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Everything posted by SeenItAllBefore

  1. As I couldn’t afford to live anywhere else I spent the late 80s to mid-90s in Hackney, Tower Hamlets and Walthamstow. I remember sitting outside my local pub in Hackney with a mate who was visiting, he sat there surveying the view and said “if they ever give London an enema, this is where they’ll stick the pipe”. In the late 80s there were a lot of up and coming actors and Comedy Store types living around there. You’d see a quiz team made up of “Whose Line Is It Anyway” participants in my local pub and The Bill cast members in the off-licence. I remember shaking my head reading an interview in
  2. If this data relates to 25 year loans taken out in the mid-80s it doesn't tell you much about what's going to happen when the sort of mega loans that have been taken out in the last 10-15 years reach the same stage.
  3. Two reasons for the UKIP surge: (1) The chaotic state of the Eurozone means they’ve comprehensively won that debate. The rest of the political establishment just looks idiotic trying to defend it these days. (2) Many people are sick and tired of untrammelled mass immigration. And I mean really fed up with it and want something drastic done to shut it down.
  4. I was surprised Moody's report attracted so little attention when it was published last year, I thought its findings were explosive. Now the new FCA has chosen to highlight the I/O mortgage issue as its first overt public act. I wonder why? Maybe it's an attempt to point out the scale of the lunacy that went on under Ed Balls' idiotic tripartite regulatory regime and the now defunct FSA. One thing Moody's mentioned was that by 2007 75% of all lending was I/O which explains why prices went up so stupidly far, somebody buying with an I/O mortgage can afford to pay roughly 1/3 more than someone
  5. Moody's research suggested the problem was a lot worse than that
  6. I had a brief contract in a civil service department a few years ago, in the team of about 10 people I worked with there were 4 people who had joined as teenagers in the 70s who were coming up to retirement after getting their 40 years in. They were looking at retiring in their mid to late 50s on pensions of half their final salaries with a 1.5 times final salary lump sum thrown in for good measure. As far as I recall they were earning around the £30,000 mark at their grades so God knows how much that sort of pension deal would cost in the private sector, more than £1/2 million I would guess.
  7. Rents might seem high now but I’m pretty certain they were a lot higher in the past. I’ve rented in Outer London, the South-East and the Midlands for 25 odd years but when I check current rents for places I’ve lived in previously they always appear to have fallen in real terms. For instance I paid £900 a month for a flat in Twickenham in 1996 and I know someone who now lives in the same block and is paying £1200. Only a 1/3 rise in 17 years, and that’s in a very desirable area, easily commutable to the high paying areas of London. The RPIX compounds to more than that over that period. That’s
  8. I agree with you about the Heath comparison but I think the coalition’s main problem is that it just doesn’t have a mandate to do anything about the mess 13 years of New Labour created. I thought this snippet of information from Moneyweek was interesting: From what I remember the dire state of the public finances were made plain enough both during the 2010 election campaign and afterwards when the coalition was laying out its plans but, if this poll is to be believed, half the electorate have chosen to believe the completely specious “unnecessary, idealogically driven Tory cuts” message pus
  9. This story was around in November but didn’t attract much attention, can’t think why! I think this is because the City boys and their bonuses distorted prices in the South so comprehensively that those in the professional classes who wanted to play in the same property sand-pit had no option but to go the IO route. When the base rate got pushed up to 5.75% in the summer of 2007 I remember a colleague of mine talking about some friends of his, a GP and her husband in their early 30s, who were struggling with a £600,000 IO mortgage. So it wouldn’t surprise me if these big IO loans are concent
  10. I’m surprised this particular revelation hasn’t attracted more attention. I knew that I/O borrowing had grown to a point where it was roughly half the market by 2007 but the fact that more than half of ALL the outstanding loans in the South are I/O strikes me as extraordinary. What sort of regulatory regime allowed that to happen? It’s insane. It says something that this BBC journalist spends the whole article lamenting the current and future lack of available I/O loans, completely missing the real implication of this story. I know there are some “sophisticated” investors out there with irreg
  11. I really wonder what sort of experience of life you would have had to make a statement like this. The idea that, broadly speaking, all men are born equal is just plain wrong, anyone who went to a comprehensive school should have seen that. It’s just a conceit maintained by Labour politicians pandering to their core vote. How many votes would they get telling the bottom of the pile that they are there mainly because they are thick and, or, lazy? Much better to send the message that it’s all a middle class conspiracy to keep them down and absolve them of blame.
