OzzMosiz Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 (edited) you obviously can't afford a house then, or you want one thats too big for what you can afford with your income. that's your income's problem, not the fault of the house price! my income is more than the national average by 5 digits. Doesnt mean it will be in 5 years time though, with every Tom Dick and Harry being allowed into the country to undercut workers. Edited August 18, 2006 by OzzMosiz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim up north Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 Forget the doomsayers! I bought just over a year ago I have no regrets. yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 I think what has got to me is that EVERYTHING has gone quite, debt articles, Gordon Brown, it is jsuts a feeling, nothing is happening, does anyone know what i am on about. Yup. Its that dreadful quiet before the storm time. Gordon has gone to ground to work out what he is going to tell Parliament about the silly CPI data, unemployment and our sinking exports. IN the meantime, I would bask in the Land Registry data which is not bad going for East Anglia. Another Q could see another 16% down and then the winter begins which is usually the best time for a crash to begin because of the higher levels of seasonal depression: Cambridge £385,496 Q: -16.6% YoY: 1.9% 49 You should buy now, before you miss out. Forget the doomsayers! I bought just over a year ago, it is possible to find bargains that you want to live in, its your own roof over your head, treat it like that and you wont go far wrong. I have no regrets. You didn't buy in East Anglia did you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cuckoo Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 , with every Tom Dick and Harry being allowed into the country to undercut workers. i employ a polish cleaner in my flat at £8 an hour ; i don't think that's bad, nor encouraging the import of foreign "slaves" to work their fingers to the bone for an evil super rich elite (i'm hardly that) whilst the rest of the "propa Bri'ish" eat dirt and are forced to , err, "leave the feckin country its got so bad"....to become..... immigrants in other countries. god some of you guys really have no idea do you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim up north Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 i employ a polish cleaner in my flat at £8 an hour ; i don't think that's bad, nor encouraging the import of foreign "slaves" to work their fingers to the bone for an evil super rich elite (i'm hardly that) whilst the rest of the "propa Bri'ish" eat dirt and are forced to , err, "leave the feckin country its got so bad"....to become..... immigrants in other countries. god some of you guys really have no idea do you? When you get repossessed, please pass my details on to your cleaner. I should be buying about that time and should save enough on the price to employ house staff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cuckoo Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 When you get repossessed, please pass my details on to your cleaner. I should be buying about that time and should save enough on the price to employ house staff. you'll be waiting forever, pal! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 i live in one of the most expensive towns outside the South eAst....one of those places where you get south east house prices with northern incomes and ever since 2001 when prices reached 2.5 times their 1998 level i have had no idea how people afford to buy . yet prices have risen another 50% since 2001!......Ave income in town about £21k and ave HP about £225k... Self-cert morgages are the only explanation......With a 15% deposit you can borrow as much as you like..... A couple each earning £20k could borrow about £260k (6.5 times joint income)with a £45k deposit....and buy a £300k house....The payments on an interest-only long term fix at 6% apr would come to about £300 a week.... equivalent to about 50% of the couple's net income...... No-one previously in this country has spent half their take home income on an interest-only mortgage but my point is that it's affordable.........even if not an ideal situation to be in............................................................. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 I have been driving around to the west and north of Cambridge today, i had several jobs to price up. Now every ounce of commonsence in my body tells me that this Country is and has been on a debt fuelled spending spree, the like of which is just impossible to sustain. Yet today all i see is sold signs, WHAT THE F***. Two years ago i was certain that i was doing the right thing by staying out of this huge con, today for the first time i am 50/50, am i along with most of the site missing something. In theory my gut instinct and prediction for the property market i made from two years ago should be more sound today, but it does not feel that way. I am starting to loose the faith(temporary hopefully), i put it down to a moment of weakness, deep inside me there is this little voice that makes me hang on. I swear that people must be on the brink of being crushed by heavy debt, but you see little sign of it on the street, how is it holding up. You have received loads of plausible reasons - house sales falling through (wow that's never happened before) and even estate agents putting boards up outside their own homes. Simple, unpalatable fact is - houses have been selling like hot cakes for the first half of this year, prices have gone up a bit and lots of houses have sold. 2006 looks to be a record year for the number of residential property transactions. Have a look at this table - it shows clearly the 'crash' happened last quarter of 2004 and first two quarters of 2005. Last two quarters of 2005 showed some recovery. Watch and wait for that to get updated with 2006 figures. They will be amongst the highest judging by the number of mortgage approvals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cuckoo Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 the 'crash' happened last quarter of 2004 that's why i bought then and got a great deal. pity others on this board didn't do the same! