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Jimmy James

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Everything posted by Jimmy James

  1. There are only 68 signatories... come on people! We can do better than this!
  2. I'm not too sure Frank's right here - Blair has almost no levers to control the economy, the great achievement of the Granita lunch for Brown. Unless of course Blair comes out with a public statement saying house prices are going to crash - which i reckon is unlikely.
  3. I don't think they're as stupid as they first appear. My guess is that they realise the loss of the Eurostar is a major blow to their business model, so they are hyping the market whilst off loading their portfolio to the gullible through their "consultancy business". The last set up is to try and avoid the shock to the Ashford market that selling up their portfolio in a normal manner would create. They have about 10 months (up to 18 if really optimistic) try and pull it off.
  4. I'm a potential FTB - although 'potential' seems very hypothetical indeed at the moment. Not surprised STRs post more frequently, as their position means they are exposed to greater risk and it is more of a conscious choice - hence a greater need for analysis and greater levels of self doubt. As an FTB I feel much more that it is in the hands of the gods - and thus post less.
  5. We're turning Japanese... I am very depressed. I don't mind others losing their shirts through foolish financial behaviour - but the scale now looks like it will mean the rest of us get shafted too. And all government housing policy is designed to pump more liquidity into the system. I think i'm just going to migrat to Allotments4all discussion boards and just talk about vegetable cultivation, otherwise i'm going to need medication fairly soon.
  6. Respected economics writer saying things are more complicated than the HPC view - comment? ---------- Pay no attention to house price forecasts By John Kay Published: November 7 2006 02:00 | Last updated: November 7 2006 02:00 Like those who tell the time from a stopped clock, the people who predict that British house prices will tumble will be right one day. But in the meantime, the rise continues and London estate agents are salivating at the prospect of City bonuses in January. Last week, the principal mortgage lenders announced that they would help new buyers by offering loans of five
  7. Live in South London - 399 properties up for rent through rightmove within a mile. Sure plenty more doing rentals without an official agent
  8. Guardian Debate Living on borrowed time Forty-year mortgages mean people will still be paying off loans out of their pensions. But that is the harsh logic of the housing market. Rupert Jones Confirmation has come this week that the traditional mortgage as we knew it has been consigned to the history books. Go back just a few years and we were all taking out home loans lasting for, at most, 25 years, and borrowing perhaps a maximum of three times our income. Oh, and we'd take out one of those endowment policy things to pay off the loan and provide us with a nice cash lump sum, too. Endowme
  9. Laurejon: but immigrants causing pressure on housing services is not the same as immigrants causing high house prices. Well, much to my surprise, I partly agree with you here LJ - the quality of life is deteriorating in London, and part of that is to do with levels of immigration. However I think it's best to come at it from a more rounded way - immigration is clearly a problem, but distributional and social justice issues are also equally important, if not more so. It's a faulty intellect who tries to hang it all on the immigrant hook. And treat the 'immigrants cause house prices to incr
  10. Have you bothered to read this thread? It is about clarifying what 'demand' is - and why a simple head count is not a very good way of understanding current levels of 'demand'. The primary reason why Londoners retiring to Norfolk effects prices is because they have a great deal of money - i.e. their contribution to 'effective demand' is very high. You make a good point in highlighting that in a case where one group with more money moves into an area with a group that has less money this of course makes the impact on demand much greater. Of course this isn't the case with the movement of
  11. The first paragraph could be said to be a fair argument - although it doesn't have much to do with house prices, more a 'immigrants are a tool to help supress wages for the working man' thesis. The second paragraph is fairly tendentious though. The links you are trying to make are weak at best. House prices are much better seen in the context of monetory policy and the surrounding framework of government policy on investment, btls, tax incentives etc.. Immigration isn't the main issue. And what is 'high density immigration' - coming here 50 to a mini metro?
