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House Price Crash Forum

Jimmy James

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About Jimmy James

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    HPC Poster
  1. There are only 68 signatories... come on people! We can do better than this!
  2. I'm not too sure Frank's right here - Blair has almost no levers to control the economy, the great achievement of the Granita lunch for Brown. Unless of course Blair comes out with a public statement saying house prices are going to crash - which i reckon is unlikely.
  3. I don't think they're as stupid as they first appear. My guess is that they realise the loss of the Eurostar is a major blow to their business model, so they are hyping the market whilst off loading their portfolio to the gullible through their "consultancy business". The last set up is to try and avoid the shock to the Ashford market that selling up their portfolio in a normal manner would create. They have about 10 months (up to 18 if really optimistic) try and pull it off.
  4. I'm a potential FTB - although 'potential' seems very hypothetical indeed at the moment. Not surprised STRs post more frequently, as their position means they are exposed to greater risk and it is more of a conscious choice - hence a greater need for analysis and greater levels of self doubt. As an FTB I feel much more that it is in the hands of the gods - and thus post less.
  5. We're turning Japanese... I am very depressed. I don't mind others losing their shirts through foolish financial behaviour - but the scale now looks like it will mean the rest of us get shafted too. And all government housing policy is designed to pump more liquidity into the system. I think i'm just going to migrat to Allotments4all discussion boards and just talk about vegetable cultivation, otherwise i'm going to need medication fairly soon.
  6. Respected economics writer saying things are more complicated than the HPC view - comment? ---------- Pay no attention to house price forecasts By John Kay Published: November 7 2006 02:00 | Last updated: November 7 2006 02:00 Like those who tell the time from a stopped clock, the people who predict that British house prices will tumble will be right one day. But in the meantime, the rise continues and London estate agents are salivating at the prospect of City bonuses in January. Last week, the principal mortgage lenders announced that they would help new buyers by offering loans of five
  7. Live in South London - 399 properties up for rent through rightmove within a mile. Sure plenty more doing rentals without an official agent
  8. Guardian Debate Living on borrowed time Forty-year mortgages mean people will still be paying off loans out of their pensions. But that is the harsh logic of the housing market. Rupert Jones Confirmation has come this week that the traditional mortgage as we knew it has been consigned to the history books. Go back just a few years and we were all taking out home loans lasting for, at most, 25 years, and borrowing perhaps a maximum of three times our income. Oh, and we'd take out one of those endowment policy things to pay off the loan and provide us with a nice cash lump sum, too. Endowme
  9. Laurejon: but immigrants causing pressure on housing services is not the same as immigrants causing high house prices. Well, much to my surprise, I partly agree with you here LJ - the quality of life is deteriorating in London, and part of that is to do with levels of immigration. However I think it's best to come at it from a more rounded way - immigration is clearly a problem, but distributional and social justice issues are also equally important, if not more so. It's a faulty intellect who tries to hang it all on the immigrant hook. And treat the 'immigrants cause house prices to incr
  10. Have you bothered to read this thread? It is about clarifying what 'demand' is - and why a simple head count is not a very good way of understanding current levels of 'demand'. The primary reason why Londoners retiring to Norfolk effects prices is because they have a great deal of money - i.e. their contribution to 'effective demand' is very high. You make a good point in highlighting that in a case where one group with more money moves into an area with a group that has less money this of course makes the impact on demand much greater. Of course this isn't the case with the movement of
  11. The first paragraph could be said to be a fair argument - although it doesn't have much to do with house prices, more a 'immigrants are a tool to help supress wages for the working man' thesis. The second paragraph is fairly tendentious though. The links you are trying to make are weak at best. House prices are much better seen in the context of monetory policy and the surrounding framework of government policy on investment, btls, tax incentives etc.. Immigration isn't the main issue. And what is 'high density immigration' - coming here 50 to a mini metro?
  12. Yes the rental sector is a contributing to demand. But think about it in a little more detail. Effective demand in the rental sector is based on the amount people can borrow - tempered by the yield they must earn from rent. In your example the main contributor to effective demand to be able to buy the house is the business man (who borrows the money, pays the mortgage whilst earning rent), whilst the immigrant (because of their low wages and their inability to borrow) only contributes 10% of this effective demand through rent. The business man benefits from access to better (although ris
  13. Brainclamp - you have a very unitarian way of constructing an argument. Is the clamp affecting you're brain's ability to see more than one cause to a problem (and then roll everything else into in a very jumbled way)? In fact your response is such an incoherent mush it's hard to know where to begin. My numbers are not meant to be serious - but even if you asume that we have 10 new immigrants to the original 59 residents the observation I make remains valid. The 'causes of low interest rates' are multiple and varied. In the current UK context interest rates are used primarily as a mechanism
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