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy James Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 Sam, don't worry too much. These feelings are natural when we watch the property market so closely and have invested a lot of emotional energy in hoping that prices fall. I had a depressing walk around my area of London today - not just seeing a few sold signs, but also pondering what kind of society we are becoming and whether I'm entirely comfortable with it anymore. It's good to step back and remember the big picture - things go in cycles and we're near the limits of the current price levels. Unless either the risk new entrants take on reaches extremely unwise levels (and they are already at very unwise levels) things cannot go much higher - and if they do this increases the vulnerability for a correction even more. The more likely option is that start to turn or stagnate at a greater or lesser speed. We'll see what happens - at present i'm not prepared to gamble - and really don't have the financial ability to gamble - on the first option, so it's take it easy and see how the second develops. There is also the reassuring backlog of economic history to point out that we have analysis and time on our side. I also would tend to side with Martin Wolf rather than an estate agent in any intellectual discussion about markets - and he's on our side on this one. So hold on in there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iangilb Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 I did some economics reading last night in order to understand a thread I was contributing to. I read all about Money Illusion and Inflation Ramps. Thinking all this through, I am now much more of a bear than I have been for 5-6 years! Look at the last three corrections, these all occured when inflation began to go higher from a sustained low position. The illusion which artifically inflates prices goes and the inflation ramp that makes mortgages affordable is raised. I now know why HPCs happen and hey, guess what is around the corner!!! If you need cheering up, look these up on the Internet. I do need cheering up because what I have learnt shatters a previous economic model I was working to. I am now not sure my position is now that clever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rachel Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 you obviously can't afford a house then, or you want one thats too big for what you can afford with your income. that's your income's problem, not the fault of the house price! what about house prices being 9x average income in the South West? (average income being £21k) i mean small 1 bed flats in Bristol start at about £120k now (that's in the crudier areas), how can wages be the problem? it's the house prices being extortionate! some posters on this forum are living in cloud 'cuckoo' land! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sam Posted August 18, 2006 Author Share Posted August 18, 2006 i live in one of the most expensive towns outside the South eAst....one of those places where you get south east house prices with northern incomes and ever since 2001 when prices reached 2.5 times their 1998 level i have had no idea how people afford to buy . yet prices have risen another 50% since 2001!......Ave income in town about £21k and ave HP about £225k... Self-cert morgages are the only explanation......With a 15% deposit you can borrow as much as you like..... A couple each earning £20k could borrow about £260k (6.5 times joint income)with a £45k deposit....and buy a £300k house....The payments on an interest-only long term fix at 6% apr would come to about £300 a week.... equivalent to about 50% of the couple's net income...... No-one previously in this country has spent half their take home income on an interest-only mortgage but my point is that it's affordable.........even if not an ideal situation to be in............................................................. Self cert has played a big part in this mess, if Our Government was truly against the young being priced out of property, and against what is at the end of the day a crime(fraud), it could quite easily stop all the madness. MATCH UP SELF CERT APPLICATIONS WITH INCOME TAX RECORDS, IF THEY DO NOT MATCH UP, UP IN FRONT OF THE JUDGE. but of course the Government would never do that, miracle economy and all that. You have received loads of plausible reasons - house sales falling through (wow that's never happened before) and even estate agents putting boards up outside their own homes. Simple, unpalatable fact is - houses have been selling like hot cakes for the first half of this year, prices have gone up a bit and lots of houses have sold. 2006 looks to be a record year for the number of residential property transactions. Have a look at this table - it shows clearly the 'crash' happened last quarter of 2004 and first two quarters of 2005. Last two quarters of 2005 showed some recovery. Watch and wait for that to get updated with 2006 figures. They will be amongst the highest judging by the number of mortgage approvals. I do not want you to be right, but i think you are partly, but for all the wrong reasons. These people are only thinking short term(2/3 years), then the s**t hits the fan, sad thing for me and people like me is that we have to wait for the stupid to be burnt before we can buy again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adibrown Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 Self cert has played a big part in this mess, if Our Government was truly against the young being priced out of property, and against what is at the end of the day a crime(fraud), it could quite easily stop all the madness. MATCH UP SELF CERT APPLICATIONS WITH INCOME TAX RECORDS, IF THEY DO NOT MATCH UP, UP IN FRONT OF THE JUDGE. but of course the Government would never do that, miracle economy and all that. You've obviously never owned your own business Sam. As a director of a Ltd Company and a shareholder my income tax rarely matches up to my actual income as most of my money comes in the shape of company loans and dividends. It would take the courts years to work through most self certs as income cannot be measured so easily these days. This is why self certs were originally created. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 (edited) Sam, The reason you're perplexed as to why/how the market has kept going is that you got brainwashed into thinking a crash was a certainty, by the zealots on this Forum. In their minds, there's no room for doubt; everyone who disagrees with them is dismissed as a "muppet" or "sheeple". It's all very persuasive to anyone who wants to believe it i.e. someone who wants lower prices. Meanwhile, in the outside world, no-one thinks there will be a crash, people are getting on with their lives and buying houses. You're losing out to them if you fall for the bears' advice It's a parallel universe here, where all the stats are dismissed as lies, anyone who doesn't believe in a crash is an evil "VI" The biggest lie is that in the past, everyone was able to buy a 4 bed detached house out of their small change, and that those same people have all conspired to shaft the young. (No-one asks themselves the obvious question i.e. if prices were always so affordable, why did we bother with slums, poor housing, tower blocks, council houses and cramped living) Try to look at other viewpoints, Sam. Apart from brief periods in history e.g. 1995 to 2000, it's usually hard to buy a house, and the best policy is to save hard and buy yourself something, as sson as you feel you want to. Prices won't crash. The only people who think they will are the few bears on this forum. Edited August 18, 