  12. Yes the rental sector is a contributing to demand. But think about it in a little more detail. Effective demand in the rental sector is based on the amount people can borrow - tempered by the yield they must earn from rent. In your example the main contributor to effective demand to be able to buy the house is the business man (who borrows the money, pays the mortgage whilst earning rent), whilst the immigrant (because of their low wages and their inability to borrow) only contributes 10% of this effective demand through rent. The business man benefits from access to better (although ris
  13. Brainclamp - you have a very unitarian way of constructing an argument. Is the clamp affecting you're brain's ability to see more than one cause to a problem (and then roll everything else into in a very jumbled way)? In fact your response is such an incoherent mush it's hard to know where to begin. My numbers are not meant to be serious - but even if you asume that we have 10 new immigrants to the original 59 residents the observation I make remains valid. The 'causes of low interest rates' are multiple and varied. In the current UK context interest rates are used primarily as a mechanism
  14. Imagine a country - let's call it Great Bittern. This country has 59 people living in it. One immigrant from Ethnonistan decides to move to Great Bittern - making the population 60. The basic demand for houses has thus increased from 59 to 60. However houses are bought with something called money, and this money has to be borrowed from the local bank called Yabbey National. Yabby National will lend these people 3.5 worth of the Great Bittern unit of money. Effective demand is thus 60 x 3.5 - i.e. 210. The immigrant contributes 3.5 to this effective demand, the rest of the population
  15. Brainclamp, Laurejon - shall we do this in numbers? Imagine a country - let's call it Great Bittern. This country has 59 people living in it. One immigrant from Ethnonistan decides to move to Great Bittern - making the population 60. The basic demand for houses has thus increased from 59 to 60. However houses are bought with something called money, and this money has to be borrowed from the local bank called Yabbey National. Yabby National will lend these people 3.5 worth of the Great Bittern unit of money. Effective demand is thus 60 x 3.5 - i.e. 210. The immigrant contributes 3.5
  16. Don't worry I can see that increasing demand without a corresponding increase in supply can lead to increasing prices However increasing liquidity is of greater importance in increasing effective demand than immigration is. Keynes concluded that the economy is driven by demand - effective demand - not by supply. Effective Demand: people must have the money to buy what they need/desire for their demand intentions to be economically effective. Effective Demand = the desire to buy something + the ability to buy it In the context of the housing market, 'the ability to buy' is all important
  17. Oh dear Well frankly our resident bovvah boys if you think the conservatives (the party of capital and middle england) are going to do anything about it then you're sadly mistaken. Neither are they going to do much about appeasing your zenophobia either by the sound of it.
  18. And more: Irresponsible lending fuelling housing market - Cable 1 November 2006 Responding to the announcement that Abbey will now be prepared to lend five times either single or joint salary for mortgages, Liberal Democrat Shadow Chancellor, Vince Cable MP said: "This announcement is very alarming. The risk is that more and more people will become overstretched. "With interest rates, unemployment, and council tax all rising it is likely that these irresponsible lending practices will lead to financial disaster for many people. "While the banks may claim they are trying to help first
  19. Following his comments on Abbey yesterday, "“The risk is that more and more people will become overstretched. With interest rates, unemployment and council tax all rising it is likely that these irresponsible lending practices will lead to financial disaster for many people.” See: http://www.vincentcable.org.uk/pages/Campa...chancellor.html
  20. Isn't an important distinction that the £3 billion out is in repayments, whilst the extra 8.6% in is broadly channelled through new lending? The first is the balance of hard cash of debt servicing, the second is just adding to the size of the debt (which is only important in real world terms in the portion of it that is debt servicing) Is M4 really only channeled into the economy via government borrowing?
  21. Hi Duncan Well you're wise to keep an open mind I find your first reason for a crash not happening ('Bank Of England Govern Interest Rates') doubtful though. Frankly, it was much more likely for the government to bend over backwards to take steps to avoid a crash in property prices than a central bank. The Bank of England has a remit of targetting inflation and a gut reaction of price stability and calming the markets. There is no reason why this should consitently overlap with the need to 'stop a housing crash happening'. Granted, wider economic stability is an important factor in the
  22. http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/tim_fo...ld_tragedy.html "The reality of this shocking state of affairs is exposed in the case history of property developer Hugo Evans and his wife Carol, who have chosen to send all three of their children to a school where the fees are about £20,000 pa. "The increase in fees means that the annual summer holiday is now a week in Devon rather than two weeks in Greece, no skiing at half-term or Christmas, and a quiet social life. It is a white wine at the Seven Tuns rather than dinner at the trattoria." No skiing at half-term or Christmas? Jesus, somebody
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