  12. I can see the point they are trying to make about our house building rates vs population growth though. We were building at an annual rate of 150,000 new homes plus for many years before the financial crisis. When you add all the extensions built on existing properties into the equation we must have added accommodation for a fair few million people in the last 20 years. I’d always assumed this was why we’d managed to absorb the biggest mass migration in our history without any discernible increase in rental prices.
  13. But it’s astonishing how many lefties do try and defend Brown, Balls & Co. If you listen to them it was all the fault of Tories and their banker friends. The part that irresponsible, overspending governments and the greedy buy now pay later public played in the insanity doesn’t come into it at all apparently. Then we get the insistence that “it would have been worse under the Tories”. I’d like to know how. Yes we’d probably have had the same problems in the financial system and the same rampant crony capitalism but there is no way on past behaviour that they’d have ramped up public sector
  14. Michael Howard did in his 2004 Budget reply speech.
  15. Agree with you about the Poles by the way but I think you’ll find that the British Empire was a net exporter of capital for most of its existence and, by dint of our tiny population compared to that of India for instance, there was no way we could have imposed British rule and subjugated people militarily in the way you suggest. We just didn't have the manpower.
  16. They also didn’t notice how times had changed to a much lower inflation/interest rate environment and advised their kids to do the same thing they’d done i.e. load up on as much mortgage debt as possible because “things would get easier after a few years”. As to the OP, I heard a story last week but concerning a manager in the public sector on his way out of a job he’d been in for years. He has a couple of young kids, their life-style is modest, ordinary car, camping holidays in Wales every summer etc. As a family they only have one outrageously expensive indulgence, an average family house
  17. It sounds like the penny is starting to drop at the FSA. Without the widespread availability of IO mortgages there is no chance of house prices being sustainable at current levels. All those downsizers currently failing to offload £1/2 million plus houses onto their unsuspecting juniors will still be de-cluttering etc in 10 years time if the banks carry on like this. According to the FSA 33% of all loans taken out in 2007 were IO, the vast majority without a repayment vehicle. Even then, when mortgage rates were around 6%, those just renting the money off the bank with no means of actually pa
  18. Pre-credit crunch there seemed to be a lot of people around me running up major short term debts to fund their consumer habits then rolling these debts into their mortgages every 2-3 years when they re-financed. As that just isn’t possible for most people these days I was wondering when, and where, this loss of spending power would make itself felt. In the early 90s the consumer bust was very visible no matter where you lived with abandoned shops, business premises, kitchen and bathroom showrooms etc all over the place. To be honest I don’t see any evidence of this around me at the moment, b
  19. I was lucky enough to be out of the Country for the first 5 years of Blair's reign so maybe someone can enlighten me. Did the leftie rent-a-mob riot when New Labour first introduced these charges for tertiary education?
  20. The question I can't answer is "who are all these downsizing baby-boomers going to sell their £1/2 million plus houses to?"
  21. An excerpt from a recent email I got from Moneyweek If the banks precipitate another crisis in the the medium term my guess is that there would be large scale civil unrest, both here and in the US.
  22. The Corporation of London is not exactly Liverpool City Council though is it? I thought it was pretty much an (ultra) right-winger's ideal of what the state should be? On the wider issue of state spending, tax freedom day is 30th May this year. We spend 25 minutes in every hour working for the state and, the way things are looking, it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. Perhaps all those bleating about getting rich people and businesses to cough up even more tax should spend a bit more time thinking about how the state sector can become more efficient and deliver better value f
  23. As far as I understand it the Tories introduced targeting to try to focus public servants on the job they were supposed to be doing e.g. treating patients, educating students etc rather than what they were actually doing which was running their institutions largely for their own benefit. As I was educated in the comprehensive system in the late 70s and early 80s looking back I can see what the Tories were concerned about - 90% of my teachers couldn’t have cared less whether we learned anything or not. Back then teaching seemed to have become a refuge profession for those that didn’t want the p
  24. Cap Gemini actually - french software house.
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