2006 by Casual Observer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Immigrant Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 Cambridge is not doing quite as well lately according to the latest ODPM data: Cambridge £385,496 Q: -16.6% YoY: 1.9% 49 City Of Peterborough £215,766 Q: -3.6% YoY: 3.7% 272 South Cambridgeshire £342,484 Q: 1.1% Yoy: -16.4% 290 Sources: England and Wales Land Registry of England and Wales. The information above is based on figures provided by the Land Registry of England and Wales. Figures for England and Wales are for the period April to June 2006. Even the YoY positive at 1.9% was poor and the dramatic crash* in the last Q shows all is not well out East. _______________ * Crash conditions exist when, in any given Q, prices fall by 5% or more, or by 20% or more in a 12 month period. Could you post a link please? A lot of posters (on here or the other side, can't remember which) have been saying that Cambridge really has been booming lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northern numpty Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 you'll be waiting forever, pal! sort of promotes happy slapping this dimwit! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Baron Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 This might help cheer you up - St Neots Not far from Cambridge, and with the A428 improvments the commute to cambridge will improve a lot next year. St Neots was a beautiful market town before WW2, but from the 1950s onwards it was blighted with the 'London Overspill' (as it was then called) resulting in a huge influx of light industries bringing with them the 'chav brigade'. By the 1980s it was a pretty horrible place and regarded as 'very rough' by the rest of Cambridgeshire. However St Neots has improved considerably over the last five years and it's now not a bad place to live. Alongside the A1 it offers very good north/south links and its railway station is on the main East Coast line from the north into London offering fast direct services into the City. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firangi Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 Prices won't crash. The only people who think they will are the few bears on this forum. Then I think you have a very limited knoweldge of the world ( and also economics) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 What worries me is that lending criteria seems to be loosening recently, always was around 2.75 x gross joint annual income, now can get 5x or more joint, and you don't have to look very far. This means there will be even more money splashing around to hike up prices. :angry: Heaven help them...lambs to the slaughter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karen1000 Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 Haven't been on this site for what must be about a year IIRC. How's tricks? Are people still living in a fantasy world where the housing market is constantly on the brink of a humungous crash? Are there any signs of even brief flirtations with realty? All the best, Neitherbullnorbear No, they are still dreaming of "the crash", highlighting any item of bad news, ignoring positive statistics, and even proclaiming "the crash has begun" etc. I've never actually seen a man with a "end of the world is nigh" board, but I feel as though I have, having spent some time reading the informed and not so informed stuff on this site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bucephalus Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 The reason you're perplexed as to why/how the market has kept going is that you got brainwashed into thinking a crash was a certainty, by the zealots on this Forum. In their minds, there's no room for doubt; everyone who disagrees with them is dismissed as a "muppet" or "sheeple". It's all very persuasive to anyone who wants to believe it i.e. someone who wants lower prices. It is certainly true that there are zealots on this forum with no room for doubt in their mind, which is of course a ridiculous positiona nd I say this as a bear myself. Meanwhile, in the outside world, no-one thinks there will be a crash, people are getting on with their lives and buying houses. You're losing out to them if you fall for the bears' advice This is untrue however. There are those in the "outside world" who believe in a crash. See the front page of this site for examples. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinC Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 (edited) There is truly one thing that I don't understand about this website.....it is a website full of people that are debating the realities of borrowing often huge amounts of money to buy something which is often the main posession in most of our lives, yet almost every forum turns into a primary school playground argument. It is this more than the state of the economy which scares me about our country and this is especially underlined when people start quoting their job titles at each other like they are bragging about being the milk monitor! Edited August 18, 2006 by JustinC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Wolf Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 i live in one of the most expensive towns outside the South eAst....one of those places where you get south east house prices with northern incomes and ever since 2001 when prices reached 2.5 times their 1998 level i have had no idea how people afford to buy . yet prices have risen another 50% since 2001!......Ave income in town about £21k and ave HP about £225k... Self-cert morgages are the only explanation......With a 15% deposit you can borrow as much as you like..... A couple each earning £20k could borrow about £260k (6.5 times joint income)with a £45k deposit....and buy a £300k house....The payments on an interest-only long term fix at 6% apr would come to about £300 a week.... equivalent to about 50% of the couple's net income...... No-one previously in this country has spent half their take home income on an interest-only mortgage but my point is that it's affordable.........even if not an ideal situation to be in............................................................. This is myself and my long term girlfriend, this is 1 wage per month going on the house. What happens when i fall over and injure myself and can no longer work for 3 months £85.00 a week sick pay wont cover it? What happens if interests rates rise up over the next few years when fixed rate runs out? What happens if i WANT a life and not be a slave to the bank? What happens when we want children we are 26? What the f***? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 these poeple who don't have a property are brave enough to take a position against the majority of the british public. Or as I like to refer to them as, Sheeple! Anyone who has a house is one of the "sheeple"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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