticing who collected the petitions to keep Ashford International station open:

Former teacher[b/] Mrs Edith Robson from Kent

Although the propertys are owned by former teacher Judith Robson

Bit of Coincidence ....

- Could be a mistake with the name by the kent news

- Perhaps she is trying to hide identity

- Could be a relative.

Link to petition collected by former teacher EDITH ROBSON from kent

Edited April 18, 2007 by Crashman Begins

[simon99]

The sad thing is the government seem to encourage this sort of thing. People hoarding houses in a country with a chronic housing shortage shouldnt be allowed.

[lets get it right]

I would think that they probably have so much equity now that they'll be loaded, even if we do have a big crash.

You might hate them, but don't you wish you'd done the same at the same time? I certainly do.

I would have stopped long before 100 houses though - that is plenty to guarantee anybody a decent living standard. Beyond this, it's just buying for buying's sake, i.e. greed/addiction.

And this is just simplistic idiotic nonsense:

But Fergus Wilson predicts that prices will double every seven years and says the typical property he owns - a £200,000 two- to three-bed starter home - will cost £400,000 by 2013, £800,000 by 2020 and £1.6m by 2027.

Yeah right. So you know how to extrapolate then.

All that proves to me is what I have long believed - teachers are idiots. Why doesn't someone ask him to justify the proposition? Just because looking back over the last 40 years houses have doubled every 7 years - why doesn't someone ask him to explain how this can continue. Massive inflation used to cause HPI, 50 year low interest rate lows caused it recently. What can possibly happen (given the background of a global economy) to make them double over the next 7 years.

The man clearly has an IQ of about 60.

[optimist]

Thanks to Livininabox on the following thread:

My Big Fat Property Fortune, ITV1, Tues April 17th 8pm

THREAD:

for noticing who collected the petitions to keep Ashford International station open:

Former teacher[b/] Mrs Edith Robson from Kent

Although the propertys are owned by former teacher Judith Robson

Bit of Coincidence ....

- Could be a mistake with the name by the kent news

- Perhaps she is trying to hide identity

- Could be a relative.

Link to petition collected by former teacher EDITH ROBSON from kent

Well done for spotting that!!

It is one hell of a coincidence, isn't it?! It has to be her who is wetting her pants at the propect of her BTL empire going t*ts up as and when the Eurostar stops its services from Ashford. And the 2000 signatures she hs collected must be forged from those of her tenants in her 700 properties on the tenancy agreements!

[LargelyIgnorant]

The sad thing is the government seem to encourage this sort of thing. People hoarding houses in a country with a chronic housing shortage shouldnt be allowed.

At this stage, it should be encouraged. If all the property investors had stopped a few years ago, they'd be sittting pretty with loads of equity and would be able to ride out a crash. Instead they have geared up and up, MEWing to buy more and more property - destroying their equity percentage, whilst increasing their risk in the process.

These mafs teachers are a perfect expample. They have geared their entire portfolio for continued capital appreciation. When capital appreciation stops, or goes into decline, they will not be able to serve their massive debts because they didn't adhere to the simple mafermatics formula of 'rental income > mortgage'.

The Eurotunnel move from Ashford to Ebbsfleet will bankrupt them, making the 700 homes they have hoarded available to 700 local families they have speculated out of the market. This is excellent news for the local community and the 700 families that will end up owning their own homes. Bad news for two speculators who didn't do the mafs - who cares?

The neither's predicted stagnationary everlasting plateau should hopefully ensure something like the Ebsfleet Effect happens across the country - when HPI stops, BTL is a losing proposition because people forgot about yield.

[dirge]

700 houses dumped straight onto the market will probly reduce prices quite a bit, great for locals wanting to buy, not so great for other people wanting to sell at the same time as these idiots unloading.

[Bug16]

I have to chuckle at the comments saying that we should all be in some sort of admiring awe for people like this couple because of their keen business sense.

Us bears aren't sat here stamping our feet griping how unfair it is to see people like them prosper. Far from it. It's like watching a car crash in slow motion and for some reason none of us want to be in the car.

What I'd like to see is how many property gurus like these clowns were swaggering around in the papers and on TV in the 80's and how many of them survived the 90's.

[It is different this time]

700 House Btl Empire Who Say House Market Will Not Crash

Would you not wanna deny if you were sitting on a time bomb as well?

[Guest pioneer31]

I've no problem with people making a comfortable living. This is unbelievable, they take avarice and greed to a whole new planet. What possible reason can ANYONE have for owning 700 properties?

I suppose they'd go to Africa on their well fed behinds and grab all the food too....

[Guest pioneer31]

Funny how black marketeering was illegal but doing the same with houses (ramping up the price of a limited resource) is not.